INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[boca]

Its my humble opinion after reading the 8:05 disscusion that 92L will not develop.Its being sheared apart and its moving SE at the upper levels, the low level is moving SW. Just another bust since I wanted beneficial rains to fall in Lake O before its too late.

[Recurve]

And we can't write off anything that's going to wander over the Gulf Steam, I mean Stream. Not me anyway.

Some of the models are bad. Not Mexico again. They're set to have a worse year than Florida in 04.

[cycloneye]

133
WHXX01 KWBC 050035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC FRI OCT 5 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20071005 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071005 0000 071005 1200 071006 0000 071006 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 72.7W 25.4N 74.7W 25.5N 77.1W 25.7N 80.3W
BAMD 25.3N 72.7W 23.8N 74.3W 22.7N 76.1W 21.9N 78.1W
BAMM 25.3N 72.7W 24.8N 74.8W 24.4N 77.1W 24.1N 79.7W
LBAR 25.3N 72.7W 24.7N 73.9W 24.3N 75.5W 24.0N 77.5W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071007 0000 071008 0000 071009 0000 071010 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.6N 83.0W 25.1N 88.3W 23.7N 92.7W 20.7N 95.4W
BAMD 21.6N 79.7W 21.8N 82.3W 22.8N 85.0W 23.5N 87.3W
BAMM 24.1N 81.8W 23.8N 85.6W 23.8N 89.1W 22.9N 92.5W
LBAR 23.9N 79.6W 24.0N 83.5W 24.8N 87.1W 25.4N 90.4W
SHIP 43KTS 60KTS 70KTS 72KTS
DSHP 43KTS 60KTS 70KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 72.7W DIRCUR = 190DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 25.8N LONM12 = 72.6W DIRM12 = 187DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 26.5N LONM24 = 72.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[BigA]

Methinks 92L might have a better chance once it gets into the Western Caribbean or Gulf. Too much wind shear right now, but it may be less in a couple of days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... hour=072hr NOGAPS 72 HR Shear map

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=060hr GFS 60 hour shear maps.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... ur=072hr72 hour shear map.

I'm not terribly confident that these lighter shear predictions will verify. They seem to have been forecasted every time for every system, and the systems still got sheared to death. (at least since Humberto)

I'm thinking that if anything important comes from the rest of the season, it will be one of those western caribbean storms that moves into the gulf and gets pushed eastward, a la Irene in 99.

[BigA]

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif AVN 72 hour shear map.

I don't put as much faith in these shear maps as I used to, but it looks like if something wants to form in the Caribbean or Gulf, 72 hours from now would be a good time for it.

['CaneFreak]

Let me just save everyone the frustration. Its finished. LOL and now...back to the nothingness in the Atlantic....thats for letting me get that off my shoulders....NEXT!

[wobblehead]

Other than producing the freak Humberto the Gulf just hasn't been conducive to tropical development. Based on this I don't see 92L developing/strengthening in the Gulf.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT an OFFICIAL FORECAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Under a building ridge 92L will get into more favorable conditions
as it moves SSW. Look at a loop and see the shear getting
less as the clouds get torn less.

92L was initialized with a futile center. The Real
action will be over the high heat content of the caribbean.

And if it is JUST SW of CUBA, the trough/front system being
powerful WILL pull it NORTH like it did with Wilma.

But there is a small chance that it could continue west,
but that is extremely doubtful considering the
strength of the trough.

I still expect 92L once it gets into the Caribbean
to become a significant hurricane.

Initially SSW as models early may underestimate the current ridge...
but that trough comes in strong.

[Extremeweatherguy]

***NOT an OFFICIAL FORECAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Under a building ridge 92L will get into more favorable conditions
as it moves SSW. Look at a loop and see the shear getting
less as the clouds get torn less.

92L was initialized with a futile center. The Real
action will be over the high heat content of the caribbean.

And if it is JUST SW of CUBA, the trough/front system being
powerful WILL pull it NORTH like it did with Wilma.

But there is a small chance that it could continue west,
but that is extremely doubtful considering the
strength of the trough.

I still expect 92L once it gets into the Caribbean
to become a significant hurricane.

Initially SSW as models early may underestimate the current ridge...
but that trough comes in strong.

"the strength of the trough"? I do not know what you are seeing, but the trough coming down mid next week will not even be close to the magnitude of the trough that picked of Wilma. No offense, but I don't think this: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif puny, little trough (which may end up arriving too late anyways) can be compared to this one: http://www.wunderground.com/education/s ... ONNITE.gif .

There is just no comparison between the two. Wilma's trough wins hands down.

[BigA]

Let me just save everyone the frustration. Its finished. LOL and now...back to the nothingness in the Atlantic....thats for letting me get that off my shoulders....NEXT!

At some point there wont be a next. That said, I dont think we are at that point yet. I think that whatever happens, if anything, will come from the Western Caribbean.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT an OFFICIAL FORECAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Under a building ridge 92L will get into more favorable conditions
as it moves SSW. Look at a loop and see the shear getting
less as the clouds get torn less.

92L was initialized with a futile center. The Real
action will be over the high heat content of the caribbean.

And if it is JUST SW of CUBA, the trough/front system being
powerful WILL pull it NORTH like it did with Wilma.

But there is a small chance that it could continue west,
but that is extremely doubtful considering the
strength of the trough.

I still expect 92L once it gets into the Caribbean
to become a significant hurricane.

