Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Derek Ortt]

the Lake will only recover with a massive flood. That is what is needed to raise the Lake levels. By lowering the Lake artifically by 35%, we need a major surplus (devastating flood) to allow the Lake to recover to the pre cluster you know what levels

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 281923
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1923 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NOEL (AL162007) 20071028 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071028 1800 071029 0600 071029 1800 071030 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 71.8W 17.8N 73.4W 19.1N 75.2W 19.7N 76.9W
BAMD 16.6N 71.8W 17.8N 72.5W 19.4N 73.6W 20.8N 74.5W
BAMM 16.6N 71.8W 17.7N 73.0W 19.1N 74.4W 20.2N 75.6W
LBAR 16.6N 71.8W 17.5N 72.4W 19.0N 73.2W 20.5N 74.0W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 67KTS 75KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 61KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071030 1800 071031 1800 071101 1800 071102 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 78.6W 20.3N 80.6W 20.4N 81.0W 21.8N 80.2W
BAMD 21.8N 75.3W 23.9N 76.1W 27.6N 74.4W 33.1N 71.8W
BAMM 20.8N 76.9W 21.9N 78.6W 23.6N 79.0W 26.7N 77.6W
LBAR 21.9N 74.5W 24.1N 74.6W 26.0N 74.1W 28.8N 72.2W
SHIP 82KTS 87KTS 83KTS 74KTS
DSHP 41KTS 44KTS 40KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 71.8W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 71.4W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 71.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

[wxman57]

Additionally, it looks like cloud tops are warming per recent satellite data. The center's current motion and location further ENE implies more land interaction with Hispaniola. I think this may be Noel's peak, and it was likely a TS much earlier than indicated by the TPC. I hate to say, "It's done!" but recent trends suggest this is the case. Additionally, it looks like UL shear is affecting the western quadrant via an adjacent upper low. Noel may eventually make a direct strike on Hispaniola. Although this may (emphasis added to reflect uncertainties) diminish the United States risk, I feel terrible that heavy precipitation will affect Haiti and the DR. This may cause numerous deaths because of deforestation and economic quagmires. Remember Jeanne '04 - it killed more than 3,000 people in Haiti. It is very sad that this system will probably cross Hispaniola. We should be concerned about these folks.

Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours says the NHC. I will go with their expertise.

Well, I'm going with wxman57's thoughts.

I'm not sure what that means, I just said it may have weakened some since 4-6 hours ago when cloud tops were colder. Doesn't mean it can't strengthen later. It probably will. TCs are constantly going through strengthening and weakening phases.

[Ivanhater]

Just looked at the models...most bend it back west..was not expecting that

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281942
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 15 20071028
192430 1646N 07243W 9769 00226 0024 +241 +220 028029 031 038 000 00
192500 1646N 07241W 9768 00225 0024 +241 +220 032028 029 038 000 00
192530 1646N 07240W 9770 00224 0023 +241 +220 029030 032 038 000 00
192600 1646N 07238W 9776 00217 0022 +241 +220 029030 031 040 000 00
192630 1646N 07237W 9769 00223 0020 +240 +220 031030 032 039 000 00
192700 1646N 07235W 9771 00220 0019 +239 +220 028030 031 039 000 00
192730 1646N 07234W 9773 00217 0019 +233 +220 028032 033 041 000 00
192800 1646N 07233W 9772 00217 0017 +234 +220 029034 036 040 000 00
192830 1646N 07231W 9775 00213 0016 +235 +220 030036 037 047 000 00
192900 1646N 07230W 9772 00214 0015 +235 +220 032036 038 044 000 00
192930 1646N 07228W 9767 00218 0014 +234 +220 030036 037 042 000 00
193000 1646N 07227W 9774 00213 0013 +234 +220 028036 037 048 000 00
193030 1646N 07225W 9778 00207 0013 +234 +220 031036 039 042 000 00
193100 1646N 07224W 9771 00213 0011 +234 +220 034038 039 047 000 00
193130 1646N 07222W 9769 00215 0010 +234 +220 036036 038 047 000 00
193200 1646N 07221W 9774 00207 0009 +234 +220 038038 039 047 001 00
193230 1646N 07220W 9770 00209 0007 +233 +220 042037 038 045 000 00
193300 1646N 07218W 9773 00205 0006 +231 +220 040039 040 045 000 00
193330 1646N 07217W 9769 00207 0004 +229 +220 041041 042 046 000 00
193400 1646N 07216W 9771 00206 0004 +232 +220 039039 040 044 000 03
$$
;

