Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

I know that it doesn't all have to do about numbers, but would the damage that will probably be caused in Canada and possibly the NE US by an ET cyclone be included in the total when it goes up for retirement considerations?

That can happen, although I don't know of any storm that has been retired due to its effects after becoming extratropical.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020049
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 31 20071102
003730 2747N 07731W 8424 01494 0017 +148 +147 037042 043 034 000 00
003800 2746N 07730W 8424 01492 0017 +146 +146 038044 046 034 001 00
003830 2745N 07729W 8425 01491 0015 +146 +146 040043 045 035 001 00
003900 2744N 07727W 8423 01492 0013 +147 +143 041042 043 033 001 00
003930 2743N 07726W 8423 01489 0007 +154 +151 039040 043 034 004 00
004000 2742N 07724W 8426 01485 0008 +151 +151 034039 042 034 001 00
004030 2742N 07723W 8415 01494 0013 +140 +140 042043 045 037 003 00
004100 2741N 07721W 8421 01487 0005 +151 +151 042044 045 039 003 00
004130 2740N 07720W 8424 01483 0003 +152 +145 043046 047 038 003 00
004200 2739N 07718W 8420 01484 9996 +160 +134 040044 045 036 003 00
004230 2738N 07717W 8420 01483 9993 +165 +125 040043 044 036 003 00
004300 2738N 07715W 8420 01481 9990 +169 +124 037041 042 037 001 00
004330 2737N 07713W 8422 01479 9984 +172 +125 029041 043 039 002 00
004400 2736N 07712W 8427 01472 9981 +172 +132 029041 044 041 004 00
004430 2735N 07710W 8421 01476 9986 +165 +128 031041 044 042 003 00
004500 2734N 07709W 8418 01480 9978 +175 +123 034042 042 042 002 00
004530 2733N 07707W 8423 01469 9973 +180 +123 032042 042 043 002 00
004600 2733N 07706W 8422 01469 9970 +181 +123 030043 044 045 002 00
004630 2732N 07704W 8421 01471 9968 +183 +123 028043 043 045 002 00
004700 2731N 07703W 8419 01470 9966 +183 +129 026042 043 043 004 00
$$
;

Starting back towards the center.

[brunota2003]

Wow...

THIS FORECAST PATTERN
RESULTS IN A TRACK FOR NOEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST
COAST...AND WITH THE FORECAST EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WIND EVENT FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

So, I missed a lot while I was gone...With this new data, what are the chances higher winds come on the NC coast? The very coastal counties (Cateret, Mainland Hyde and Dare) are under wind advisories and The OBX are at High Wind Warnings...what are the chances of those being pushed inland, now? Especially if the track shifts westward? They are already saying 20-25 mph here, so almost advisory criteria as it is...Any westward shift, resulting in much higher winds, would catch a bunch of people off guard...

Also, most importantly, what kind of westward shift? (as in, how far west would we be talking?)

[brunota2003]

Nah, just the magic of ET processes and the Gulf Stream...scary part? Lots more Gulf Stream to go over...

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020059
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 32 20071102
004730 2730N 07701W 8422 01469 9965 +182 +128 026046 047 045 001 00
004800 2729N 07659W 8419 01468 9964 +182 +124 025047 048 045 002 00
004830 2728N 07658W 8418 01468 9962 +183 +124 025048 049 045 003 00
004900 2727N 07656W 8427 01456 9959 +185 +133 025046 048 046 003 00
004930 2727N 07655W 8424 01461 9975 +153 +153 028047 049 048 006 00
005000 2726N 07653W 8418 01463 9970 +156 +154 028050 052 047 007 00
005030 2725N 07651W 8420 01461 9967 +157 +157 033054 055 048 008 00
005100 2724N 07650W 8425 01451 9968 +147 +147 040059 062 048 006 00
005130 2723N 07648W 8418 01453 9961 +153 +153 049061 062 049 005 00
005200 2723N 07647W 8420 01445 9951 +160 +160 059064 064 050 001 00
005230 2722N 07646W 8426 01432 9944 +159 +159 059063 064 050 003 00
005300 2721N 07645W 8418 01438 9940 +158 +158 059066 068 051 004 00
005330 2720N 07643W 8423 01429 9937 +159 +159 060066 067 050 005 00
005400 2720N 07642W 8422 01428 9934 +157 +157 060065 066 053 006 00
005430 2719N 07641W 8424 01425 9933 +155 +155 058066 067 054 007 00
005500 2718N 07639W 8423 01425 9931 +157 +157 060069 070 052 007 00
005530 2718N 07638W 8421 01424 9923 +163 +163 057066 067 053 007 00
005600 2717N 07637W 8416 01423 9911 +175 +152 054063 065 052 006 00
005630 2716N 07636W 8425 01409 9891 +199 +150 059056 059 058 009 00
005700 2716N 07634W 8414 01412 9884 +200 +167 058056 057 064 019 00
$$
;

