Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Cyc,
Both links are for NOGAPS. PLease re-post UKMET. Thnkas

Done.And added the EURO.

[caneman]

Looks like it is more organized today with convection consolodating. The 5:30 TWO is suspect. Looks like a copy and paste from 10:30 last night. I think we ae seeing an improving system.

[cycloneye]

[ronjon]

Shear has relaxed to about 10-20 kts from 30+ kts yesterday. Convection is developing near the center and also getting pulled toward the center. I look for continued slow organization as shear gradually relaxes over the next 24-48 hrs as it moves west. Systems forward speed has slowed too. Circulation center still looks rather broad but is vigorous - should see that tighten and deepen with time though as convection builds.

[cycloneye]

27/1145 UTC 14.9N 70.4W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

If Dvorak is correct, then the low continues to be exposed.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 271234
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC SAT OCT 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071027 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071027 1200 071028 0000 071028 1200 071029 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071029 1200 071030 1200 071031 1200 071101 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
SHIP 58KTS 68KTS 68KTS 59KTS
DSHP 58KTS 58KTS 53KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 70.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 68.4W DIRM12 = 239DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 66.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Interesting that none of the BAM models are here.SHIP and DSHP start at 30kts.

[wxman57]

I was going to place the "center" near 15N/70.2W based on visible imagery. But the LLC we've been following is well west-northwest of there and dissipated. I don't see an LLC near 15N/70.2W, just some mid-level turning. Wind shear still very high. Nothing will happen today. Still probably Monday at the earliest when it may try to get organized.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 271243
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC SAT OCT 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071027 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071027 1200 071028 0000 071028 1200 071029 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 70.2W 15.9N 72.1W 16.8N 74.0W 17.5N 75.6W
BAMD 15.1N 70.2W 15.5N 71.2W 16.3N 72.1W 17.2N 72.9W
BAMM 15.1N 70.2W 15.8N 71.7W 16.5N 73.2W 17.1N 74.5W
LBAR 15.1N 70.2W 15.4N 71.6W 16.8N 73.1W 18.0N 73.6W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071029 1200 071030 1200 071031 1200 071101 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 77.1W 18.4N 80.0W 18.9N 82.9W 19.2N 84.4W
BAMD 18.2N 73.8W 20.1N 75.7W 21.4N 77.2W 23.7N 76.6W
BAMM 17.7N 75.7W 18.8N 78.1W 19.7N 80.7W 21.0N 82.3W
LBAR 19.7N 74.2W 22.0N 74.5W 23.7N 74.1W 25.2N 73.2W
SHIP 56KTS 65KTS 69KTS 66KTS
DSHP 56KTS 59KTS 63KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 70.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 68.4W DIRM12 = 239DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 66.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Now all the BAMS are there in the updated run.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ships says Cane!

[Blown Away]

27/1145 UTC 14.9N 70.4W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

The convection is building around that area. At least it's not completely exposed like it was yesterday.

[caneman]

Looks like this could be a TD today.

[wxman57]

Now that the LLC has dissipated, it might actually have a better chance of spinning up closer to the convection by late tomorrow or Sunday if/when the wind shear finally relaxes. My track still takes it across western Cuba toward south Florida on Wed/Thu then NE and out to sea. 40% shot at becoming a TS, 10% of that in becoming a hurricane. That leaves 60% it never develops past a disturbance or sheared TD.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That path on nogaps brings it near the FL
peninsula...and so does BAMM and GFS according
to storm2k model plot posted above.

[Sanibel]

Plenty of trailing energy in that convection. This one might have a better chance than those naked spirals sheared off during that previous monsoon trough a few weeks ago. Caribbean is the hot spot this year.

Can't find surface feature on visible. Should form if shear relaxes.

[wzrgirl1]

definitely a nice blob of energy.....i think we may have Noel in the next couple of days....and then well....a Halloween surprise in florida??

[Gustywind]

Latest from Meteo-France 10 am
http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/s ... Tagant.jpg
Once again today... showers for everboby in east NE N carib... so we should not be jealous we have.. that's fair lot of water today and during the previous days ...but the sun is.. i hope in our hearth
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Amazing shear doting the area, i'm very dubtful given this chart...and since Ingrid shear does not seem to abate if my head doesn't deceivingme :cheesy
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Olympics shear Games continues

[cycloneye]

Possible development next 24 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND IS NOW CENTERED HALFWAY BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND ARUBA.
THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SQUALLS WHICH ARE AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...PRIMARILY
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE
AREA ON SUNDAY IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[canegrl04]

Holy Cow Now lets see if it becomes anything stronger than a TS.What name would we be on?Its been so long I forgot