Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

storm looks to have slowed quite a bit this morning

Enjoying your weekend? I got 3 hours sleep. Obs don't show much of an LLC. I think NHC upgraded it a bit too soon. Could be a swirl near 16.5N/72.5W.

[ExBailbonds]

God bless the pros who sacrifice there sleep to keep us up to date.

Thanks Guys

[P.K.]

WTNT41 KNHC 280855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON INFRARED OR
NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO ARE NOT
CONCLUSIVE...BUT SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING ON ITS
PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/6. DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LACKS ANY APPRECIABLE BANDING...AND A
RECENT ASCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE THAT ANY STRENGTHENING HAS
OCCURRED. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMPARTING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL WASH OUT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE UNDER A LESS HOSTILE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BE IDEAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LAND
INTERACTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WOULD HINDER
STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS...WHICH
SUGGEST A MORE VERTICALLY-CONNECTED CYCLONE THAN APPEARS TO
EXIST...ARE LARGELY BEING DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM.

TRACK FORECASTING OF WEAK SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS IS
PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING...AND THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC PLAYERS ARE THE
UPPER-LOW ALREADY MENTIONED...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION...AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT
FOUR DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF LIE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT
FROM AN OVERLY STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER
SCENARIO IS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LOW...BUT THEN BEND BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE DAYS AROUND THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL
GYRE...BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEASTWARD WHEN THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES ON DAYS 4-5. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE UKMET. ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ARE THE BAM MODELS AND THE
GFS...WHICH TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES AND
SLOWLY RECURVES THE CYCLONE. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS WORTH REITERATING THAT THE UNCERTAINTY
LEVEL IS HIGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 16.2N 72.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 73.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 74.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.9N 76.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.7N 77.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 21.5N 80.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 23.0N 79.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 25.0N 77.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Derek Ortt]

I don't see much at 72.5. I am seeing something closer to 71.5, maybe a reformation or a mid level swirl.

Visible imagery will be a big help in a few hours, as will recon

[Vortex]

noticed the same thing..

[boca]

Do I really need to seriously be concerned here in Florida about 16L recurving NE way before it gets here by all the models? I'm not getting into the hype this time. We probably won't even get a drop of much needed rain from this either.

[stu]

Worrying output from the UKMET Model.... we will have to see if this comes to pass in about 15 hours time...



00UTC 28.10.2007 16.2N 70.8W WEAK

12UTC 28.10.2007 16.3N 72.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 29.10.2007 17.4N 72.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 29.10.2007 18.2N 72.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 30.10.2007 21.0N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.10.2007 22.0N 76.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

God bless the pros who sacrifice there sleep to keep us up to date.

Thanks Guys

Bah, Humbug! I'm going take a 2-hr nap before the next advisory is due.

[stu]

Err..... Take a look at IR sat - TD 16 is under going rapid intensification right now !!!

[jlauderdal]

Err..... Take a look at IR sat - TD 16 is under going rapid intensification right now !!!

hey stu,

u going to that big nfl showdown featuring the powerful dolphins

[Thunder44]

Recon isn't scheduled to be in there until this afternoon. Hopefully the QS pass this morning will not miss it. If there is a LLC under the convection, it looks alot stronger than a TD.

[Vortex]

Very impressive convection this morning..Appears UL is filling to the NW and allowing the shear to subside. If the LLC is underneath the convection I'm going with 995mb/55mph and strengthening...First visibles should tell the story.

[stu]

Off topic

Sorry but I have no idea what the nfl showdown is ....

Err..... Take a look at IR sat - TD 16 is under going rapid intensification right now !!!

hey stu,

u going to that big nfl showdown featuring the powerful dolphins

[Vortex]

Stu,

Miami VS NY Giants across the pond today

[Thunder44]

The QS pass is in as of 9:32 UTC. It looks like it will largely miss the TD.

[Derek Ortt]

doesn't the QS always miss the storm when we need a pass?

However, we will have recon in a few hours

[ronjon]

06Z GFS shows that the path for this storm may not be set in stone yet. It shows the main parent low tracking to south of Cuba and meandering southwest and dying, while another low pressure forms in the NE Bahamas and shoots off NE. Could be a bogus run but it tells me that this system could still miss the first trough and get stuck in the NW caribbean.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_slp_su_loop.shtml

[Thunder44]

036
WTNT31 KNHC 281147
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT
215 MILES...345 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD PASS SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA...HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
WILL PASS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN
JAMAICA...4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N...72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[jlauderdal]

06Z GFS shows that the path for this storm may not be set in stone yet. It shows the main parent low tracking to south of Cuba and meandering southwest and dying, while another low pressure forms in the NE Bahamas and shoots off NE. Could be a bogus run but it tells me that this system could still miss the first trough and get stuck in the NW caribbean.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_slp_su_loop.shtml

when you read that 5 am disco i would say nhc agrees about nothing in stone. this thing could go anywhere but we do know at some point it will go NE the question is when.

[cycloneye]

Is this stationary? I ask because we are getting again another round of heavy rains from the back edge of the system.See the threat thread at the top of forum for details of the warnings and information related.