Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[wzrgirl1]

i will have an eagle eye on this the next 48 hours.....no other storm has peaked my interest this season as this one has.....

[Blown Away]

I was just plotting the model data and notice an "OFCI" plot. That's an unofficial NHC "interpolated" forecast track based on some preliminary data someone there entered. Note that as a preliminary track, the forecaster just went right between the shallow and mid-layer BAM models. But also note that the dynamic models all turn the system northward to the east of the non-dynamic BAM models.
On satellite, it looks about the same as it has the past day or two now. Exposed low-level swirl with convection sheared off to the east. Winds 10-15 kts around the swirl. Not a TD yet, probably another 24-36 hours to go at least.

Which are more reliable "Dynamic" or "Non-Dynamic"? Would you expect the "OFCI" to shift more N since most of dynamic models are going that way?

[caribepr]

There are people here wondering about a Wrong Way Lenny scenerio. I'm just waiting to see what happens.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[bvigal]

I should have been more clear - I haven't seen it on radar today, haven't been home, but watched it for quite a while last night. I was finally so intrigued at the persistance of this pattern that at 2:45 this morning I saved a picture of it, at about 16.3N 66.0W. I even drew on the picture which direction the rain clouds were moving - but the NW arrow is wrong, that rain was moving due W. (I was pretty sleepy at that point! )

[HURAKAN]

Radar:

[bvigal]

Whoops! Looks like I posed the question on the other thread last night at 9:30 or so, should have posted it here!

I've seen a spin on the radar loop all afternoon and this evening, is that a mid-level low? It was south of Vieques, now south of PR.

Anyway, if it's mid-level, would it still cause a drop in surface pressure, or is it still attached to 90L farther west?

[bvigal]

wxman, thanks for the beam calculator, that's cool!

[HURAKAN]

181
ABNT20 KNHC 272112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION
IN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CURACAO. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[bvigal]

There are people here wondering about a Wrong Way Lenny scenerio. I'm just waiting to see what happens.

MJ, that is a big discussion around here, too. Many think conditions lately are similar, and that this thing could turn around in a few days time and bite us!

[Vortex]

I can't stress enough those folks in DR/Haiti are going to experience tremendous rains this evening with the potential for devastating Flash Flooding and Mudslides. This is a very serious situation beginning to unfold tonight...

[Blown Away]

I guess it's just me, but 90L looks to be moving WNW to NW not W to WNW.

[CrazyC83]

I can't stress enough those folks in DR/Haiti are going to experience tremendous rains this evening with the potential for devastating Flash Flooding and Mudslides. This is a very serious situation beginning to unfold tonight...

For them, it makes no difference if this is named or not. The effects will be the same.

[Derek Ortt]

most models have this moving over Haiti late tomorrow.

Could have a sheared TS by that time, with the stage set for RI in the Bahamas

[Blown Away]

most models have this moving over Haiti late tomorrow.

Could have a sheared TS by that time, with the stage set for RI in the Bahamas

Looks like a NW track heading towards Haiti rate now, not sure how the NHC has it moving W to WNW rate now? It won't cross Haiti if it moves W to WNW.

[Vortex]

18z guidance rolling in suggests a wnw/nw for the next 24 then a more w/wnw motion thereafter as ridging to the north becomes well established. This seems reasonable and follows the ukmet/nogaps/gfs solutions...

[Vortex]

20N/80W may be where the hard turn to the north begins...

[fci]

most models have this moving over Haiti late tomorrow.

Could have a sheared TS by that time, with the stage set for RI in the Bahamas

Would this survive a trip across Hispanola?
If so, Florida would probably be out of its sights and it would be well east of us.

[cycloneye]

There is a models thread.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Convection getting closer to the center.