Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Bgator]

Why are people getting so nasty around here? stop yelling at each other. people are entitled to there opinions.

[Patrick99]

If this potent trough is coming, and racing to the east, why would Noel move so far NNE into Nova Scotia? Seems to me it would be swiftly kicked E to ENE, if anything. Where's all the predicted north movement coming from?

['CaneFreak]

no one is yelling. If people would start listening to other people sharing their knowledge and learn from there mistakes, and stop making the same mistakes OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER again, then no one would be mad or even the slightest bit frustrated.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Live map updated every 10 minutes:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archi ... n=10&map=1

Latest set of live data:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/

Or the best way if you want to view past data for this mission:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archi ... mission=10

[MiamiensisWx]

Why are people getting so nasty around here? stop yelling at each other. people are entitled to there opinions.

DELETED

[boca]

If this potent trough is coming, and racing to the east, why would Noel move so far NNE into Nova Scotia? Seems to me it would be swiftly kicked E to ENE, if anything. Where's all the predicted north movement coming from?

It couldn't of said it better myself. Look at the GOM water vapor and the oranges are advacing east and digging south so maybe thsi is a kick in the a** Noel needs to move NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Windtalker2]

no one is yelling. If people would start listening to other people sharing their knowledge and learn from there mistakes, and stop making the same mistakes OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER again, then no one would be mad or even the slightest bit frustrated.

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFXE.html
True...steady in Ft Lauderdale or "maybe" on a downward turn" .01

I don't think caps are needed.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010227
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 20 20071101
021530 2243N 07814W 8422 01481 9975 +187 +176 230032 033 029 009 00
021600 2242N 07812W 8420 01483 9974 +192 +160 225034 034 029 009 00
021630 2241N 07811W 8426 01477 9974 +193 +160 222036 037 029 009 00
021700 2240N 07809W 8421 01486 9978 +189 +165 224037 037 030 009 00
021730 2239N 07808W 8419 01487 9980 +185 +172 221037 038 028 009 00
021800 2238N 07807W 8418 01489 9982 +185 +175 221039 039 026 010 00
021830 2237N 07805W 8422 01487 9983 +183 +183 218039 039 025 009 00
021900 2236N 07804W 8419 01489 9986 +180 +180 218038 039 025 009 00
021930 2235N 07802W 8423 01487 9988 +177 +177 217038 040 026 010 00
022000 2234N 07801W 8415 01494 9995 +167 +167 213040 043 030 013 00
022030 2233N 07759W 8423 01486 0000 +158 +158 209042 043 032 012 00
022100 2232N 07758W 8416 01493 0000 +158 +158 211042 043 033 013 00
022130 2231N 07757W 8424 01487 9994 +170 +170 208042 043 032 012 00
022200 2230N 07755W 8419 01495 9996 +170 +170 208042 043 030 010 00
022230 2229N 07754W 8419 01497 9998 +174 +174 207040 040 029 010 00
022300 2228N 07753W 8420 01497 9997 +175 +175 207039 040 028 010 00
022330 2228N 07753W 8420 01497 0000 +175 +175 209038 038 028 010 00
022400 2226N 07750W 8419 01501 0002 +176 +174 211039 039 026 010 00
022430 2225N 07748W 8422 01500 0004 +173 +173 210039 039 026 010 00
022500 2224N 07747W 8420 01504 0004 +175 +171 212039 039 026 010 00
$$
;

43 kt FL, 33 kt SFMR

[Jevo]

lol none of you have a clue with this storm right now... and its great to watch each side argue their position....

:grabs more popcorn:

[Blown Away]

Based on SFC obs...looks like the LLC is moving under VERY deep convection

In moving only 3-4mph I think the convection is moving over the LLC not the other way around. The convection is expending to the west.

THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPANDING WESTWARD. IT IS A MIRAGE OF THE SATELLITE image. Trust me. The convection does not move over the LLC. That is also a myth. It is the other way around. The LLC positions itself under the convection and it is not doing that tonight yet. Also, pressures from the FL coast are all now steady or even slightly rising now which shoots down the windfield expanding west theorists out there. WIND IS A FUNCTION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT, not ANYTHING ELSE. Look it up in the meteorological dictionary. If it werent for pressure change, there would be no wind PERIOD.

Whatever, either the LLC is slowly drifting W or the convection is building W. Either way it is doing it very slowly, but the high clouds are moving a little W on the latest IR.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[destruction92]

no one is yelling. If people would start listening to other people sharing their knowledge and learn from there mistakes, and stop making the same mistakes OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER again, then no one would be mad or even the slightest bit frustrated.

Seriously, I have not seen you on much on this thread about Noel...all of a sudden, you are everywhere.

I do think you could tone down your "smarter than thou" attitude...you gotta understand that this is not the tropical analysis forum but the "talkin' tropics" forum.

If you are frustrated by the ignorance here, then you are free to ignore them, don't read them, or just leave the talkin' tropics forum and go to the pro-mets section.

Now, back to Noel....I don't know why you are getting so ramped up, unless you have property in the Bahamas...otherwise the Carolinas are safe as ever. Speaking of Carolinas, I am sure you know your stuff since you have been through more tropical systems than any Floridian...right?

