Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[gatorcane]

I just don't want it to develop before tonight. I want a day off to watch some football

Me too Go Gators

[wzrgirl1]

I just don't want it to develop before tonight. I want a day off to watch some football

Me too Go Gators

cocktail party at 3:30.....don't think we will have td before then and by the way.......go gators is right!!!

[wzrgirl1]

thanks for the michelle track....how about lili?

[Cyclone1]

[Evil Jeremy]

It is no longer a matter of if, but when this forms, and when it does, it all depends on when the cold front arrives.

Also, it is amazing how fast a topic can go from a few posts an hour to a few pages an hour after a TWO.

[cycloneye]

And there is Wilma.

Which of the above three tracks this will take?

[wzrgirl1]

thanks for those.....lili or michelle would be ideal wouldn't affect the mainland....timing is everything

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We could have a wild end of the week next week

[Evil Jeremy]

The Halloween Hurricane. That would be a great nickname.

[Cyclone1]

Michelle caused crazy damage in Cuba, track wise yes, but intensity wise, not cool.

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 27 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-155

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA - CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 16.0N 74.5W
E. SFC TO 10,000 FT FROM 1730Z TO 2200Z

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 29/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 29/0300Z
D. 16.1N 76.0W
E. SFC TO 10,000FT FROM 0500Z TO 0900Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
WARRANTS.


Tommorow afternoon the first recon mission towards 90L/TD16?.I am reposting this as the thread has runned very rapidly in the last half an hour.

[Frank2]

This might be a bit premature, but, I'll have mine with fries...

[wzrgirl1]

i am trying to remember....was south florida under any type of warnings for michelle or lili?

[cycloneye]

The latest at 15:45 UTC:

[Vortex]

Derek,

I think a few weeks back you mentioned how in La Nina years since the early 90's we have always had at least 1 major cane to form in October?

[wxman57]

yeah, development likely

watch carefully in south Florida. I have already alerted some of my friends here to watch for a TS/hurricane next week (not a certainity, but a possibility

Yeah, I agree, Derek. Development becoming more likely. I upped the chances to 60 percent TS/20 percent hurricane on my latest forecast, and was tempted to go 30 percent hurricane. South Florida could certainly be impacted, but there's tremendous uncertainty in the track. It could turn sooner and miss Florida to the east, or stall in the NW Caribbean for longer, waiting for the next system to pick it up.

At least I can take part of today off for a bike ride. May get a ride in tomorrow, too. I still think it won't become a TD until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest and most likely on Monday.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

YESS!!!! Finally Something I can Stormchase or even video
as it zooms to my south!!!!

StormChasing is fun!

[wzrgirl1]

starting to see some fanning out of clouds

[Vortex]

TBH,

This ones for you..You might not have to go very far to video this one..

[cycloneye]

Folks,when Derek and wxman57 agree on this developing,it has to get the attention from all of us.