Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

[RL3AO]

SPC must be having technical issues.

They have good timing.

[CrazyC83]

It is just exploding in the Ohio Valley...60 dewpoints have creeped as far north as northern Ontario now as well...

[snoopj]

Just in case anyone was wondering what MD 2113 was detailing:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 182052Z - 182215Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WW.

BROKEN BAND OF STORMS SEEM TO BE ADVANCING EAST OF INITIATING
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...AIDED BY 30-40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW EMANATING FROM RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...
THE LONGEVITY OF ONGOING STORMS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
BORER INTO WESTERN ALABAMA IS IN QUESTION. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
WEAKENING TRENDS MAY ENSUE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BUT...UNTIL
THIS OCCURS...SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 10/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX...

30648874 31508856 32348817 32938762 33818669 34438604
33158531 32208517 31148542 30508576 30318779

[CrazyC83]

Big time hook echo on the W Kentucky cell...

[tidesong]

SPC finally updated the watches.

[CrazyC83]

Likely tornado just S of Evansville.

[CrazyC83]

Cells also exploding in SW Chicagoland...moving NE...

[HarlequinBoy]

Cells are firing southward into Arkansas.

[Bunkertor]

Back again from cinema. I quit watching the movie...

[CrazyC83]

Look out Chicago!!!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
523 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

ILC031-182300-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-071018T2300Z/
COOK IL-
523 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL COOK COUNTY...

AT 523 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BLUE ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NORTHERLY ISLAND...NAVY PIER AND DOWNTOWN CHICAGO BY 535 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN ALSIP AT 522 PM.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

INC061-182245-
/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071018T2245Z/
HARRISON IN-
626 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR HARRISON
COUNTY...

AT 623 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO STRONGLY
INDICATES A TORNADO WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR CENTRAL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF CORYDON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LANESVILLE...CRANDALL...6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT AND 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BYRNEVILLE BY 640 PM EDT...
9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRADFORD BY 645 PM EDT...

A PUBLIC REPORT OF 80 MPH WAS ESTIMATED NEAR NEW AMSTERDAM AT 626 PM
EDT.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE DAMAGING TORNADO IN DOGWOOD
AND NEW MIDDLETOWN. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE
COVER IMMEDIATELY!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORK BENCH OR
OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE IN A BASEMENT. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY, BATHROOM, OR CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3802 8619 3805 8625 3816 8631 3838 8606
3821 8595 3819 8597 3818 8593 3817 8592
3803 8595 3801 8608
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 222DEG 43KT 3812 8612

$$
JDG

[Bunkertor]

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[snoopj]

Something of interest heading into the Tuscaloosa, Alabama area.

WWUS54 KBMX 182242
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
542 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

ALC125-182315-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0145.000000T0000Z-071018T2315Z/
TUSCALOOSA AL-
542 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY...

AT 542 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
COKER...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTHPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUHL BY 555 PM CDT...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COKER BY 610 PM CDT...
OLIVER LOCK DAM...OLIVER LOCK AND DAM...TUSCALOOSA MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT AND NORTHPORT BY 615 PM CDT...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3332 8771 3333 8756 3320 8744 3312 8757
3306 8771 3306 8774 3308 8776 3320 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 241DEG 14KT 3312 8774

$$

75

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR OH VLY SWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 722...

VALID 182239Z - 182345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 722 CONTINUES.

WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 722...THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE ACROSS EXTREME SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN
IND...NWRN KY AND PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN.

DISCRETE AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE BOTH
ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SRN IL SWD INTO EXTREME SERN MO AND FARTHER E
ALONG SUBTLE CONFLUENCE LINES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...STRADDLING
THE OH/KY BORDER. ONE PARTICULAR SUPERCELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION APPEARS THAT IT WILL APPROACH THE WRN PARTS OF
THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA BY 23Z. UPSTREAM... OTHER SUPERCELLS WILL
MOVE NEWD ALONG THE OH RVR ACROSS SRN IND/NWRN KY. LOUISVILLE VWP
DERIVED HODOGRAPH FOR OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS SHOWS AROUND 175 M2/S2
0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR. NRN EDGE OF
68+ DEG F SFC DEW POINTS WERE MOVING NWD INTO THIS REGION AS
WELL...LOWERING LCLS AND CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TORNADOES.