Initially SSW as models early may underestimate the current ridge...
but that trough comes in strong.

"the strength of the trough"? I do not know what you are seeing, but the trough coming down mid next week will not even be close to the magnitude of the trough that picked of Wilma. No offense, but I don't think this: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif puny, little trough (which may end up arriving too late anyways) can be compared to this one: http://www.wunderground.com/education/s ... ONNITE.gif .

There is just no comparison between the two. Wilma's trough wins hands down.

In that case there is a greater possibility of it going West...but if that front
makes it far south with southerly flow it would turn NE towards the GOM

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...GFS HAS AGAIN DONE SOME
SHIFTING WITH REGARD TO LONG TERM PATTERN. EARLY IN THE LONG
TERM...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH TO
PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WITH ITS INCREASED MOISTURE AND
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY.
06Z GFS BACKED OFF THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON MONDAY AND
INSTEAD KEPT A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOW THE 12Z RUN APPEARS DRIER
AGAIN...AND KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH. BETTER
CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS GFS DGEX AND ECMWF ALL
DEPICT A LARGE CUTOFF TROUGH SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A LONG WAVE
TROF AXIS TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=1&max=61

Also this goes with climatology.

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ROUGHLY ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ANY INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[wxman57]

I told you not to look at it until late Saturday or more likely on Sunday. It won't do much until then (if it ever does). Nothing to see for another couple of days. It'll look like crap due to moderate shear until that shear drops off Sunday. And upper-level winds don't get too great for development until Monday or Tuesday. It's only Thursday.

[eaglegirl]

I told you not to look at it until late Saturday or more likely on Sunday. It won't do much until then (if it ever does). Nothing to see for another couple of days. It'll look like crap due to moderate shear until that shear drops off Sunday. And upper-level winds don't get too great for development until Monday or Tuesday. It's only Thursday.

Thank you for your post. From what I understood, development was not to occur immediately. I have not been able to figure out why so many appear to be writing this off. That said, I am grateful for your clarification... I thought I was going crazy.

[cycloneye]

00z NAM at 84 Hours

00z NAM Loop

The 00z NAM at the end of the run has a 996 mb storm in the Central Gulf.

[Stormcenter]

***NOT an OFFICIAL FORECAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Under a building ridge 92L will get into more favorable conditions
as it moves SSW. Look at a loop and see the shear getting
less as the clouds get torn less.

92L was initialized with a futile center. The Real
action will be over the high heat content of the caribbean.

And if it is JUST SW of CUBA, the trough/front system being
powerful WILL pull it NORTH like it did with Wilma.

But there is a small chance that it could continue west,
but that is extremely doubtful considering the
strength of the trough.

I still expect 92L once it gets into the Caribbean
to become a significant hurricane.

Initially SSW as models early may underestimate the current ridge...
but that trough comes in strong.

"the strength of the trough"? I do not know what you are seeing, but the trough coming down mid next week will not even be close to the magnitude of the trough that picked of Wilma. No offense, but I don't think this: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif puny, little trough (which may end up arriving too late anyways) can be compared to this one: http://www.wunderground.com/education/s ... ONNITE.gif .

There is just no comparison between the two. Wilma's trough wins hands down.

Well I'm not so sure about that (trough strength)per the NWS out of N.O.
It sounds pretty strong to me.

AS THE LOW PULLS INTO MEXICO...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES INTO TEXAS...STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CAP OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION. HAVE
PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DUE TO
THE FACT THAT SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...NORTHERLY FLOW...AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
BUILD OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
BEHIND THE FRONT.

[flwxwatcher]

18Z DGEX sends this to the Western Gulf then it sends it back towards South Florida later next week. Of course this is the DGEX so take it for what its worth.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpl ... day.conus/

[MiamiensisWx]

It's time for Bones' speech!



Sorry, wxman57. I'll give you credit for the image.

I think attention should shift toward the Caribbean, in my opinion.

['CaneFreak]

It's time for Bones' speech!



Sorry, wxman57. I'll give you credit for the image.

I think attention should shift toward the Caribbean, in my opinion.

CARRIBEAN? What is this crap? Does anyone pay a visit to the water vapor loops? Sorry but the Carribean is getting ready to get rolled up with an upper level low and it is going to go ahead and shut down the season like the 18Z GFS was showing. Take a look for yourself. There is an upper level low headed from ne to sw and it is making a beeline for the Carribean. If you dont believe me, ask me I think Bones can get ready for his season closing speech. This is terrible. Sorry folks.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

['CaneFreak]

I was giving this a prayer last night, but tonight I am facing the facts. The facts are: there are too many upper level lows making there way across the Atlantic Basin for anything on earth to get going and this is just it. Not only that, but the upper level shear will likely not decrease until Jan or Feb because when you switch straight from an El Nino to a La Nina you need to be prepared for several months of slow activity before the actual favorable conditions make their way across the Atlantic. I mean..lets look at 1998...the ENSO didnt go cool until late in the year...and then BOOOOOM....THE ATLANTIC EXPLODED later in 1999 once the La Nina had some time to settle in. This year, we JUST reached the official thresholds for a La Nina and everyone (including myself) was expecting a knockout year and what happened? In terms of ACE, its been a slow year. Sorry. This is OT. Fire me. But, as you see, I am giving my own explanation of why this year is going to go down as one of the lowest ACE years since 1994 or whatever that stat was. I didnt just say...oh well...yawn....the season is over...see ya'll next year...