Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I was chatting with a friend who was going to drive down from Northern Main to see me on Sunday morning (I live around the Saint Andrews area, across from Calais Maine). He ask what I thought of the storm. I told him to postpone the trip; glad I did looking at this new data.

[JTD]

...Air Force reconnaissance plane finds Hurricane Noel as it moves
away from the Bahamas...

a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and
northwestern Bahamas. The watch and warning for the Bahamas will
likely be discontinued tonight.

A Gale Warning remains in effect for Bermuda.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of recently-upgraded Hurricane
Noel was located near latitude 26.5 north...longitude 76.5 west or
about 115 miles...190 km...north-northeast of Nassau in the Bahamas
and about 810 miles...1300 west-southwest of Bermuda.

Noel has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the
north-northeast near 17 mph...29 km/hr...away from the Bahamas. An
additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120 km/hr...
with higher gusts. Noel is now a category one hurricane on the
Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. However...it is expected to lose
tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. Noel should
then strengthen and increase in size as an extratropical cyclone.
Interests along the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward
should consult statements issued by their local NWS forecast
office.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...and
these winds are limited to the north and east of the center.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
mainly to the north and east of the center.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the minimum central
pressure has dropped to 981 mb...28.97 inches.

Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.

Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
inches in the Bahamas...with possible maximum amounts of 18 inches.
Additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected
over eastern Cuba...where these rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of an inch or so are
possible across the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...26.5 N...76.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75
mph. Minimum central pressure...981 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[CrazyC83]

No 8 pm advisory - a sure sign there should be a full special advisory shortly. I am constantly refreshing the NHC page.

[JTD]

NHC has classified it as Hurricane Noel. See the advisories thread.

[RL3AO]

Just an intermediate advisory.

[MiamiensisWx]

Note the 74°C in the center, while temperatures are situated in the 50s around the highest flight-level winds. Noel's transitioning to a baroclinic ET system.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020009
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 27 20071102
235730 2742N 07509W 8419 01493 0015 +143 +143 123055 056 047 012 03
235800 2743N 07512W 8426 01487 0012 +146 +146 121053 054 047 010 00
235830 2743N 07514W 8419 01492 0017 +138 +138 120051 052 047 011 00
235900 2743N 07516W 8424 01487 0016 +140 +140 123051 051 047 011 00
235930 2744N 07518W 8423 01487 0011 +144 +144 114052 053 048 010 00
000000 2744N 07521W 8423 01485 0014 +138 +138 115054 055 049 014 00
000030 2744N 07523W 8424 01486 0013 +137 +137 113053 054 052 015 00
000100 2745N 07525W 8423 01484 0013 +134 +134 112055 057 051 015 01
000130 2745N 07528W 8421 01487 9990 +134 +999 110053 054 050 015 01
000200 2745N 07530W 8423 01482 9990 +137 +999 112055 057 049 015 01
000230 2745N 07532W 8424 01483 9990 +142 +999 114057 057 049 012 01
000300 2746N 07535W 8421 01484 0008 +140 +140 109058 060 049 012 00
000330 2746N 07537W 8421 01484 0007 +141 +141 104060 061 048 012 00
000400 2746N 07540W 8417 01486 0005 +141 +141 101059 060 049 012 00
000430 2746N 07542W 8422 01481 0005 +140 +140 096060 061 049 012 00
000500 2747N 07545W 8427 01476 0001 +143 +143 094061 062 049 010 00
000530 2747N 07547W 8423 01478 0004 +139 +139 097061 063 050 012 00
000600 2747N 07549W 8417 01487 0000 +146 +146 097062 063 051 011 00
000630 2748N 07552W 8427 01476 0007 +136 +136 090058 059 049 011 00
000700 2748N 07554W 8419 01485 0006 +139 +139 088054 054 050 012 00
$$
;

Turning to the west now.

[cycloneye]

wxman57,one more hurricane for the pool in your office. But you will still be short of your number right?

[Cyclone1]

Wow..... 981.

