Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Cyclone1]

Well, Alberto in 06 was upgraded under similar struture. The fact that it's cose to land and could be a potential threat may persuade the NHC to upgrade a bit earlier than normal.

Maybe that's just me speculating.

[P.K.]

what foes the TAFB say? 1.5?

Correct - T1.5/1.5

[HURAKAN]

Lots of rainfall over PR.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 18:15 UTC:



A little more convection in the past hour.

[Squarethecircle]

Hmm, this is quite interesting. Both of the most recent GFDL and HWRF runs have this as Hurricane Noel through the Bahamas.

[fci]

Miami AFD is now mentioning this:

"For the extended period...our transition zone no man's land is
problematic as several models show a tropical disturbance moving
west near Cuba Tuesday and a further increasing pressure gradient
strengthening our winds from the northeast. Will trend in this
direction. The westerlies begin to assert themselves across the
Florida Peninsula by midweek and should eventually shunt any
tropical disturbance off to the northeast or keep it in the lower
latitudes. How far west any disturbance actually comes before
beginning to trek off to the northeast and how long it remains in
our vicinity will greatly influence the forecast and ultimate
weather for South Florida. For now, will accept the 12z GFS scenario
of the disturbance making it to western Cuba before beginning to
move off northeast through the central Bahamas. Nevertheless there
is potential for a devilish Halloween/all saints day with some kind
of tropical system in our vicinity. Stay tuned!"

Kind of bullish for a Miami AFD.
TRICK..................OR........................TREAT?????????????????

[bvigal]

I thought TAFB said 1.0, also. I must be looking in the wrong place. Can someone please steer me to the correct information?

This sure doesn't look very impressive on satellite.

[BigA]

I think it still has to move some westward before shear decreases, but I really dont understand shear that well...it just looks like there is less the farther west it goes.

[WeatherEmperor]

From looking at the model maps at the 90L model discussion thread, it appears that the model consensus takes this 90L and keeps it away from Florida. Is it safe to say that FL is safe from this or not?

<RICKY>

[Evil Jeremy]

No way is Florida safe yet. It all depends on the timing of the front.

[jlauderdal]

Miami AFD is now mentioning this:

"For the extended period...our transition zone no man's land is
problematic as several models show a tropical disturbance moving
west near Cuba Tuesday and a further increasing pressure gradient
strengthening our winds from the northeast. Will trend in this
direction. The westerlies begin to assert themselves across the
Florida Peninsula by midweek and should eventually shunt any
tropical disturbance off to the northeast or keep it in the lower
latitudes. How far west any disturbance actually comes before
beginning to trek off to the northeast and how long it remains in
our vicinity will greatly influence the forecast and ultimate
weather for South Florida. For now, will accept the 12z GFS scenario
of the disturbance making it to western Cuba before beginning to
move off northeast through the central Bahamas. Nevertheless there
is potential for a devilish Halloween/all saints day with some kind
of tropical system in our vicinity. Stay tuned!"

Kind of bullish for a Miami AFD.
TRICK..................OR........................TREAT?????????????????

there was nothing to talk about all season so they are going for broke

[cycloneye]

The last model with the 12z run,EURO:

12z EURO



Close call for Southern Florida.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I hope that South Fla and Lake Okeechobee get a good soaking from this system... Preferably a weak system at that he he. In any case Lake Okeechobee is still quite far under the average lake level and so we will need the rain. Hopefully we will get it!

[cycloneye]

I hope that South Fla and Lake Okeechobee get a good soaking from this system... Preferably a weak system at that he he. In any case Lake Okeechobee is still quite far under the average lake level and so we will need the rain. Hopefully we will get it!

That is the good news about having this system go to Southern Florida.Look what is happening in PR and the islands with all the rain that has fallen.5+ inches in the lake will be a big blessing.

[fci]

I guess you are right but they are usually so conservative and stoic about systems unlike some other AFD's that discuss possibilities.

If it follows their usual trend they will totally ignore the issue for the next couple of days!

The thing is when we reach this time of year with the climitalogical trend to move systems NE out of the NW Carib AND with both Derek and wxman57 mentioning development and South Florida; this one needs to followed closely. Add in the Miami AFD and it is the closest we have been to a potential issue.

[Rainband]

Models seem to be trending east. This may miss Florida.

[fci]

I hope that South Fla and Lake Okeechobee get a good soaking from this system... Preferably a weak system at that he he. In any case Lake Okeechobee is still quite far under the average lake level and so we will need the rain. Hopefully we will get it!

That is the good news about having this system go to Southern Florida.Look what is happening in PR and the islands with all the rain that has fallen.5+ inches in the lake will be a big blessing.

and considering we don't have the danger of mudslides (unless things slide totally sideways ( ); we can handle many inches of rain at a time.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Hell for that matter I would not mind seeing Fla get doused from one end to the other and then see Georgia get the rains as well!

Agreed Cycloneye a 5 inch plus rainfall event would be good for the lake!

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 19:15 UTC:



A little more convection in the past 2 hours.

[Rainband]

No way is Florida safe yet. It all depends on the timing of the front.

Yes but with the models trending east and the high forecast... it may have a better chance of missing the State.