70 kt FL, 64 kt SFMR in NW quad...

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020109
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 33 20071102
005730 2715N 07633W 8427 01400 9905 +162 +162 051051 052 070 029 00
005800 2714N 07631W 8430 01407 9935 +132 +132 035053 055 069 043 00
005830 2713N 07630W 8411 01434 9947 +126 +126 032058 068 065 032 00
005900 2712N 07628W 8408 01436 9941 +134 +134 037070 073 065 025 00
005930 2712N 07627W 8410 01428 9917 +161 +161 063060 064 064 012 00
010000 2711N 07626W 8427 01402 9888 +202 +180 080041 048 066 012 00
010030 2710N 07624W 8364 01469 9917 +147 +147 067037 044 065 015 00
010100 2710N 07623W 8360 01461 9906 +147 +147 077040 045 069 020 03
010130 2709N 07622W 8348 01466 9900 +145 +145 081040 054 069 025 05
010200 2708N 07620W 8401 01421 9905 +149 +149 106026 032 059 024 03
010230 2707N 07620W 8438 01382 9896 +164 +164 123030 031 038 010 03
010300 2705N 07620W 8442 01376 9887 +175 +175 115027 030 035 007 03
010330 2704N 07621W 8451 01363 9883 +177 +177 104027 028 029 007 00
010400 2702N 07621W 8474 01335 9876 +181 +181 098025 026 030 007 03
010430 2701N 07622W 8429 01375 9870 +177 +177 086020 021 030 006 00
010500 2659N 07622W 8429 01369 9864 +178 +178 072016 017 031 007 03
010530 2657N 07622W 8430 01363 9859 +177 +177 060013 014 032 006 00
010600 2656N 07621W 8418 01372 9849 +186 +186 047015 016 024 004 03
010630 2654N 07620W 8422 01364 9838 +197 +189 039017 018 024 003 00
010700 2653N 07619W 8419 01364 9837 +198 +181 047010 014 028 002 03
$$
;

73 kt FL, 70 kt SFMR, pressure 984mb and not in the core yet...

[CrazyC83]

AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 34 20071102
010730 2653N 07617W 8421 01361 9835 +196 +181 106007 009 030 001 00
010800 2652N 07616W 8430 01348 9836 +187 +187 132016 018 030 003 00
010830 2651N 07615W 8429 01348 9830 +193 +192 142021 025 030 002 00
010900 2649N 07614W 8422 01351 9825 +196 +188 152024 025 032 002 00
010930 2648N 07613W 8423 01349 9823 +198 +182 162028 030 036 003 00
011000 2647N 07611W 8429 01341 9820 +205 +174 172030 032 038 002 00
011030 2646N 07610W 8423 01348 9820 +202 +178 173035 038 042 001 00
011100 2646N 07610W 8423 01348 9817 +203 +181 173038 040 043 002 00
011130 2644N 07608W 8416 01355 9819 +203 +177 183040 042 046 002 00
011200 2643N 07607W 8436 01337 9819 +209 +173 182043 044 047 003 00
011230 2642N 07606W 8418 01359 9829 +199 +176 181045 047 046 002 00
011300 2641N 07605W 8426 01355 9836 +193 +176 183049 050 043 003 00
011330 2640N 07604W 8431 01349 9837 +197 +162 185051 052 046 003 00
011400 2640N 07604W 8431 01349 9838 +198 +158 183053 055 046 002 00
011430 2639N 07602W 8420 01366 9856 +179 +163 185054 054 047 002 00
011500 2638N 07601W 8420 01369 9848 +192 +164 187057 058 047 002 00
011530 2637N 07600W 8430 01363 9852 +191 +168 185059 060 045 003 00
011600 2636N 07559W 8417 01378 9855 +189 +163 188062 063 048 002 00
011630 2635N 07558W 8428 01366 9852 +197 +156 191065 066 049 002 00
011700 2634N 07557W 8422 01375 9854 +195 +155 193065 066 049 001 00
$$
;