[CrazyC83]

What is the chance of this strengthening to Category 2 before becoming extratropical?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020019
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 28 20071102
000730 2748N 07557W 8418 01482 0004 +141 +141 093057 060 048 011 00
000800 2748N 07559W 8419 01486 0012 +134 +134 090057 059 047 013 00
000830 2749N 07601W 8432 01475 0010 +139 +139 086054 056 046 013 00
000900 2749N 07604W 8420 01486 0012 +135 +135 087048 050 047 014 00
000930 2749N 07604W 8420 01486 0010 +137 +137 084047 048 047 012 00
001000 2749N 07608W 8422 01486 0006 +145 +145 085044 045 048 013 00
001030 2750N 07610W 8420 01485 0007 +142 +142 089043 043 048 016 00
001100 2750N 07613W 8424 01482 0010 +140 +140 083042 043 051 017 00
001130 2750N 07615W 8420 01491 0002 +155 +155 080042 043 048 012 00
001200 2750N 07617W 8424 01487 0010 +144 +144 079042 043 048 013 00
001230 2751N 07619W 8422 01488 0020 +134 +134 074044 044 050 014 00
001300 2751N 07622W 8422 01489 0010 +146 +146 064051 052 049 014 00
001330 2751N 07624W 8423 01486 0001 +159 +151 062054 054 044 011 00
001400 2751N 07626W 8423 01486 0000 +159 +155 060055 055 045 011 00
001430 2752N 07628W 8422 01487 9998 +162 +157 057054 054 045 010 00
001500 2752N 07631W 8422 01489 9999 +161 +158 053053 054 045 010 00
001530 2752N 07633W 8421 01489 0001 +158 +158 050053 054 044 011 00
001600 2752N 07635W 8423 01486 0000 +158 +147 049054 055 045 010 00
001630 2753N 07637W 8422 01485 0001 +158 +138 049054 055 046 009 00
001700 2753N 07639W 8420 01487 9999 +162 +140 050052 052 045 008 00
$$
;

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What is the chance of this strengthening to Category 2 before becoming extratropical?

Lets hope not, it's strong enough already.

However it does remind me of Hurricane Michael back in 2000, so anything is possible.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Models are trending back west again, and with an expanding circulation things will get nasty up and down the East Coast this weekend.

[RL3AO]

I just noticed the GDFL has cat 2 winds over/near Boston.

[DanKellFla]

Idunno this season is makin me ah crazy.
November Hurricane? Why not?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020029
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 29 20071102
001730 2753N 07642W 8423 01486 9998 +165 +138 049050 051 045 007 00
001800 2753N 07644W 8421 01489 9997 +167 +135 050048 049 045 007 00
001830 2754N 07646W 8422 01489 9994 +174 +133 050047 048 044 006 00
001900 2754N 07648W 8423 01485 9994 +173 +132 051047 048 044 008 00
001930 2754N 07650W 8423 01486 9993 +174 +129 051046 046 044 007 00
002000 2754N 07652W 8420 01488 9995 +171 +130 050046 047 046 006 00
002030 2754N 07654W 8422 01489 9999 +164 +137 045044 046 047 008 00
002100 2755N 07656W 8423 01486 9993 +172 +140 043043 044 046 008 00
002130 2755N 07659W 8423 01487 9994 +174 +129 043045 046 046 006 00
002200 2755N 07701W 8424 01488 9996 +169 +128 046047 048 043 004 00
002230 2755N 07703W 8422 01489 9998 +168 +130 048047 048 043 004 00
002300 2756N 07705W 8421 01490 0004 +159 +135 053048 048 040 002 00
002330 2756N 07707W 8425 01491 0011 +150 +143 059048 049 041 002 00
002400 2756N 07709W 8422 01494 0013 +149 +149 062045 046 039 004 00
002430 2756N 07712W 8421 01493 0018 +143 +143 056047 048 040 006 00
002500 2757N 07714W 8415 01504 0024 +137 +137 056043 047 040 006 00
002530 2757N 07716W 8424 01494 0019 +147 +147 057045 046 035 004 00
002600 2757N 07718W 8436 01484 0022 +146 +146 049046 048 037 003 00
002630 2757N 07720W 8408 01514 0021 +146 +146 054043 047 033 003 00
002700 2757N 07722W 8427 01495 0025 +143 +143 051045 045 034 002 00
$$

