Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Air Force Met]

981 BOOM

Ahhh the beauty of ET processes at work.

[CrazyC83]

Mixed signals. The 61 kt FL winds only support about 53 kt at the surface, but 67 kt SFMR supports an upgrade. I would say 60 kt as a blend of them unless new information comes in.

[RL3AO]

981 BOOM

Ahhh the beauty of ET processes at work.

Yep. Don't worry guys, the pressure is going to drop quickly and could be near 960 in 36 hours.

[CrazyC83]

981 BOOM

Ahhh the beauty of ET processes at work.

Yep. Don't worry guys, the pressure is going to drop quickly and could be near 960 in 36 hours.

By then it should be extratropical, but with the force of a Cat 2-3 hurricane...

[cpdaman]

yes it appears like it will be a bit different than your run of the mill noreasters

quite a bit south as well (to start)

[HURAKAN]

[deltadog03]

AFM, if they do find a cane..do they upgrade it briefly before ET is fully in effect?

[CrazyC83]

AFM, if they do find a cane..do they upgrade it briefly before ET is fully in effect?

Yes they would.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012349
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 25 20071101
233730 2703N 07553W 8422 01432 9990 +141 +999 131058 064 060 056 01
233800 2703N 07553W 8422 01432 9990 +140 +999 127057 059 058 049 01
233830 2705N 07550W 8403 01445 9990 +138 +999 124057 061 060 047 01
233900 2706N 07549W 8416 01432 9990 +139 +999 125065 069 061 041 01
233930 2707N 07548W 8421 01428 9944 +141 +141 126068 071 057 028 01
234000 2708N 07546W 8414 01435 9946 +138 +138 123075 078 055 017 01
234030 2709N 07545W 8425 01425 9944 +145 +145 122072 073 055 016 00
234100 2709N 07545W 8425 01425 9946 +147 +147 128075 079 056 015 00
234130 2711N 07543W 8420 01436 9952 +140 +140 128078 080 053 015 00
234200 2712N 07541W 8416 01445 9955 +142 +142 127075 077 056 014 00
234230 2713N 07540W 8420 01445 9957 +144 +144 121073 076 057 014 00
234300 2714N 07539W 8435 01430 9959 +145 +145 122071 072 057 016 00
234330 2714N 07538W 8415 01450 9958 +142 +142 121070 072 058 018 00
234400 2715N 07537W 8427 01442 9967 +137 +137 119066 068 056 022 00
234430 2716N 07535W 8425 01446 9969 +139 +139 121064 067 053 025 00
234500 2717N 07534W 8411 01467 9974 +142 +142 125062 063 053 023 00
234530 2718N 07533W 8427 01451 9977 +141 +141 124057 059 055 022 00
234600 2719N 07532W 8423 01457 9978 +140 +140 122056 057 056 023 00
234630 2720N 07530W 8428 01455 9981 +139 +139 122055 057 054 023 00
234700 2721N 07529W 8416 01469 9986 +136 +136 124055 056 054 022 00
$$
;

80 kt FL - I think we have a hurricane!

[Thunder44]

AFM, if they do find a cane..do they upgrade it briefly before ET is fully in effect?

It's really far from being ET at this time. Even though intensity may partially be induced by baroclinic processes.

[CrazyC83]

BREAKING: 80 kt FL winds found - I think we have a cane! That supports at least 65 kt, maybe 70 kt depending on the measure used.

[cycloneye]

81kts flight level winds

[CrazyC83]

Expect a special advisory around 8:15 to 8:30 pm to upgrade to Hurricane Noel. I'd say 65 kt at this point.

[HURAKAN]

[Air Force Met]

AFM, if they do find a cane..do they upgrade it briefly before ET is fully in effect?

Yes they would.

You are correct....and I stand corrected. I expected the ET transition to start spinning up very soon but didn't know that it had already done its dirty work. I thought the hurricane winds would be there right after transition or close enough the NHC would not pull the trigger...but they won't have a choice here. I suspect it will be ET by sometime tomorrow morning...so we'll have a cane for about 12 hours or so.