[HUC]

cycloneye,this huge mass of rain is moving north,and you should have a good deal with the squalls,like yersterday for Guadeloupe that was at this time in the same situation than PRico to day(4 to 6 inches recorded in some locations here) So be safe,and we pray for the unfortunate people of Hispanola .....

[Vortex]

Folks in florida..Due to gradient this is what NWS Miami is calling for even without Noel...



Tuesday...Windy. Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms...then isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph becoming 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph becoming 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

[ronjon]

It looks to me that the storm is still being sheared by the ULL off the NE coast of Cuba. Convection is displaced to the NE of the center. The ULL is moving W or W-NW. I don't know where the NHC is getting the N-NW movement - perhaps because of the shearing distorting the motion - it appears to me to be moving slowly W-NW in tandem with the ULL.

[cycloneye]

cycloneye,this huge mass of rain is moving north,and you should have a good deal with the squalls,like yersterday for Guadeloupe that was at this time in the same situation than PRico to day(4 to 6 inches recorded in some locations here) So be safe,and we pray for the unfortunate people of Hispanola .....

Yes,it looks like it will move thru this evening and in the overnight hours.I am praying that nothing bad occurs here nor in Haiti,Dominicam Republic,Jamaica,Cuba,Bahamas and an outside chance in Southern Florida.

[MiamiensisWx]

Jim,

I apologize for my poor wording. I initially thought you also stated that it may not restrengthen to hurricane status post-Hispaniola. Personally, I think WV imagery reveals many minute details with respect to the current UA pattern. Click here. You can observe some signs of outflow boundaries in the most recent frames as inflow and outflow are "stunted" (restricted) on the western semicircle. This indicates some strong shear because of the adjacent upper low's influence. It is evidently becoming less organized in the recent images. It should not be downplayed for Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Cuba, NE Antilles, and others, but I'm just compiling some observations. Additionally, shear will be increasing via UL divergence when the next s/w approaches the W Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281947
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 16 20071028
193430 1644N 07215W 9766 00208 0003 +231 +220 038041 043 043 000 03
193500 1643N 07214W 9766 00209 0002 +235 +220 039040 043 047 000 00
193530 1641N 07214W 9770 00204 9999 +234 +220 041045 046 045 000 00
193600 1639N 07213W 9774 00198 9998 +231 +220 040043 045 043 000 00
193630 1638N 07213W 9764 00206 9998 +224 +220 038040 042 043 000 00
193700 1636N 07212W 9771 00198 9996 +234 +220 038033 036 038 002 00
193730 1635N 07211W 9774 00195 9994 +242 +220 041029 031 035 000 00
193800 1633N 07211W 9771 00198 9994 +241 +220 035028 028 999 999 03
193830 1633N 07209W 9773 00195 9994 +239 +220 029025 027 035 000 00
193900 1633N 07208W 9770 00197 9993 +235 +220 024025 026 035 000 00
193930 1633N 07206W 9771 00196 9992 +235 +220 020021 022 032 000 00
194000 1633N 07205W 9768 00197 9991 +241 +220 016017 019 030 000 00
194030 1633N 07203W 9774 00191 9989 +244 +220 011015 016 032 000 00
194100 1633N 07201W 9769 00193 9987 +240 +220 359013 014 029 000 00
194130 1633N 07200W 9769 00191 9986 +234 +220 351013 014 028 000 00
194200 1633N 07158W 9770 00189 9984 +233 +220 337013 013 029 000 00
194230 1633N 07156W 9769 00188 9983 +231 +220 313014 014 029 000 00
194300 1633N 07155W 9771 00185 9981 +239 +220 287014 015 029 000 00
194330 1633N 07153W 9774 00182 9980 +241 +220 267017 018 030 000 03
194400 1634N 07152W 9771 00183 9977 +239 +220 245016 017 032 000 03
$$
;

