Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Typhoon_Willie]

U 2 Frank have a good weekend!

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 011600
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/1520Z
B. 24 deg 33 min N
077 deg 31 min W
C. 850 mb 1376 M
D. 53 KT
E. 017 deg 47 NM
F. 110 deg 59 KT
G. 033 deg 103 NM
H. 994 MB
I. 13C/ 1523 M
J. 20 C/ 1524 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 0.02 / 15 NM
P. AF302 1116A NOEL OB 11
MAX FL LVL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 1439Z
VERY POORLY DEFINED SFC CENTER

[Evil Jeremy]

A few questions:

When is the ridge suppoused to build back in?
What effects is the cold front now coming off the USA coastline going to have on Noel?
Is the shortwave that weakened the ridge trying to fuse with Noel?

[btangy]

New England and Canada really must monitor this. Even if it goes ET, it would still produce near hurricane force winds whereever it makes landfall

12Z GFS and NAM are bringing Noel even closer to New England giving the coastal plain a burst of wind and rain. Cape Cod and Nantucket appear to be the most at risk for receiving rough conditions. This looks like an early season nor'easter, but with possibly very little warning time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif

The 00Z mutli-model consensus has also shifted closer to the coast. The reason has to do with the evolution of the 500mb pattern which hinges on the phase of the southern stream trough and northern stream trough. For example, the NAM shows the southern stream trough amplifying and undercutting Noel, while keeping more of the northern stream trough energy back over the Midwest.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048m.gif

This creates a negative tilt steering Noel or its ET remnants by this time more northwards instead of northeastward. It'll be interesting to see if the trend in the models continue to bring Noel closer to NE or whether future model runs back off from this and go back to a more offshore solution. The Canadian maritimes obviously will bear the full brunt of Noel either way.

[CrazyC83]

66 kt FL winds - supports (with 90%) 60 kt, (with 80 or 85%) 55 kt

[CrazyC83]

No flight data available at this point, but vortexes are still coming in...found 66 kt FL winds (supports at least 55 kt)

[CrazyC83]

01/1145 UTC 23.9N 78.6W T3.5/3.5 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

A shower just moved through my area with some gusts of winds. Video coming up!

[HURAKAN]

[Downdraft]

Hat's off to the NHC for once again proving why they do what they do despite the aggravation of a media that wants to hype it and some posters in here that refuse to agree. Kudo's also to all the pro-mets who despite being argued with stood by their guns and also proved that no matter how much you wish for a storm you can't make it come just because you want it to.

[Sal Collaziano]

Thanks for the video. I'll put up what just flew through West Palm Beach a few minutes ago, in a few minutes.

[btangy]

To follow up on my earlier post, the 00Z GEFS spread is quite large with the southern stream trough, so there's quite a bit of uncertainty still with regards how far W Noel tracks.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 0_vt48.gif

[StormTracker]

Looks like it"s clearing the Bahamas fairly quickly!

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wonder if NHC will "keep" this rather than hand it off to the Ocean Prediction people, due to suggestion from GFS, Canadian and WRF that this will be a significant weather maker for extreme Southeast New England. Models suggest near or possibly in excess of hurricane force winds.

I realize it will be starting to merge with a front, over cool water, and all that stuff. But due people take high wind warnings as seriously as a tropical storm or hurricane warning?


BTW, the September 21, 1938 hurricane that killed 600 people in NY, RI, CT and MA- it was supposedly moving near 60 mph when it hit New York. I'd bet that was no longer a purely tropical system at the speed, even if it did have Cat 3 winds.

[StormTracker]

I guess the Bahamian radar or site is overloading. The image isn't showing on my last post. ST

[drezee]

Noel backwards is Leon.

[HURAKAN]

...Noel passing over Nassau as it accelerates north-northeastward...


at 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning along the
Southeast Florida coast has been discontinued.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and
northwestern Bahamas.


The government of Bermuda has issued a Gale Warning for Bermuda.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was
located near latitude 25.0 north...longitude 77.4 west or near
Nassau in the Bahamas.


Noel is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph...22
km/hr...and a further increase in forward speed is expected over
the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible later today.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.


The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 993 mb...29.32 inches.


Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.


Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
inches in the Bahamas...with possible maximum amounts of 18 inches.
Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected
over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola...where these rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Additional rainfall
amounts of less than 1 inch are expected in southeastern Florida.


Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...25.0 N...77.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...65
mph. Minimum central pressure...993 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Franklin

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 011758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
200 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL PASSING OVER NASSAU AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR NEAR
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[CrazyC83]

Maybe we will get a hurricane before he becomes extratropical?