982mb but with a 45 kt SFMR at that point (does that support 978mb?). Peak FL winds 66 kt this time.

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive storm. Too many people died though.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020129
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 35 20071102
011730 2633N 07556W 8429 01371 9858 +195 +155 193065 065 051 002 00
011800 2632N 07555W 8427 01373 9854 +206 +148 194064 066 049 003 00
011830 2631N 07554W 8426 01377 9851 +217 +141 196063 063 049 000 00
011900 2630N 07552W 8425 01381 9852 +222 +138 200064 065 049 001 00
011930 2629N 07551W 8429 01378 9854 +222 +136 203065 066 051 001 00
012000 2628N 07550W 8431 01378 9856 +224 +137 200064 065 051 000 00
012030 2627N 07549W 8422 01393 9858 +225 +141 202062 063 051 001 00
012100 2626N 07548W 8426 01392 9863 +222 +147 201061 061 050 001 00
012130 2625N 07547W 8427 01394 9871 +211 +160 201059 060 047 000 00
012200 2624N 07546W 8427 01397 9879 +207 +163 201060 061 046 000 00
012230 2623N 07545W 8428 01403 9889 +197 +167 199064 065 046 001 00
012300 2622N 07544W 8426 01405 9896 +188 +175 198065 066 045 001 00
012330 2622N 07544W 8426 01405 9898 +187 +177 198064 065 045 000 03
012400 2620N 07542W 8424 01413 9907 +182 +171 197064 064 045 000 00
012430 2619N 07541W 8425 01415 9916 +172 +172 199060 061 048 002 00
012500 2618N 07540W 8415 01426 9925 +158 +158 201059 060 046 003 00
012530 2617N 07539W 8421 01422 9926 +157 +157 199061 062 047 006 00
012600 2617N 07538W 8424 01422 9919 +174 +174 201059 060 048 004 00
012630 2616N 07536W 8422 01427 9916 +180 +180 201058 059 048 004 00
012700 2615N 07535W 8428 01420 9918 +180 +180 202061 062 046 003 00
$$
;

66 kt FL in SE quad.

[Thunder44]

235
URNT12 KNHC 020130
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 02/01:07:20Z
B. 26 deg 53 min N
076 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1282 m
D. 70 kt
E. 326 deg 26 nm
F. 038 deg 074 kt
G. 332 deg 022 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 18 C/ 1530 m
J. 20 C/ 1534 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF306 1216A NOEL OB 10
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NE QUAD 23:41:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 337 / 19NM
;

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 020131
XXAA 52018 99269 70763 08066 88999 77999
31313 09608 80107
61616 AF306 1216A NOEL OB 12
62626 EYE SPL 2688N07630W 0109 MBL WND 11024 AEV 00000 DLM WND 10
518 983864 WL150 11027 080 =
XXBB 52018 99269 70763 08066 99983 25610
21212 00983 10525 11965 11528 22905 09013 33891 08512 44864 11009
55843 13009
31313 09608 80107
61616 AF306 1216A NOEL OB 12
62626 EYE SPL 2688N07630W 0109 MBL WND 11024 AEV 00000 DLM WND 10
518 983864 WL150 11027 080 =

