Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[drezee]

IMO, it need to decouple for a day or two and move almost due W in order to strike FL...

From recon obs it looks to be decoupling...

[Derek Ortt]

it looks to be making landfall more than decoupling

[Meso]

Don't know if it's been posted 00z CMC : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp14.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp22.png

00z GFDL topping it out at just below a cat 4
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp10.png

00z HWRF at a cat 2

[Chacor]

WTNT31 KNHC 290858
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...CENTER OF NOEL ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST OF HAITI AS LIFE-
THREATENING RAINS CONTINUE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
THE BAHAMAS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. THIS WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 245 MILES
...390 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF
HAITI DURING THE DAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NOEL INTERACTS
WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER ATLANTIC WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...
PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

——————————————————————————————
WTNT41 KNHC 290858
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT 850 MB...BUT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER LIKELY REFORMED AGAIN TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF HAITI. THE DROPSONDE
DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS NOW LIKELY AROUND 1002 MB. THERE WAS AN SFMR
REPORT OF 42 KT...ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND ON THIS
BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF NOEL
IS INFLUENCING THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN
FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NOEL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ECMWF AND UKMET...WHICH RUN A WEAK LOW ALONG OR SOUTH OF
CUBA...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AS A RESULT OF THE
NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL...WHICH IS NOT WELL-DEFINED
TO BEGIN WITH...WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ASSUMING IT SURVIVES THE PASSAGE...THE
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD DIMINISH AND ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE GFDL AND
HWRF. BY DAYS 4-5...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH
A FRONTAL ZONE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.0N 72.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 19.4N 72.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 21.1N 74.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 22.2N 75.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 76.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 74.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

This is what I call "adjustments!!"

1st advisory:


Latest advisory:


WE STILL HAVE SO MUCH TO LEARN.

[Thunder44]

Looks like the GFDL was right for once this season.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 291159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI...AND IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. THIS WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR NEAR
PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF NOEL IS BECOMING
DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF HAITI DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AS NOEL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
HISPANIOLA...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER EMERGES
OVER ATLANTIC WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS ARE NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...
PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[cycloneye]

From the 8 AM Intermidiete Advisory:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AS NOEL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
HISPANIOLA...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER ATLANTIC WATERS.

That means,they are not too confident that it will survive the treck thru Hispanola.

[Blown Away]

The GFS, Ukmet, and Nogaps all seem to NOEL doing a loop in the Bahamas. GFDL has been very consistent w/ its track.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Good morning. I just wanted to point out on the first visable sat views of the morning, It looks as if the center has again followed the convection to the north and is or has reformed to the north and is about to emerge off the coast of Haiti or already has done so. this system has just been a series of center relocations. if you give it a quick peek you will see what I am talking about.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[boca]

Looks like Noel is moving due north on sat.So much for drought busting rains in the Lake O area. Just wind effects here in Florida from the high and Noel.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Does anyone else see what im seeing? if this is the case its about 18 to 20 hours ahead of the forecast. I would say that may call for some pretty quick thinking on the part of the nhc. this isnt over yet, now this gets interesting

[HURAKAN]

I'm waiting for an expert to answer your question but I'm seeing what you are seeing. It seems the center is now on the northern coast.

[boca]

How does it take a 100 mile or so jump like that and does that change the track of Noel?

[hial2]

Does anyone else see what im seeing? if this is the case its about 18 to 20 hours ahead of the forecast. I would say that may call for some pretty quick thinking on the part of the nhc. this isnt over yet, now this gets interesting

As a lurker/ignorant for the most part,can you elaborate? Thanks

[Thunder44]

I don't see much evidence on visible imagery or surface obs of LLC where the NHC placed it at 8am Advisory (near Port Au Prince). It think it will most likely reform closer to the MLC again today which has moved into the Atlantic, north of Haiti already.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Yeah me too, I almost want to say its over water now in the atlantic. I see no evidence of an llc over land( because i originally thought it was just the mlc spinning away) but im not so sure now that the sun has come up.

[HURAKAN]

The argument is clearly visible in this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[boca]

Does this change the track of Noel if this did occur or does it just scout him out faster.