Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[MiamiensisWx]

This is NOT an official forecast. It is an assessment of the possibilities and current UA pattern.

Personally, I agree with some professional meteorologists... if Noel remains nearly stationary, a path further east becomes a more probable solution in line with the older model guidance and GFDL.

Currently, the upper low remains in the area, although it is slowly progressing westward. The stationary front over FL may evolve into a broad, weak trough, while the exiting s/w opens a 500 mb weakness in the western Atlantic until the next progged s/w (second North American) system arrives on the scene. At the time, Noel would be situated invof the Greater Antilles until this second system influences the ultimate turn out to sea over the Atlantic waters/Bahamas. If Noel remains in the northern Caribbean for a longer period, a path further east over western Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas is more probable, in my opinion. If Noel begins to move earlier than progged, a track toward central Cuba and the western Bahamas would be a valid possibility as suggested by some model guidance.

Timing and the movement of Noel will be important.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

[HURAKAN]

"Eye" no more!!!

[CrazyC83]

28/2345 UTC 17.1N 72.2W T3.0/3.0 16L -- Atlantic Ocean

[CrazyC83]

New convection firing on the SW side in a hurry...

[tolakram]

The blob is moving SE. I have no idea what this means. I looked at the shortwave and I just can't tell which way the center is moving.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 01:15 UTC:

[Vortex]

00z GLOBAL Runs to begin shortly

General start times..

NAM 10PM
GFS 1130PM
NOGAPS 12AM
CMC 1215 AM
UKMET 1 AM
EURO 330 AM

[cpdaman]

i hope haiti finds a way to dodge catastrophic flooding

closer to home (my home) there could be some significant beach erosion along the palm beach county coastal waters this week from the combination of the high and the cyclone

there is a high surf advisory

surf gets highest in this area from a large NE fetch, because the bahamas do not block swells from the NE direction (like they do in S, SE or E winds from hurricane's) along the gold coast, usually creating higher seas

[chadtm80]

[CrazyC83]

I believe the next takeoff is at 11:00 pm (0300Z)...

[Cyclenall]

"Eye" no more!!!

There was never an eye to begin with. I don't know why a warm spot in a random area of the convection (not even near the center) sounds of the eye alarm bells.

[HURAKAN]

"Eye" no more!!!

There was never an eye to begin with. I don't know why a warm spot in a random area of the convection (not even near the center) sounds of the eye alarm bells.

And that's why I put it in quotation marks!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

Um, is it me, or are the colors wrong on that graphic?

[MiamiensisWx]

My hunch was correct. Models have predictably shifted further east with a better handle on the strong shear and slower motion. I think the threat to the United States has sharply diminished.

[Cyclenall]

"Eye" no more!!!

There was never an eye to begin with. I don't know why a warm spot in a random area of the convection (not even near the center) sounds of the eye alarm bells.

And that's why I put it in quotation marks!!!

I know you didn't believe that .

Here is some more Noel:

[hial2]

The models are all over the place,as it's typical this time of year..In my opinion, wherever Noel (or its remnants) finally end up is up in the air..
I'm willing to bet that there will be changes one way or another by the morning runs...I've seen canes go west to east in the carribbean,I've seen Gordon circle Cuba from from the south east and cross over the keys..This time of year steering winds are unpredictable..All this,of course,strictly my opinion

[cycloneye]

KNHC 290237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...NOEL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT...CONTINUES TO SPREAD VERY HEAVY
RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI EARLY ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N...72.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

WTNT41 KNHC 290242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

NOEL HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN
CLUSTERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS LIKELY
GENERATING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT BASED ON THE
EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50
KT. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE NOEL
AROUND 0600 UTC TO GIVE A NEW ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIX THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BASED
SOLELY ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. UTILIZING POSITION
ESTIMATES FROM EARLIER SSM/I AND AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 330/4. NOEL IS APPARENTLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE NOEL TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD IN A FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
BASICALLY CLUSTERING INTO TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE SINCE IT SPLITS NOEL INTO TWO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND DEVELOPS A THIRD CENTER
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFDN...HWRF...U.K.
MET AND NOGAPS TRACKS. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN IMPARTING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING
ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH IS INHIBITING AN INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
LOW WILL SOON FILL...CREATING AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS HOW MUCH THE
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA
WILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. BY DAYS 3-5...INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.1N 72.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 73.2W 50 KT...INLAND OVER HAITI
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.7N 74.5W 60 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 30/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W 55 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 31/0000Z 22.4N 76.1W 55 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.0N 74.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...NOEL...A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT...CONTINUES TO SPREAD VERY HEAVY
RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI EARLY ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N...72.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

[cpdaman]

i think mountain effects will obliterate this system starting in the wee hours of the morning thru tommorrow afternoon.

which is good news for those in parts of the bahamas, but obviously not good for flooding threats in haiti/dominican

i just don't see how this system with all the convection to the east is going to survive the interaction w/ land, especially since it is moving so slowly. 02 cents