PS-If you look at the IR...its already starting to get a comma shape in the deep convection. Sure sign of the transition.

[CrazyC83]

AFM, if they do find a cane..do they upgrade it briefly before ET is fully in effect?

Yes they would.

You are correct....and I stand corrected. I expected the ET transition to start spinning up very soon but didn't know that it had already done its dirty work. I thought the hurricane winds would be there right after transition or close enough the NHC would not pull the trigger...but they won't have a choice here. I suspect it will be ET by sometime tomorrow morning...so we'll have a cane for about 12 hours or so.

That seems correct. It is still NHC's responsibility right now, and I would expect by 8:30 to be a special advisory declaring it a hurricane (with updated intensity estimates).

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012359
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 26 20071101
234730 2722N 07528W 8425 01462 9988 +137 +137 124053 054 053 023 00
234800 2723N 07526W 8420 01471 9990 +137 +137 121057 060 053 023 00
234830 2724N 07525W 8423 01466 9994 +135 +135 112059 059 052 021 00
234900 2724N 07525W 8423 01466 9995 +135 +135 112060 060 049 016 00
234930 2726N 07523W 8417 01476 9995 +138 +138 118062 062 051 014 00
235000 2727N 07522W 8424 01470 9995 +142 +142 122062 063 049 011 00
235030 2728N 07520W 8427 01470 9988 +157 +157 125063 064 048 008 00
235100 2729N 07519W 8421 01478 9989 +156 +156 123063 064 047 007 00
235130 2730N 07518W 8425 01474 9992 +153 +153 117058 061 046 007 00
235200 2731N 07517W 8422 01480 9997 +149 +149 119059 060 047 008 00
235230 2732N 07515W 8420 01485 9998 +147 +147 123062 065 048 008 00
235300 2733N 07514W 8421 01486 0001 +149 +149 121061 063 048 009 00
235330 2734N 07513W 8422 01482 0004 +146 +146 122061 065 049 008 00
235400 2735N 07512W 8422 01484 0006 +145 +145 122061 064 047 009 00
235430 2736N 07511W 8422 01485 0005 +148 +148 125061 062 047 009 00
235500 2737N 07509W 8423 01486 0006 +148 +148 126060 061 048 010 00
235530 2737N 07508W 8420 01490 0014 +140 +140 127057 059 048 011 00
235600 2738N 07507W 8422 01490 0017 +140 +140 128054 055 048 012 03
235630 2740N 07506W 8418 01497 0023 +137 +137 122052 053 999 999 03
235700 2742N 07507W 8418 01499 0021 +137 +137 126054 055 045 013 03
$$
;

Large field of 50 kt+ winds.

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 012358
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/23:22:40Z
B. 26 deg 26 min N
076 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1287 m
D. 34 kt
E. 200 deg 31 nm
F. 360 deg 035 kt
G. 223 deg 155 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 19 C/ 1525 m
J. 25 C/ 1520 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF306 1216A NOEL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 35 KT SW QUAD 22:32:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 81 KT NE QUAD 23:41:30 Z
;

VDM 81 kt / 981mb. Should be Hurricane Noel shortly.

[Thunder44]

283
URNT12 KNHC 012358
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/23:22:40Z
B. 26 deg 26 min N
076 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1287 m
D. 34 kt
E. 200 deg 31 nm
F. 360 deg 035 kt
G. 223 deg 155 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 19 C/ 1525 m
J. 25 C/ 1520 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF306 1216A NOEL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 35 KT SW QUAD 22:32:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 81 KT NE QUAD 23:41:30 Z
;

[RL3AO]

196
WTNT31 KNHC 020001
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS HURRICANE NOEL AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE
NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NOEL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...29 KM/HR...AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOEL IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOEL SHOULD
THEN STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...AND
THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA