Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[ronjon]

18Z GFS brings the low north from western Cuba and through central FL to offshore Daytona Beach by Thursday. A much faster solution than some of the other models.

[ronjon]

[jaxfladude]

Windy rainmaker for FLA....a bit chilly too.....if it pans
out...

[cycloneye]

Is convection starting to form near or over the low?

[chadtm80]

Sure would feel wierd to have a Tropical Storm with highs only in the 70's

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 270037
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC SAT OCT 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071027 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071027 0000 071027 1200 071028 0000 071028 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 68.4W 16.8N 70.4W 17.6N 72.7W 18.2N 75.2W
BAMD 16.1N 68.4W 15.9N 69.4W 16.5N 70.3W 17.3N 71.1W
BAMM 16.1N 68.4W 16.2N 70.1W 16.9N 71.7W 17.6N 73.2W
LBAR 16.1N 68.4W 16.0N 70.3W 17.0N 72.0W 18.2N 73.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071029 0000 071030 0000 071031 0000 071101 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 77.4W 18.6N 81.2W 18.9N 83.7W 19.8N 84.3W
BAMD 18.3N 71.8W 20.8N 73.6W 23.0N 75.0W 25.1N 75.3W
BAMM 18.3N 74.6W 20.0N 77.3W 21.9N 80.0W 25.1N 81.3W
LBAR 19.8N 74.5W 22.6N 76.0W 25.2N 74.7W 26.4N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 58KTS 63KTS 58KTS
DSHP 46KTS 49KTS 49KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 68.4W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 66.5W DIRM12 = 236DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 64.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Cyclone1]

[wishcast]
That's be nice. I'd love a nice weak tropical storm followed by a cold front. I actually hope the models are correct on this one.
[/wishcast]

[jinftl]

Sure would feel wierd to have a Tropical Storm with highs only in the 70's

In general, I would imagine that a moist flow would accompany a tropical system, returning areas effected to a humid, tropical air mass up to and during a storm...although we saw during wilma that a whole other airmass can be dragged in after a storm...which made the power being out bearable for sure!

[Blown Away]

I can't tell if 90L is maintaining the LLC or if it has become very broad and open.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 270225
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION THIS
EVENING AND IS NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...IF ANY...IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxman57]

I can't tell if 90L is maintaining the LLC or if it has become very broad and open.

I don't have a lot of observations in that area, but it does look like the LLC is weakening. I estimate the center near 16.7N/70.4W, partly based on extrapolation. It appears the NHC position is a degree south of there, but I don't see it that far south. In any case, I'm 100% certain it won't develop for at the very least 48 hours and probably no earlier than Monday. Development chances 30-40%, but I'm beginning to feel more confident that it won't develop.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM

A very large system...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

How many 90L threads (not counting the model thread) are there.

[Sanibel]

We'll see if it slows down and loops or continues WSW. I assume the convection the to east is associated with the surface spiral.

[fci]

How many 90L threads (not counting the model thread) are there.

Looks like 3 to me:
Models
Discussion
Threat

Make sense to me to have 3 of them.
The Threat one is supposed to be reserved for those in affected areas to pass on information both to each other and to other members who care rightfully concerned for their S2K friends. Others, like us; should avoid the Threat thread so as not to clutter it.

Hope that makes sense.
Good to be able to go to one thread for the models and another to generally discuss the system.
I like it this way for each system especially the Threat thread where we know we can get reports on current conditions for those in the threatened and affected areas.

Having just one thread becomes so cumbersome and tedious if you are looking specifically for current conditions or for models and have to wade through the junk that begins to cover the threads when things heat up; ie one liners and emoticon posts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

How many 90L threads (not counting the model thread) are there.

Looks like 3 to me:
Models
Discussion
Threat

Make sense to me to have 3 of them.
The Threat one is supposed to be reserved for those in affected areas to pass on information both to each other and to other members who care rightfully concerned for their S2K friends. Others, like us; should avoid the Threat thread so as not to clutter it.

Hope that makes sense.
Good to be able to go to one thread for the models and another to generally discuss the system.
I like it this way for each system especially the Threat thread where we know we can get reports on current conditions for those in the threatened and affected areas.

Having just one thread becomes so cumbersome and tedious if you are looking specifically for current conditions or for models and have to wade through the junk that begins to cover the threads when things heat up; ie one liners and emoticon posts.

OK, that makes sense.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection has formed over the LLC. I would say it is pretty soild tropical depression or weak tropical storm. Noel should be here in the next 24-36 hours.

[TampaFl]

Saturday Morning Florida NWS AFD Thoughts:


FXUS62 KMLB 270854
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
450 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SUN...PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER MISSOURI BUILDING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTERACTS WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND INTO THE INLAND AREAS. 40/30 POP LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
BRISK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHALLOWER DEPTH OF MOISTURE THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS.

MON-FRI...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS LOOK SIMILAR AS THEY BOTH
CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY AND LIFT IT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THEIR CENTRAL PRESSURES WITH THE ECMWF BEING
2-3MB LOWER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD IMPACT WIND SPEEDS
LATER IN THE WEEK. EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GRADIENT OF
5 TO 6 MB BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND MIAMI TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AND BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE RELAXING A LITTLE FRIDAY.



000
FXUS62 KKEY 270803
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
355 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.FORECASTS...
HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMMENCE TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN
BY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO WILL INCREASE.
THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH...AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
WINDS GOING AND ALSO WOULD TEND TO SEND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UP FROM
THE SOUTH.

SO WE HAVE A LOT OF INS AND OUTS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST...ALL DEPENDENT UPON EVENTS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WE ARE CLINGING TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR RAIN CHANCES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES ALL BASED UPON EASTERLY FLOW.
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE LATELY...SO LETS WAIT AND
SEE.&&

.MARINE...
IF YOU ARE PLANNING A PASSAGE LATER THIS WEEK YOU WILL WANT TO CHECK
BACK DAILY. THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS MAY BECOME
IMPORTANT.
&&



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270700
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH ATLANTIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS UPPER ENERGY INTERACTS WITH
MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN.&&



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270648
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
248 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE...BETWEEN A COUPLE OF
HIGHS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. ALOFT WILL GENERALLY HAVE ZONAL FLOW...BUT
WILL SEE SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST FLOW. ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.MARINE...C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOYS INDICATING NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE NEAR SHORE AND NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION SPEEDS (15 TO
20 KNOTS) IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS WITH SEA OF
2 TO 4 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
OVER MY NORTHERN WATERS TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GIVEN
THIS WILL HOIST EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS FOR MY OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE
430 AM MARINE PACKAGE. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN NORTH OF THE WATERS COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN PRODUCES A 9-10MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS.&&

[cycloneye]

00z NOGAPS



00z UKMET



Both NOGAPS and UKMET develop it.NOGAPS moves it thru the Florida Peninsula and UKMET moves it slowly thru the NE Caribbean.

00z EURO



The EURO has a weak low that gets stronger after 200 hours off the east coast of .U.S.

[caneman]

Cyc,
Both links are for NOGAPS. PLease re-post UKMET. Thnkas