Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[boca]

It does seem to be getting a little better organized ("Hello, Sebring?")...

We'll see what happens (I'm getting too old for this)...

Frank

Frank your just young at heart.My wife tells me to act my age, I say no so why should you.

[Frank2]

LOL - others tell me the same thing...

[Evil Jeremy]

is the mission over?

[cpdaman]

ummm this has my attention

perhaps it could scoot westward enough for cuba to keep it from tightening up

I was wondering IF this is not deflected by a front how fast it is forecast to move and wether conditions appear favorable for development

this storm appears to have some sneak up potential, however the medium size of the circulation would prohibit IMO humerto like rapid intensification

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
~~~~~~
This thing is booking to the WNW

[Tropics Guy]

Seems to be tracking more WNW now., may even parallel off the NE coast of Cuba for awhile before turning more towards the North.

TG

[boca]

Wow it sure is. As for as recurature they didn't account for this moving at 12mph but at 6mph, that only will affect the outcome of effects for S FL.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 291733
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM NOEL      16L

INITIAL TIME  12Z OCT 29

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            18.5             72.5           340./ 7.0
   6            19.9             73.1           338./15.5
  12            21.3             73.8           334./14.4
  18            22.1             74.8           311./12.6
  24            22.7             75.7           302./10.8
  30            23.5             75.8           354./ 7.6
  36            24.4             76.2           338./ 9.3
  42            24.6             76.2           346./ 2.5
  48            25.4             75.8            29./ 8.7
  54            26.1             75.5            21./ 7.9
  60            26.8             74.9            42./ 8.1
  66            27.8             74.2            33./12.4
  72            29.1             73.5            31./14.5
  78            30.4             72.8            30./13.8
  84            31.5             71.3            53./17.0
  90            32.8             69.3            57./21.1
  96            34.6             66.6            57./28.9
 102            36.8             63.7            52./32.7
 108            39.8             60.9            43./36.3
 114            42.7             59.3            29./31.3
 120            44.5             58.2            31./20.4
 126            45.9             56.5            51./17.7


12z GFDL.Bad initial plot.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET
Hello Andros Island.


But the model was initialized about 150 miles to the SE of the real position.

Yes,bad initial plot.

[Evil Jeremy]

While the latest GFDL is much more westward now, it initialized poorly. But that is to be expected with weakened systems.

[CrazyC83]

No, I just stepped out and no one took over...

URNT15 KNHC 291735
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 14 20071029
172300 1946N 07204W 9873 00164 0060 +245 +225 097015 015 022 002 00
172330 1946N 07205W 9874 00162 0059 +246 +224 103017 017 022 002 00
172400 1947N 07207W 9877 00160 0058 +250 +224 109016 017 025 000 00
172430 1947N 07209W 9875 00161 0057 +252 +223 110016 016 020 001 00
172500 1948N 07211W 9877 00159 0057 +247 +230 112015 016 021 002 00
172530 1948N 07212W 9876 00160 0057 +253 +225 117013 014 019 002 00
172600 1949N 07214W 9877 00158 0057 +250 +228 107012 013 018 002 00
172630 1950N 07215W 9876 00159 0057 +251 +228 109012 012 019 001 00
172700 1950N 07217W 9873 00161 0056 +254 +224 113015 015 018 001 00
172730 1951N 07219W 9877 00157 0056 +253 +224 112015 016 020 001 00
172800 1952N 07220W 9877 00159 0057 +251 +227 109016 016 021 002 00
172830 1953N 07222W 9878 00157 0058 +250 +226 114017 018 024 003 00
172900 1954N 07223W 9874 00160 0057 +251 +224 118018 019 024 005 03
172930 1955N 07225W 9878 00156 0056 +250 +226 119020 021 026 003 00
173000 1956N 07226W 9875 00160 0056 +250 +228 117021 021 027 003 00
173030 1957N 07228W 9876 00157 0055 +250 +229 111020 021 025 003 00
173100 1958N 07229W 9875 00158 0055 +250 +229 109021 022 025 001 00
173130 1959N 07231W 9877 00156 0054 +250 +228 110021 021 026 001 03
173200 1959N 07232W 9872 00160 0054 +250 +229 104019 019 021 003 03
173230 1959N 07234W 9878 00154 0053 +250 +228 100018 019 024 003 00
$$
;

NT15 KNHC 291745
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 15 20071029
173300 1959N 07236W 9876 00155 0052 +250 +226 101019 020 025 002 00
173330 1959N 07238W 9877 00153 0052 +250 +224 101018 019 025 002 00
173400 1958N 07240W 9876 00154 0051 +254 +222 105019 019 026 001 00
173430 1958N 07241W 9876 00153 0050 +254 +220 102019 019 025 002 00
173500 1958N 07243W 9877 00153 0050 +256 +216 103018 018 027 001 00
173530 1959N 07245W 9874 00154 0049 +255 +219 103018 018 025 001 00
173600 1959N 07247W 9875 00154 0049 +254 +222 103019 020 027 000 00
173630 1959N 07249W 9879 00150 0050 +255 +216 106016 017 025 003 00
173700 1959N 07250W 9873 00155 0049 +256 +216 105016 017 026 004 00
173730 1959N 07252W 9877 00152 0050 +254 +221 104016 016 026 004 00
173800 2000N 07254W 9868 00162 0052 +240 +231 099008 013 026 006 00
173830 2000N 07256W 9873 00155 0052 +227 +227 087006 008 024 005 00
173900 2000N 07257W 9877 00152 0051 +234 +225 103010 011 020 005 00
173930 2000N 07259W 9876 00154 0052 +236 +218 114013 014 023 002 00
174000 2001N 07301W 9870 00159 0051 +239 +214 124017 018 023 003 03
174030 2001N 07302W 9877 00152 0051 +238 +217 138021 021 026 003 00
174100 2002N 07304W 9874 00154 0051 +237 +221 140020 021 029 000 00