Correction: After reading historical records, climatological norms, and knowing that Florida has like 4 times as much coastline as North Carolina, I can confidently affirm that Florida is the hurricane capital of the mainland U.S. and has more hurricanes than any other state, including North Carolina.

[Bgator]

Can someone let me know what this false return on the radar is( i know its not directly related to Noel, but i dont know where to put it):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

['CaneFreak]

If this potent trough is coming, and racing to the east, why would Noel move so far NNE into Nova Scotia? Seems to me it would be swiftly kicked E to ENE, if anything. Where's all the predicted north movement coming from?

Good intelligent question sir. The problem lies in the orientation of this trough. You would think, "Ok Todd, this thing has to go either E or ENE." Right? NO NO NO. What happens in the atmosphere is very complex for many people here to understand. What really happens? A linear collision happens. We have a uniform spherical body (tropical cyclone) that is literally running into a brick wall in the upper atmosphere just like a tennis ball runs into the wall. Well, upon impact that tennis ball undergoes an energy change from a kinetic phase to a potential phase. Well, as you might have guessed, it is a potential phase now because there is no overall forward momentum of the system. But, come tomorrow, that will all change and rather quickly. Once this system finally collides with the brick wall (trough) it will finally begin to accelerate N ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH and then eventually ENE once it gets near the Bermuda area. Its all in the physics of the atmosphere. You have to visualize it. Look at this map and you will see it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Notice you use this map for a TC's MSLP of 999 to 990 mb. Ours is 996mb. PERFECT MAP TO USE. Look at it and you will see what I was talking about. Its all about the visual aides.

[cycloneye]

Ok,lets stop the bickering here between members,We can have friendly disagreements about NOEL,but it has not have to come to the bickering.

[gatorcane]

wow what debate here....let me summarize what I think

-Noel is actually drifting WNW to NW over the past couple of hours
-Noel is clearly getting stronger and could be come a hurricane
-Noel *should* turn to the NNE soon because the trough is now digging into the Central GOM.

You can see the trough here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Since 'there' and 'their' are both words, unless someone has really upgraded spell check to check grammar and context, it won't do much good.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010237
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 21 20071101
022530 2223N 07746W 8420 01505 0006 +176 +171 212038 039 027 010 00
022600 2223N 07744W 8422 01505 0007 +177 +169 211037 037 028 009 00
022630 2222N 07743W 8419 01508 0008 +177 +169 209037 038 025 010 00
022700 2222N 07743W 8419 01508 0008 +179 +168 210038 038 025 010 00
022730 2220N 07740W 8420 01507 0009 +178 +169 207038 038 027 009 00
022800 2219N 07739W 8422 01505 0010 +177 +172 205037 038 027 010 00
022830 2218N 07737W 8420 01509 0015 +172 +166 207038 039 027 009 00
022900 2218N 07737W 8420 01509 0012 +177 +170 208039 040 027 009 00
022930 2216N 07734W 8422 01510 0013 +178 +158 209040 041 026 010 00
023000 2215N 07733W 8422 01510 0014 +174 +174 208039 042 026 010 00
023030 2214N 07732W 8418 01515 0015 +172 +172 210039 040 028 009 00
023100 2213N 07730W 8419 01514 0017 +170 +170 209040 041 028 009 00
023130 2213N 07730W 8419 01514 0018 +170 +170 208039 040 028 010 00
023200 2211N 07728W 8423 01511 0019 +170 +170 207038 039 029 009 00
023230 2210N 07726W 8422 01514 0020 +170 +170 206038 039 028 009 00
023300 2209N 07725W 8419 01516 0020 +173 +173 205038 038 028 010 00
023330 2209N 07723W 8421 01515 0021 +172 +172 204037 037 030 009 00
023400 2208N 07722W 8420 01516 0021 +175 +172 205037 038 029 009 00
023430 2207N 07721W 8419 01518 0024 +172 +172 206039 039 028 009 00
023500 2206N 07719W 8420 01517 0023 +172 +172 206039 039 028 010 00
$$
;

Working the SE quad.

[ericinmia]

Can someone let me know what this false return on the radar is( i know its not directly related to Noel, but i dont know where to put it):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

Yeah, I was looking at my GRLEVEL3 and had to change stations to the keys... and the false return was still there.

I couldn't figure out what in the world it is, but it's moving toward the storm... lol

Aliens????? lol Or maybe a fleet of planes with dynogel... to help stop Noel? hahahhaha

[wxman57]

Can someone let me know what this false return on the radar is( i know its not directly related to Noel, but i dont know where to put it):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

I assume you mean the band of "rain" moving south away from the Keys? I don't know what that is. Only a few low clouds in the area, no rain. Can't see any feature on satellite or in the surface obs. Ghosts?

[Patrick99]

If this potent trough is coming, and racing to the east, why would Noel move so far NNE into Nova Scotia? Seems to me it would be swiftly kicked E to ENE, if anything. Where's all the predicted north movement coming from?

It couldn't of said it better myself. Look at the GOM water vapor and the oranges are advacing east and digging south so maybe thsi is a kick in the a** Noel needs to move NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Yeah, I just don't see how it's possible for this to move so pointedly NNE into Greenland, for crying out loud. Possible Noel still has some surprises left? Wouldn't be unprecedented, for late October/early November.