INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Derek Ortt]

SHEAR HAS NOT DOMINATED ALL SEASON. Posts (like some in this thread) that state that shear ahs been dominant are incredibly frustrating to read as they convey utter misinformation

[eaglegirl]

... JB is whole subject on his own and is a lightning rod here I think because of the reverence that some pay him; like he is a genie and knows all. He is wrong like most Pro's and proabably as consistently as other Pro Mets are apt to be in this imperfect, unpredictable science.

I watched JB's videos this morning... which were somewhat amusing because he was doing Arnold Swartzenger (sp?) and Monty Python impressions.

However, I don't watch his videos enough to get a good handle on what he thinks will or will not happen.

That being said, my take on his thoughts regarding this area was that eventual development will come from this area. If not the system that we are currently watching, then from (ex) Karen when she moves into this area.

He said that he would not be doing Big Dog or Long Ranger Videos tomorrow... but, he will write something for later today.

(edited to add quote)

[Ed Mahmoud]

As a great fan of climo, I'd also like to note the curve that they show all the time on TWC (I'm sure somebody can find it) shows a small secondary spike of activity in October.

Gulf storms not uncommon in October. Lili, Opal, Wilma, Mitch (once done doing so much destruction in Central America).

Only thing I've ever pointed out is Texas is relatively safe in October. JB says continental pressures rising in relation to ocean, I always figured it was the fact that the mean jet position is shifting futher Southward so anything getting as far North as Texas will be getting pushed Eastward by the Westerlies.


Other than having a fairly good idea where this probably won't go, if it even develops, I have no clue where this will go.

Edit to add chart with secondary October peak...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I watched JB's videos this morning... which were somewhat amusing because he was doing Arnold Swartzenger (sp?) and Monty Python impressions.

However, I don't watch his videos enough to get a good handle on what he thinks will or will not happen.

That being said, my take on his thoughts regarding this area was that eventual development will come from this area. If not the system that we are currently watching, then from (ex) Karen when she moves into this area.

He said that he would not be doing Big Dog or Long Ranger Videos tomorrow... but, he will write something for later today.

And drunken Ted Kennedy impressions...

[tailgater]

Some sort of trough in the NW Caribbean showing up on the Visible loop, low cloulds west of the Caymans drifting south, and south of the Caymans drifting N, east and north of Caymans southeasterly trade winds.

[hurricanetrack]

But it has dominated after Felix. Examples:

Gebrielle
Ingrid
Karen
Melissa
91L
92L presently
others???

[x-y-no]

12z CMC



For those who always like to see the CMC runs,above is the 12z run.Last night it had a cat 4 moving thru the GOM.What it has today,find out at link.

Well that's quite the northern outlier, isn't it? Significantly weaker with the ridging than the other globals.

[Derek Ortt]

that CMC run would only come close to verifying if this were 12Z August 21, 1992

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A BROAD 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N73W...MOVING SLOWLY SW. THIS AFTERNOONS VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS MORE THAN ONE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE
VICINITY...SO HAVE OPTED WITH A MEAN CENTER FOR THE 12 AND 1500
UTC MAPS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY S/SE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DUE TO UPPER NLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE
DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOST
CONCENTRATED FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 64W-74W. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[DESTRUCTION5]

that CMC run would only come close to verifying if this were 12Z August 21, 1992

LOL..Good Comparison!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2 PM TWD:

A BROAD 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N73W...MOVING SLOWLY SW. THIS AFTERNOONS VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS MORE THAN ONE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE
VICINITY...SO HAVE OPTED WITH A MEAN CENTER FOR THE 12 AND 1500
UTC MAPS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY S/SE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DUE TO UPPER NLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE
DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOST
CONCENTRATED FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 64W-74W. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

Yup SW motion until the Caribbean where it spends 3-4 days IMO.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL Animation

The 12z GFDL has a 982mb 73kt hurricane at end of run.

[fci]

12z CMC



For those who always like to see the CMC runs,above is the 12z run.Last night it had a cat 4 moving thru the GOM.What it has today,find out at link.

Oh, the CMC makes for such great entertainment.
Like I have said several times before, we are still recovering from the 8/23 Hurricane CMC had coming here for a solid week!

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

BOC.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 041813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC THU OCT 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20071004 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071004 1800 071005 0600 071005 1800 071006 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.5N 72.6W 25.4N 74.0W 25.4N 76.2W 25.2N 79.1W
BAMD 25.5N 72.6W 24.2N 73.9W 23.2N 75.5W 22.5N 77.2W
BAMM 25.5N 72.6W 24.7N 74.3W 23.9N 76.3W 23.2N 78.6W
LBAR 25.5N 72.6W 24.5N 73.5W 23.8N 74.8W 23.3N 76.6W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071006 1800 071007 1800 071008 1800 071009 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 82.0W 24.6N 87.3W 24.0N 91.9W 21.7N 95.5W
BAMD 22.3N 78.9W 22.5N 81.8W 23.2N 85.6W 24.1N 88.9W
BAMM 22.7N 80.7W 21.8N 84.2W 21.7N 87.8W 22.0N 91.3W
LBAR 22.9N 78.7W 22.7N 82.9W 23.8N 87.1W 24.7N 91.3W
SHIP 39KTS 55KTS 62KTS 63KTS
DSHP 32KTS 44KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.5N LONCUR = 72.6W DIRCUR = 185DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 72.5W DIRM12 = 187DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 27.6N LONM24 = 72.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Moving SSW.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Looks like the NOAA G-IV flight for this afternoon/evening was cancelled, and another scheduled for tomorrow at the same time...

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... mid=&size=

[Derek Ortt]

P3 flight, not G-IV

[hurricanetrack]

If the CMC is going to be right, then this system needs to get going now.

Also, I wonder what the people who run the Canadian model think about all of the poo that we throw at it? Poor CMC admins.

[wxman57]

If the CMC is going to be right, then this system needs to get going now.

Also, I wonder what the people who run the Canadian model think about all of the poo that we throw at it? Poor CMC admins.

They didn't design the model to be a tropical model. It develops every upper-level feature into a hurricane. Maybe it works well in Canada, but it shouldn't be used in the tropics.