[psyclone]

normal rainfall in Dade does nothing for the lake. rainfall up the peninsula from the lake northward (with the exception of a small part of marion county) has been well below normal this year. that's the runoff that would feed the lake. that in conjuction with poor management puts us in our current quandry. so it's both man made and natural. Unfortunately, Noel does not look like it will help us.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks derek for the drought explanation

how is noel moving now?

when i looked at goes it looked like West:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[Derek Ortt]

this is not becoming less organized at all. It has merely stopped intensifying for the time being.

I expect this to make a run at cane status prior to Haitian landfall

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281957
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 17 20071028
194430 1636N 07151W 9770 00177 9972 +241 +220 209018 019 031 000 00
194500 1637N 07150W 9766 00179 9969 +247 +220 194021 022 031 001 03
194530 1638N 07151W 9781 00165 9966 +253 +220 174017 019 032 000 00
194600 1639N 07153W 9762 00180 9964 +250 +220 124008 011 028 006 03
194630 1639N 07155W 9772 00167 9960 +251 +220 061009 012 032 005 00
194700 1638N 07156W 9767 00172 9962 +254 +220 029019 024 031 001 00
194730 1638N 07158W 9765 00181 9970 +244 +220 024037 040 041 000 00
194800 1637N 07159W 9776 00180 9978 +238 +220 015037 041 999 999 03
194830 1636N 07158W 9783 00167 9971 +247 +220 357022 027 034 000 03
194900 1636N 07156W 9766 00177 9964 +260 +220 314008 010 027 000 03
194930 1637N 07155W 9769 001;f7&Wf7&'''GFv&6V
195000 1638N 07153W 9769 00171 9964 +249 +220 160010 012 028 003 00
195030 1639N 07152W 9775 00173 9970 +245 +220 136012 015 032 002 00
195100 1641N 07151W 9766 00185 9975 +247 +220 133012 014 029 003 00
195130 1642N 07150W 9769 00186 9978 +249 +220 150011 012 031 002 00
195200 1643N 07149W 9774 00185 9983 +244 +220 133012 013 031 006 00
195230 1644N 07148W 9768 00193 9987 +234 +220 120013 014 037 008 00
195300 1645N 07147W 9772 00191 9989 +227 +220 105015 016 037 009 00
195330 1646N 07145W 9765 00199 9991 +231 +220 097014 014 035 006 00
195400 1647N 07144W 9761 00209 9997 +222 +220 059026 035 045 002 00
$$
;

Strange error in the data...

[MiamiensisWx]

this is not becoming less organized at all. It has merely stopped intensifying for the time being.

I expect this to make a run at cane status prior to Haitian landfall

I respectfully disagree, Derek. The inner core is poorly defined on visible imagery and microwave data.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vis.html

WV indicates an adjacent upper low that has been producing strong UL divergence.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Personally, I believe Noel is not even close to sufficient organization in order to attain hurricane status, and I don't see any signs of substantial additional intensification. The key word is "substantial".

[Typhoon_Willie]

Only time will tell who is correct here.

[Derek Ortt]

recon ahs confirmed my intrepretation of the satellite imagery.

We also have a somewhat symmetric windfield. This is not typical of a highly sheared TC

[boca]

Will that area in the Western Caribbean effect the path of Noel along with the weakening high?

[Vortex]

I think this will make a run for cane status overnight. I do think there is an equal chance it remains just offshore the Haitian peninsula.