Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Thunder44]

WTNT21 KNHC 010832
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0900 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 78.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 115NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 0SW 115NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 78.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 78.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N 73.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.8N 70.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 180NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 60SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 43.5N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...240NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...360NE 420SE 270SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 57.5N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[TampaFl]

5:00am Position - Map Courtesy Boat USA:

[SouthFLTropics]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL CONTINUING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
NOEL THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...23.7 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 010900
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/08:04:10Z
B. 23 deg 27 min N
078 deg 39 min W
C. 850 mb 1368 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg NA nm
F. 151 deg 029 kt
G. 048 deg 057 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 18 C/ 1542 m
J. 21 C/ 1504 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 1016A NOEL1 OB 16
MAX FL WIND 29 KT NE QUAD 07:45 Z

[Thunder44]

Latest satellite image and recon fix show the LLC may become removed from main area convection again to the west. This may mean the LLC will again track closer to SE FL coast, bringing TS force winds there. There are TS force winds at the surface there despite the lack of convection. The windfield continues to expand.

[Bgator]

You mean west...

[Windtalker2]

Well I guess those of "US" that stuck to our guns about a "Tropical Storm Warning" for SE Florida has turned over the "Crow Meal" to those that said it wouldn't.

[jlauderdal]

As of 5am, TS Warning now for SE FLorida. The great debate is over.

yep and the kids have to go to school and everybody still has to go to work so there are still alot of unhappy people

[fci]

Well I guess those of "US" that stuck to our guns about a "Tropical Storm Warning" for SE Florida has turned over the "Crow Meal" to those that said it wouldn't.

This TS Warning is so unimportant that it is funny.
It is for the "possibility" that there is a slight deviation in the track.
There is hardly any "weather" associated with the western side of Noel.

Here in Palm Beach County we are just north of the TS Warning area and I can tell you that there is hardly any wind at all now that we are solely affected by Noel and no longer by the gradient.

Many can "celebrate" that they are "right" but what exactly are they "right" about???

[Thunder44]

As of 5am, TS Warning now for SE FLorida. The great debate is over.

yep and the kids have to go to school and everybody still has to go to work so there are still alot of unhappy people

Well it's not like there is hurricane out there. This storm is acting more like slow moving Nor'easter. Rain and winds pounding the coastline for several days, causing major beach erosion and coastal flooding. If you're just inland it's no big deal.

[HURAKAN]

Next:

1. TROPICAL STORM NOEL
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 01/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 1116A NOEL
C. 01/0800Z
D. 25.1N 78.2W
E. 01/1100 TO 01/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[HURAKAN]

Noel must be thinking that he's doing so great that people are speechless!!!

Anyone here!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

yea. Just waiting on the 8AM.

[HURAKAN]

[tgenius]

Its amazing how weather works.. with Noel that close to the coast and not able to come this way... its a pretty amazing thing.

[Evil Jeremy]

Its amazing how weather works.. with Noel that close to the coast and not able to come this way... its a pretty amazing thing.

Amazing, but generally not good. We needed the rain badly here in South Florida, and this storm is not going to deliver it to us.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

[cycloneye]

TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
NOEL THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...23.8 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

341
WTNT31 KNHC 011158
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
NOEL THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...23.8 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Evil Jeremy]

Storm moving northward, and convection pulling away from Florida. This is it. The lon gawaited turn is begining.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Cone is weird: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents