Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

Here's a high-res McIDAS shot with the low center identified near 17.4N/68W. I added small inflow arrows to indicate low cloud motions around the low center. Still very strong westerly shear across the low. No sign of the shear letting up. I don't expect much to change through at least Saturday.

[Blown Away]

Nice looking LLC, you can see banding. Just needs more convection.

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 26 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-154

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.5N 75.0W AT 28/1800Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

If necessary recon for Sunday afternoon.

[jlauderdal]

could become at least a minimal hurricane in the NW carribean next week...The Keys, SFL, and the Westrn Bahamas will at least experience a prolonged period of winds ranging from 20-30kts and squally weather late Monday through mid-week.

lets be clear that those winds will be the result of a pressure gradient and not a system sitting over Florida.

[boca]

The sad thing is that were tracking a sheared system that looks pathetic at best. Other than dean and Felix that is the theme of the 2007 season. I'll be surprised if 90L gets its act together in the NW Caribbean, but I'll follow it until it gone. Its moving pretty quickly of SW of PR.

[boca]

The low is out running the mid level thunderstorm activityover the Leewards. Wouldn't that cause 90L to go poof?

[wxman57]

The low is out running the mid level thunderstorm activityover the Leewards. Wouldn't that cause 90L to go poof?

The shear certainly could kill it. Probably a better chance than not that it will dissipate. Tremendous westerly wind shear now. Convection is being ripped away well to the east of the LLC. I'm starting to wonder if my 40% chance of development is too high (that's still a 60% chance it gets ripped apart, though). Notice there's considerably more divergence in the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian models now. That's not a good sign if you're looking for development.

By the way, I'd strongly suggest looking at a nice, long (24 hours if you can) WV loop of the SW Atlantic Basin. Ignore the shear maps, just look at the WV loop. Makes you wonder where those light winds aloft are going to come from.

[dixiebreeze]

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 26 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-154

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.5N 75.0W AT 28/1800Z.

[cycloneye]

[bvigal]

By the way, I'd strongly suggest looking at a nice, long (24 hours if you can) WV loop of the SW Atlantic Basin. Ignore the shear maps, just look at the WV loop. Makes you wonder where those light winds aloft are going to come from.

Wxman57, that is the most excellent suggestion I've heard on here in some time, thanks!! And it applies well to any weather in the tropics, not just 90L. I frequently begin to look at the weather with that basin-wide wv loop. It really helps to get a 'big-picture' perspective.
HERE is the one I like. It's not a 24hr, of course, but very useful and can zoom.

[alienstorm]

Same story for 2007 INVEST = POOF

This LLC has outrun the support for continue development. It will probably not develop until it combines with the system in the western carribbean.

[wxman57]

By the way, I'd strongly suggest looking at a nice, long (24 hours if you can) WV loop of the SW Atlantic Basin. Ignore the shear maps, just look at the WV loop. Makes you wonder where those light winds aloft are going to come from.

Wxman57, that is the most excellent suggestion I've heard on here in some time, thanks!! And it applies well to any weather in the tropics, not just 90L. I frequently begin to look at the weather with that basin-wide wv loop. It really helps to get a 'big-picture' perspective.
HERE is the one I like. It's not a 24hr, of course, but very useful and can zoom.

Unfortunately, that loop is too short and not a wide enough view to really get a feel for the flow. I'm looking at a loop that goes from central Texas to western Africa between 20S and 50N latitude. I can go back about 30-36 hours if I like, though I generally run a 24-hr loop. Look at the lobe of that upper low in the central Atlantic rotating southwestward toward the northern Caribbean - right toward 90L.

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I give this a 95% chance of not developing and going poof due to the ULL in the Central Atlantic moving towards 90L. Also the low is out running the convection.That is the story high shear and finally dissapation. The area down by the Caymans even though its a frontal low looks like it might have a better shot than 90L, but its cold core.

[boca]

Looking at the floater even though 90L is racing off to the west their is a lot of cyclonic turning NE of PR that has my attention.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[fci]

could become at least a minimal hurricane in the NW carribean next week...The Keys, SFL, and the Westrn Bahamas will at least experience a prolonged period of winds ranging from 20-30kts and squally weather late Monday through mid-week.

wxman57 posted about this last night. He said that this could possibly bring something to South Florida in the Wed-Thurs time period but not as a hurricane.

Based on this season so far, I would expect it to go POOF before it can get its act together in the W Carib and then move up here.

If it develops I just can't believe that it would track into Central America either.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 261527
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 10 MPH AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF
THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL BUT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...IF ANY...IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[dtrain44]

It seems the consensus of the board is much the same - and no mention of TD formation this time. I suppose most are thinking Sunday is the make or break day for 90L?

[wxman57]

It seems the consensus of the board is much the same - and no mention of TD formation this time. I suppose most are thinking Sunday is the make or break day for 90L?

That's about it. Check back Sunday and see if 90L is still around. If it is, then maybe there's a chance it could develop.

[Blown Away]

It seems the consensus of the board is much the same - and no mention of TD formation this time. I suppose most are thinking Sunday is the make or break day for 90L?

That's about it. Check back Sunday and see if 90L is still around. If it is, then maybe there's a chance it could develop.

Man, I just can't wait until Sunday. I need some weather action now.

[Evil Jeremy]

Man, that low is moving fast!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html