Almost time for N. Texas/Oklahoma winter wish season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I suspect a month later with a lower sun angle would be more likely to give happy results, but 12Z GFS shows that most happy convergence of 540 dm thickness, precip and 850 mb 0ºC line under the upper low Thursday.


By then, looks like cold air advection at the surface has shut down, which isn't good. GFS MOS about 5ºC at sunrise.


But a boy can dream...maybe some sleet or wet flakes...

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFS keeps the dream alive, sort of.

[Portastorm]

Ed, you're already looking for snow?!?!

Oh, it's going to be fun having you around in the Winter Weather forum later this year when real threats for ice/snow in Texas start to materialize, and we get going on the debate and the model-watching and the infamous 0-degree isotherm on the 850 mb maps and all the rest!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ed, you're already looking for snow?!?!

Oh, it's going to be fun having you around in the Winter Weather forum later this year when real threats for ice/snow in Texas start to materialize, and we get going on the debate and the model-watching and the infamous 0-degree isotherm on the 850 mb maps and all the rest!!

About mid to late November, when we start seeing the 384 hr GFS, the fun will begin!

And that's about the time JB will start making hints about snow and ice threats all the way to I-10 and a Citrus freeze into the Rio Grande Valley around Christmas. Then you, Extremweather Guy, myself and others starting comparing the threats to the 1983 and 1989 freezes and the South Texas snow of 2004 and maybe even the ghost of 1899. Air Force Met will come on here and bring us down to earth.

We have the winter down to a "T" now. Don't we Portastorm?

[vbhoutex]

Ed, you're already looking for snow?!?!

Oh, it's going to be fun having you around in the Winter Weather forum later this year when real threats for ice/snow in Texas start to materialize, and we get going on the debate and the model-watching and the infamous 0-degree isotherm on the 850 mb maps and all the rest!!

About mid to late November, when we start seeing the 384 hr GFS, the fun will begin!

And that's about the time JB will start making hints about snow and ice threats all the way to I-10 and a Citrus freeze into the Rio Grande Valley around Christmas. Then you, Extremweather Guy, myself and others starting comparing the threats to the 1983 and 1989 freezes and the South Texas snow of 2004 and maybe even the ghost of 1899. Air Force Met will come on here and bring us down to earth.

We have the winter down to a "T" now. Don't we Portastorm?

You said it!!! We didn't. Not that I am disagreeing.

[Portastorm]

It's good to know that there are some things in life we can count on ...

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 15 day GFS from early December 2004 correctly predicted the dusting of snow at my house Christmas Eve, 2004.

[Portastorm]

The 15 day GFS from early December 2004 correctly predicted the dusting of snow at my house Christmas Eve, 2004.

Actually we've (Winter Winter forum posters) noticed during past winters that the GFS can sometimes pick up on an idea early in its run ... lose that idea in the middle part of the run ... then regain it late in the run. Sometimes it has indeed verified.

[vbhoutex]

The 15 day GFS from early December 2004 correctly predicted the dusting of snow at my house Christmas Eve, 2004.

Actually we've (Winter Winter forum posters) noticed during past winters that the GFS can sometimes pick up on an idea early in its run ... lose that idea in the middle part of the run ... then regain it late in the run. Sometimes it has indeed verified.

If I remeber correctly it seems to do better with winter storms than it does with the tropics. or so it seems over the last few years.