Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Even with the current model paths there is likely to
be heavy squalls and wind over south florida (Miami
key west)

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

00z GFS Rolling in...

Brings it over Maimi now

[wzrgirl1]

i mean really if you think about it....how strong can it get if it's going over cuba?

[caribepr]

5 dead so far on the big island of PR and impacting the DR and Haiti, where mudslides are common and usually bring deaths...the numbers will climb.

[wzrgirl1]

5 dead so far on the big island of PR and impacting the DR and Haiti, where mudslides are common and usually bring deaths...the numbers will climb.

i am really sorry to hear that....doesn't take a strong storm to kill and cause damage i guess.....my prayers go out

[fci]

And then a sharp right turn;like a 90 degree turn

[RL3AO]

I expect a TS watch/warning for at least the eastern half of Jamaica soon. (5am probably)

[Vortex]

00z CMC Western Bahamas-a little further west than 12Z
00z GFS very near S.FL than NE
00z Nogaps western Cuba/SFL

[RL3AO]

BTW, we still need an ACE of 10.8 to get to "near normal" for the season.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC

[Vortex]

Becoming better organized as I type..TS likely 11am or first recon.

[Bane]

it would be nice if it could stay weak and ride up the eastern seaboard. we're still 18" below normal for rain this year.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt

[Vortex]

2AM Advisory..


Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on October 28, 2007

...Depression remains poorly organized...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border
westward to Port-au-Prince. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the provinces of
Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 200 am EDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 16.0 north...longitude 71.7 west or about
185 miles...295 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph...
11 km/hr. A motion toward northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. This motion could bring the center of the depression near
the southwestern peninsula of Haiti later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are possible in the warned area.

The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches over Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12
inches are expected over Jamaica and southeastern Cuba...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Additional rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during
the next 24 hours. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 200 am EDT position...16.0 N...71.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35
mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 500 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[jaxfladude]

Already a killer .....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Walking down the side of a street can easly kill people. A few month ago, I was walking down the street in 2 girls where running across the street about 200 feet down the road, and a car hit them in knocked them into the air, and 20 feet the other way. Life is not a sure thing. Heck you can sit in your house on the phone or computer during a lighting storm, and it can kill you. Its sad when it happens, but its life.

This system does not look to bad. Maybe a tropical storm by tomarrow at 11am est.

[Meso]

[Meso]

WHXX01 KWBC 280628
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0628 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162007) 20071028 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071028 0600 071028 1800 071029 0600 071029 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 71.8W 16.9N 73.3W 17.4N 74.7W 18.1N 76.1W
BAMD 16.1N 71.8W 16.9N 72.5W 17.8N 73.4W 18.9N 74.6W
BAMM 16.1N 71.8W 16.8N 73.1W 17.3N 74.3W 18.1N 75.7W
LBAR 16.1N 71.8W 16.9N 72.7W 18.1N 73.7W 19.4N 74.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071030 0600 071031 0600 071101 0600 071102 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 77.5W 19.8N 79.7W 20.8N 80.6W 21.7N 80.5W
BAMD 20.0N 75.8W 21.7N 77.6W 24.9N 76.4W 30.4N 70.6W
BAMM 18.8N 76.8W 19.9N 79.0W 21.3N 80.1W 24.0N 78.9W
LBAR 20.9N 74.9W 23.6N 75.3W 26.2N 74.4W 30.0N 70.7W
SHIP 57KTS 68KTS 69KTS 59KTS
DSHP 57KTS 68KTS 50KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 71.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 71.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 69.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 125NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

storm looks to have slowed quite a bit this morning