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020139
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 36 20071102
012730 2614N 07534W 8427 01423 9921 +180 +180 201061 061 046 002 00
012800 2614N 07534W 8427 01423 9924 +174 +174 199061 063 046 004 00
012830 2612N 07532W 8425 01426 9925 +174 +174 199064 065 045 002 00
012900 2611N 07531W 8430 01422 9921 +180 +180 195066 066 045 002 00
012930 2610N 07530W 8427 01425 9921 +182 +182 194065 067 047 004 00
013000 2609N 07529W 8427 01429 9923 +181 +181 195063 064 049 008 00
013030 2608N 07528W 8434 01420 9938 +159 +159 195065 065 049 011 00
013100 2607N 07527W 8424 01432 9945 +153 +153 198064 066 049 010 00
013130 2606N 07526W 8428 01432 9939 +167 +167 199061 063 050 007 00
013200 2605N 07525W 8427 01436 9935 +181 +181 202060 060 049 006 00
013230 2604N 07524W 8429 01437 9939 +178 +178 196062 063 047 004 00
013300 2603N 07523W 8424 01444 9946 +170 +170 197063 064 047 005 00
013330 2602N 07522W 8428 01440 9951 +163 +163 199061 063 048 007 00
013400 2601N 07521W 8420 01449 9945 +176 +176 201062 063 049 005 00
013430 2600N 07520W 8416 01456 9943 +180 +180 201062 063 047 003 00
013500 2559N 07519W 8307 01571 9944 +176 +172 203062 063 047 002 00
013530 2558N 07518W 8134 01753 9949 +161 +161 201061 061 047 001 00
013600 2557N 07516W 7961 01940 9950 +154 +154 203061 062 047 001 00
013630 2556N 07515W 7779 02139 9952 +143 +143 204061 061 048 002 00
013700 2555N 07514W 7593 02339 9948 +134 +134 203058 059 048 002 03
$$
;

Could they be lifting to the 700mb level? 67 kt FL

[Ed Mahmoud]

Note the 74°C in the center, while temperatures are situated in the 50s around the highest flight-level winds. Noel's transitioning to a baroclinic ET system.

74ºC in the center? This is header for Category 7 strength.




(Just messin)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just noticed the GDFL has cat 2 winds over/near Boston.

That would affect the passing game, favoring the team with the better ground attack. I wonder if Bowden is already changing some of the plays they will run in practice.

[Derek Ortt]

981 pressure, 24KT winds with the eye dropsonde

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020149
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 37 20071102
013730 2554N 07513W 7411 02550 9944 +128 +128 206060 061 999 999 03
013800 2553N 07512W 7202 02789 9946 +115 +111 208061 062 999 999 03
013830 2552N 07511W 6999 03033 9941 +109 +096 211058 060 050 001 03
013900 2551N 07510W 6967 03078 9943 +107 +107 211057 057 051 000 01
013930 2550N 07509W 6967 03079 9990 +107 +999 212058 058 051 000 01
014000 2549N 07507W 6970 03073 9990 +106 +999 212059 059 052 000 01
014030 2548N 07506W 6967 03078 9951 +105 +102 212060 060 051 000 01
014100 2547N 07505W 6965 03083 9950 +105 +092 211061 061 050 000 00
014130 2545N 07504W 6967 03082 9953 +105 +096 211062 063 049 000 00
014200 2544N 07503W 6964 03086 9951 +107 +094 211061 063 048 001 00
014230 2543N 07502W 6976 03073 9956 +105 +100 210064 064 048 003 00
014300 2542N 07500W 6963 03091 9956 +104 +100 211063 064 046 002 00
014330 2541N 07459W 6964 03091 9958 +104 +100 211065 067 046 002 00
014400 2540N 07458W 6965 03088 9963 +099 +099 209067 069 046 006 00
014430 2539N 07457W 6971 03081 9964 +098 +098 211065 067 046 004 00
014500 2538N 07456W 6962 03094 9956 +103 +103 212062 064 047 001 00
014530 2537N 07455W 6970 03085 9962 +103 +103 214066 067 047 004 00
014600 2536N 07454W 6959 03100 9970 +097 +097 213071 074 047 005 00
014630 2535N 07453W 6970 03083 9961 +102 +102 216070 073 048 007 00
014700 2534N 07451W 6965 03086 9965 +097 +097 214074 076 050 005 00
$$
;

76 kt FL (supports 70 kt with the current flight level)