174130 2003N 07306W 9875 00154 0051 +237 +225 144018 019 027 000 00
174200 2004N 07307W 9877 00151 0050 +240 +222 146023 025 030 004 00
174230 2005N 07309W 9876 00151 0048 +243 +219 142025 025 030 003 00
$$
;

URNT15 KNHC 291755
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 16 20071029
174300 2005N 07310W 9879 00148 0048 +244 +219 140022 023 028 003 00
174330 2006N 07312W 9873 00152 0047 +244 +223 134023 024 030 002 00
174400 2007N 07314W 9877 00148 0045 +246 +220 133024 025 031 003 00
174430 2008N 07315W 9878 00145 0043 +251 +218 134026 027 034 002 00
174500 2009N 07317W 9866 00160 0047 +248 +228 162018 025 032 004 00
174530 2009N 07319W 9865 00157 0044 +245 +230 195017 018 027 001 00
174600 2010N 07320W 9832 00187 0045 +242 +227 193018 019 026 001 00
174630 2011N 07322W 9837 00182 0044 +243 +224 190020 021 027 000 00
174700 2012N 07323W 9838 00181 0044 +241 +226 189020 020 026 002 00
174730 2012N 07324W 9838 00180 0043 +240 +225 191021 022 029 000 00
174800 2013N 07326W 9836 00182 0043 +240 +222 186022 024 030 001 00
174830 2014N 07328W 9834 00184 0043 +239 +221 178022 023 027 002 00
174900 2015N 07329W 9834 00182 0042 +237 +227 178021 022 028 002 03
174930 2016N 07330W 9833 00182 0041 +235 +228 180024 025 033 004 03
175000 2018N 07330W 9837 00177 0041 +238 +221 174025 026 032 004 00
175030 2019N 07330W 9836 00180 0040 +238 +221 171024 026 033 003 00
175100 2021N 07330W 9834 00181 0040 +236 +224 169026 027 032 003 00
175130 2023N 07330W 9841 00173 0039 +238 +219 170029 031 035 002 00
175200 2025N 07330W 9834 00179 0038 +240 +213 174033 034 035 003 00
175230 2027N 07330W 9837 00178 0039 +239 +220 166030 032 034 003 00
$$
;

[tracyswfla]

Wow it sure is. As for as recurature they didn't account for this moving at 12mph but at 6mph, that only will affect the outcome of effects for S FL.

Oh come on! Make up your minds! Seriously, here in Ft. Myers the wind is coming from the South.

[wxman57]

I'm estimating a WNW movement of only 6-7 kts. Here's a new surface analysis showing the position of the front across the FL peninsula and a likely path of Noel. Note the winds behind the front are already 30-35 mph. A little help from Noel will push the gradient up enough to produce 35-45 mph winds all along the FL coast the next 2-3 days. Noel doesn't look too tropical this afternoon, and it really doesn't have to even have a well-defined center to produce such winds. But as Noel approaches, the front should keep moving southward and the winds across east FL will increase in the cool air.

[tgenius]

so boca your trying to tell me my pirate costume is going to get wet on Wednesday?!

[boca]

Wow it sure is. As for as recurature they didn't account for this moving at 12mph but at 6mph, that only will affect the outcome of effects for S FL.

Oh come on! Make up your minds! Seriously, here in Ft. Myers the wind is coming from the South.

Weather can be very stressful at times especially fickle systems like this one.

[Evil Jeremy]

wxman, does Noel pose a direct threat to SFL now?

[tracyswfla]

Noel remains disorganized...centered near the eastern tip of
Cuba...
...Heavy rains now spreading across the southeastern Bahamas...
At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti south
of gonaives has been discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for the Northern Peninsula of Haiti from the
Haiti-Dominican Republic border to gonaives.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the central and
southeastern Bahamas...including the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of
southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Guantanamo and Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire coast of
Haiti.

A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the
northwestern Bahamas later this afternoon or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was
located near latitude 20.5 north...longitude 73.8 west or about 30
miles...50 km...northeast of the eastern tip of Cuba. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating Noel.
Noel is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph...25 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track...the center of Noel will be moving near or
over the southeastern and central Bahamas or northeastern Cuba
later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.

Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20
inches over Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum totals of
30 inches. Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible
maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible over southeastern Cuba.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with maximum totals of 15
inches...are possible across the central and southeastern Bahamas.
Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible
over Puerto Rico through Tuesday morning. These rains...
particularly in Hispaniola...are expected to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...20.5 N...73.8 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Knabb/Mainelli

[wxman57]

Wow it sure is. As for as recurature they didn't account for this moving at 12mph but at 6mph, that only will affect the outcome of effects for S FL.

Oh come on! Make up your minds! Seriously, here in Ft. Myers the wind is coming from the South.

No south wind anywhere in Florida. Winds in Ft. Myers are ENE at 14 kts gusting 21 kts:

KFMY| |291753|86.0F|64.9F|49.6%|070|014|021|30.03|8|CLR|
KFMY| |291653|82.9F|69.1F|63.1%|080|012|000|30.06|999|SCT|
KFMY| |291553|81.0F|69.1F|67.3%|070|011|000|30.08|999|CLR|

[Evil Jeremy]

NW at 15 MPH with 45 MPH winds at 2PM.

[boca]

so boca your trying to tell me my pirate costume is going to get wet on Wednesday?!

I hope it doesn't get too wet because I'll be out there also with my kids.