FARTHER S...RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LIKELY STABILIZED PARTS
OF THE MS AND AL PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH...NAMELY AROUND CBM
AND AREAS SW OF KTCL. ONE PERSISTENT CELL APPROACHING KTCL SHOULD
BEGIN INGESTING THIS COOLER AIR WITH A SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING SOON.

THROUGH MID-EVENING...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT MOVES E OF THE MS RVR AND COULD DEVELOP SWD INTO NWRN
MS/WRN TN. NUMBER OF STORMS DEVELOPING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION
INTO LINEAR BANDS OF STORMS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THUS...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE
TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN TRANSLATION OF THE LLJ MAXIMUM NWD WITH TIME
INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VLY...HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE CONFINED TO NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE WW THROUGH MID-EVENING.

..RACY.. 10/18/2007


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

36928990 38218872 38498533 37398515 35668647 33758746
33158787 33208878 33678993 35269046 36559000

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
INC019-043-KYC111-182315-
/O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0013.071018T2242Z-071018T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
642 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE...
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

* AT 640 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SHIVELY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LOUISVILLE AND NEW ALBANY BY 650 PM EDT...
JEFFERSONVILLE BY 655 PM EDT...
ST. MATTHEWS AND LYNDON BY 700 PM EDT...
PROSPECT AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANCHORAGE BY 705 PM EDT...

THIS STORM ALSO WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORK BENCH OR
OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE IN A BASEMENT. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY, BATHROOM, OR CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY. AVOID WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3816 8591 3823 8596 3825 8596 3826 8598
3829 8600 3842 8573 3828 8545
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 238DEG 37KT 3821 8587

$$

DK

[CrazyC83]

Large warnings in central Illinois, including Champaign and Effingham.

[Pebbles]

Cells also exploding in SW Chicagoland...moving NE...

They are popping right over me!! I am literally couple blocks south of where I355 and I80 meet up on radar.. (just east of joliet)

Snapped pics of first one to go over me as it was going away.. unfortunately trees got in the way of some shots.. and there's another incoming. I so thought we were going to get lucky and these were gonna fire off to our south.

Praying non of these drop anything.. i got 5 kids in my house right now (babysitting and my own).

[CrazyC83]

882
WWCN11 CWTO 182248
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6:48 PM EDT THURSDAY 18 OCTOBER 2007.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO NEAR MIDNIGHT.
TORNADO WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE DAMAGING WINDS OF 90 KM/H OR
GREATER..LARGE HAIL..AND THE SLIGHT RISK OF A TORNADO.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND MAY
ISSUE WARNINGS AT A LATER TIME.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/RODGERS

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN WI...WRN MI U.P.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 723...

VALID 182249Z - 190015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 723 CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STABILIZING AND CIN IS INCREASING DUE TO LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DRYING FROM THE SW. RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT
REMAINS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL/CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE
LOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT IS NOW MARGINAL HAIL OVER NRN AND
NERN PORTIONS OF THE WW AND THE WW MAY BE CANCELED EARLY.

..JEWELL.. 10/18/2007


ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

42688959 43338904 43938884 44468920 45189035 46069219
46739214 46428977 45538716 44028717 42678748 42578797
42608909

[CrazyC83]

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
JEFFERSON...SOUTHERN FLOYD AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 657 PM EDT...RADAR STRONGLY INDICATED A TORNADO IN NORTHERN
LOUISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM WILL MOVE ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER BETWEEN LOUISVILLE AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA. IF YOU
LIVE IN JEFFERSONVILLE...AND DOWNTOWN LOUISVILLE...SEEK SHELTER NOW!