Working the NW quad.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL



New York City,Boston are among the cities that would get hurricane force winds in gusts if GFDL is correct.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 020039
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 30 20071102
002730 2758N 07724W 8417 01504 0028 +140 +140 051043 045 033 003 00
002800 2758N 07727W 8426 01497 0026 +145 +145 049042 043 033 001 00
002830 2758N 07729W 8423 01499 0026 +145 +145 047042 043 034 000 00
002900 2758N 07731W 8420 01505 0029 +143 +143 049041 042 034 002 00
002930 2759N 07733W 8423 01503 0028 +145 +145 044039 039 035 002 00
003000 2759N 07735W 8422 01504 0028 +144 +144 040039 040 034 002 00
003030 2759N 07737W 8420 01507 0028 +145 +145 037041 042 033 002 00
003100 2759N 07739W 8424 01503 0027 +150 +150 038041 041 031 002 00
003130 2759N 07741W 8418 01511 0031 +146 +146 041039 042 035 003 00
003200 2800N 07743W 8423 01511 0030 +152 +151 043041 043 034 001 03
003230 2758N 07745W 8419 01513 0031 +154 +151 038041 042 999 999 03
003300 2757N 07744W 8422 01509 0027 +158 +146 037040 040 028 003 03
003330 2756N 07742W 8425 01502 0026 +151 +151 035038 039 034 004 03
003400 2755N 07741W 8422 01505 0030 +143 +143 034037 038 035 003 00
003430 2754N 07740W 8422 01502 0022 +151 +151 034039 039 032 002 00
003500 2753N 07738W 8423 01500 0024 +145 +145 032038 039 030 002 00
003530 2752N 07737W 8421 01501 0024 +145 +145 036040 040 031 002 00
003600 2750N 07735W 8422 01499 0022 +146 +146 040038 039 031 002 00
003630 2749N 07734W 8422 01498 0021 +144 +144 042041 042 033 002 00
003700 2748N 07733W 8422 01495 0019 +146 +146 040042 043 033 001 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

WOCN31 CWHX 020000
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 01 NOVEMBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

... NOEL TO BECOME MAJOR FALL STORM FOR ATLANTIC CANADA ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.2 N AND LONGITUDE 76.7 W... ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES OR 145 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF NASSAU . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 990
MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS... 31 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
NOV 01 9.00 PM 26.2N 76.7W 990 60 111
NOV 02 9.00 AM 29.1N 74.8W 988 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 02 9.00 PM 32.5N 72.7W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 AM 36.7N 70.0W 982 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 PM 41.8N 66.6W 976 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 9.00 AM 47.0N 62.9W 971 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 9.00 PM 52.9N 58.6W 967 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 9.00 AM 56.4N 55.6W 965 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 9.00 PM 60.1N 53.5W 968 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO A MAJOR FALL STORM FOR MOST OF
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH WINDS HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING ATLANTIC COASTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS TROPICAL STORM NOEL TRANSFORMS INTO A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE MARITIMES. ANY WARNINGS
THAT ARE ISSUED WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT.
THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS WELL FOR THEIR REGIONS OF RESPONSIBILITY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH NOEL WHICH WILL BE A POST-
TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT REACHES CANADIAN WATERS. GALES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN IN SOUTHWESTERN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN
TO STORM FORCE. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. ANY WARNINGS THAT WILL BE ISSUED WILL LIKELY COME
TONIGHT AND WILL BE ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE
AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
FOLLOWING NHC 21Z GUIDANCE. NHC INDICATES THAT TRANSITION HAS
ALREADY BEGUN.

B. PROGNOSTIC
AS DISCUSSED IN 18Z BULLETIN WE ARE ADJUSTING THE TRACK WESTWARD NOW
THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE FULL SUITE OF DYNAMIC MODELS. THERE COULD EVEN
BE FURTHER MOVEMENT FARTHER WEST IN COMING FORECASTS.

THE CPS DIAGRAMS ARE SHOWING EITHER A CLASSIC ET OR A DEVELOPING
WARM SECLUSION WHICH COULD CARRY AN INTENSE WIND FIELD. THE HWRF
TRACK IS ACTUALLY THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY BUT WE STICK WITH MIDDLE
OF THE ENVELOPE FOR NOW. WE KNOW THAT THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR SOME
OF THE MODELS TO BE TOO FAR WEST SO WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP THERE
RIGHT AWAY.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
THE CURRENT TRACK LIKELY MEANS MORE RAIN FOR NB AND POTENTIALLY
MUCH LESS FOR NFLD. THE SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM WILL ALSO
LIKELY MEAN HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ALONG SOUTH FACING COASTS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
WIND RADII ARE NOT INCLUDED BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED BAROCLINIC NATURE
OF THE STORM WHEN IT ARRIVES BUT GALES SHOULD BE EXPECTED WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SHOULD THE WARM SECLUSION STRUCTURE MATERIALIZE
THIS COULD MEAN A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SHOWN
MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AS THE MAX WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
THIS DOES NOT NECESSARILY IMPLY THE NEED FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WIND WARNINGS.

END BOWYER/ROUSSEL


Aparently,they typed the advisory before NHC upgraded to hurricane.But the effects will be the same anyway being hurricane or extratropical.

[RL3AO]

I know that it doesn't all have to do about numbers, but would the damage that will probably be caused in Canada and possibly the NE US by an ET cyclone be included in the total when it goes up for retirement considerations?