SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

PTrackerLA · #321 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Nov 09, 2007 7:38 pm

Although we don't need severe weather, we really could use rain next week. We haven't had rain in 3-4 weeks and with long-term forecasts for this winter predicting drought conditions developing we need all that we can get right now.

Extremeweatherguy · #322 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:16 am

Well the 12z NAM and 12z GFS do not agree with each other at all...

12z NAM (84 hrs) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_084l.gif
^^ULL moving into west TX^^

12z GFS (84 hrs) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_084l.gif
^^ULL over the baja of California^^

Then, there is the 12z CMC which seems to agree more with the NAM...

12z CMC (84 hrs) = http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_084.jpg
^^ULL moving into west TX^^

The CMC then goes on to show a strong frontal passage during late Wednesday...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg

Basically...the GFS is the warmer and drier scenario and the CMC and NAM are the cooler and wetter scenarios. I, for one, hope the NAM and CMC are right and not the GFS! The GFS is not all bad new though. Beyond the first 4-6 warm, muggy days, it does show a pretty powerful front arriving next Friday. If this front played out, then we would be talking about strong CAA during late Friday and then lows possibly in the 30s next weekend. Take a look...

(12z GFS) Next Fri. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_150l.gif

(12z GFS) Next Sat. morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_168l.gif

(12z GFS) Next Sat. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_174l.gif

(12z GFS) Next Sun. morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_192l.gif

Yankeegirl · #323 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:23 pm

Ok, I am getting bored with all of this quiet, warm weather! I really would like to get fall back like what we had a few weeks ago...

Ptarmigan · #324 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:45 pm

Looks like our chance for rain has lowered.

Extremeweatherguy · #325 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:53 pm

The last few runs of the GFS have become more and more aggressive with midweek's front. It still doesn't look like it will be very strong or that exciting, but it does look like it might be capable of knocking temperatures back down to normal or perhaps slightly below normal for a day or two. This is a big change from just a day ago when the GFS had backed away from the midwek front completely and showed warm weather lasting through next Fri/Sat.

If tonight's 00z GFS is right, then we might even manage to see a <70˚ day on Thursday and a <50˚ low on Thursday night.

southerngale · #326 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Nov 12, 2007 1:52 am

EWG, our forecasted high for Wednesday is 87° - the record high for that day is 86° set in 1978. We could break it. Even after the front, the highs the next few days after it are expected to be 74°, 76°, and 78° - normal for those days is 71°, 71°, and 70° - it doesn't look like (at this time) that the front will even get us down to normal, much less below normal... looks pretty weak.

It sure doesn't feel like November. I hope there's a drastic change by Thanksgiving. A warm Thanksgiving is just wrong.

Extremeweatherguy · #327 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 12, 2007 7:04 am

Latest NWS forecast is calling for a high of 74˚ and a low of 52˚ on Thursday. However, the 00z MOS guidance indicates a high of only 71˚ and a low of 49˚...so we will see. If the MOS is right, then we will be very near normal, but if the NWS is right, then we will be just slightly above normal. Either way, both scenarios are a good 14˚+ cooler than what we will see on Wednesday, so it will feel great for sure!

JenBayles · #328 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Nov 12, 2007 1:38 pm

Right now I could care less about temps. We need rain!

Yankeegirl · #329 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Nov 12, 2007 1:41 pm

Rain would be good too... But i need to "feel" like the holidays are actually right around the corner!!

Extremeweatherguy · #330 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 12, 2007 5:57 pm

The afternoon forecast from the NWS has been inched a bit cooler. Highs now predicted to be in the lower 70s Thursday and Friday with a low in the lower 50s Thursday night. This could still be too warm though (especially for lows), but the exact temperatures will all really depend on cloud cover. If we can manage to clear out some, then 40s are definitely possible Thursday night.

Extremeweatherguy · #331 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 12, 2007 11:05 pm

00z GFS continues to look even stronger with Thursday's front. It is now showing good CAA starting Thursday morning with highs staying below 70˚ during the day and then a low well into the 40s Thursday night.

Extremeweatherguy · #332 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Nov 13, 2007 6:40 am

Latest NWS forecast is significantly cooler...

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 71.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72.

Extremeweatherguy · #333 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Nov 13, 2007 3:50 pm

Thursday night looks pretty chilly! The latest forecast from the NWS looks like this...

Conroe - 41˚
Spring - 42˚
IAH - 43˚
Downtown Houston - 44˚
Sugar Land - 42˚
Galveston - 57˚

Extremeweatherguy · #334 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 14, 2007 6:41 am

Here are the new forecast lows (as of the 6am Wed. morning forecast)...

Conroe - 36˚
Spring - 37-39˚
IAH - 41˚
Downtown Houston - 44˚
Sugar Land - 40˚
Galveston - 54˚

Extremeweatherguy · #335 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 14, 2007 8:56 pm

Well the front has already passed through Waco, Austin, and now even Brenham. It is only a matter of time before it reaches us. According to the NWS, it should be here before midnight...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/emds/hgx/data/1.jpg

BTW - The cold front shows up quite well on radar ( http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999 )

#336 Postby **Diva** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 6:46 am

VERY windy here this AM. I haven't ventured outside yet to check the temp. The wind gusts woke me up earlier this morning though. Sounds like it was a strong front.

Extremeweatherguy · #337 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 7:12 am

Going to be a cold one tonight! Most places will fall into the upper 30s or lower 40s and northern sections of SE TX/SW LA (as well as the normally colder places, such as Conroe) will fall into the lower to middle 30s! Time to get out those jackets. :cold:

Extremeweatherguy · #338 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 4:58 pm

The NWS is now calling for a low of 39˚ tonight at IAH. If that plays out, then it will be IAH's first "official" night in the 30s.

Extremeweatherguy · #339 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 5:03 pm

Here is a look at north Houston's first Thanksgiving forecast from the NWS...

Thanksgiving Day: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.

Yankeegirl · #340 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Nov 15, 2007 6:30 pm

Wow! Its chilly outside!! I have officially turned on my heater for the first time this year in the house... its smells like something is burning... yummy! The smell of winter! :cold:

SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

Re: SE TX/SW LA Discussion - Stormy early next week?

Re: SE TX/SW LA Discussion - Next cool front = Wed.

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