INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[wxman57]

For sure the title will have to be edited,but I prefer to wait for information from where the models iniciate their runs as well what NHC says in the TWOS.

Just curious - what models are you waiting for? The only models not run lately are the BAMs. The BAM models are useless in a dynamic situation (generally north of 15-20N where the environment is changing). So the BAM models shouldn't carry much weight. And the SHIP/DSHP intensity guidance is based upon the BAMM track, so if the BAMM track is out to lunch then the intensity guidance is bad, too.

The GFDL is trending south, and it's had a strong right bias all year. GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS are in good agreement on development in the NW Caribbean, slow movement across the northern Yucatan into the NE BoC then death over the Yucatan or southern MX. Canadian now has a major hurricane hitting the mid LA coast (ridge? what ridge?). Clearly, the disturbance is following the GFS solution of a track into the NW Caribbean as high pressure builds to its northwest. It's not moving through the FL Straits.

[wxman57]

The low is clearly east of the Bahamas at 26n 71w.
The convection is displaced to the south.
Give it time to develop, I still think it will move W or WSW.

Just remember that the center will follow the convection, not the other way around.

[Stormcenter]

This is what I think about 92L....yawn.
92L "may" turn out to be another dud invest
of the 2007 season. At least with 90L most everyone
thought it wouldn't amount to much if anything.
Oh well I guess we should still keep an eye on it just
in case.

[canes04]

The low is clearly east of the Bahamas at 26n 71w.
The convection is displaced to the south.
Give it time to develop, I still think it will move W or WSW.

Just remember that the center will follow the convection, not the other way around.

You may be right wxman, I believe we will see convection build aroung the center later
today and tomorrow once the mid & upper level winds relax.
Just giving my amateur opinion.

[boca]

I knew wxman you would be able to do your bike ride because deep down I thought this would be a continuation of 90L and 91L. If it does develop its Mexico bound like everything else this season.

[Normandy]

Take a good look at the morning visible shots off the southern coasts of Cuba. I see low cloud motions starting to turn S and SW just N of the Cayman Islands.....Think a low might be trying to form down there folks.....I say the focus for development is in the Caribbean now.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I also noted that earlier in another post that something is happening betoween Cuba and Jamaica...

[Sanibel]

Guess the swirl up by 28N yesterday was a vortex after all. Strange.

I always thought the convection follows the surface feature or center myself.

[alienstorm]

There is to much wind shear, according to CIMSS the wind shear is increasing, the only area of decreasing shear at this time is over the Fla Straits and northern cuba.

Don't expect this to develop in the Bahamas, it should develop south of Cuba in the Carribbean, some what similiar to Wilma genesis. The weather moved south from the bahamas and started orginanizing south of Jamica.

[cycloneye]

There is no real consensus from the models as you can see in the spagetti tracks.Until a true center is established and the gulfstream jet goes to collect upper air data to feed the models,this lack of consensus will continue.

[mvtrucking]

Just remember that the models initialize 92L with a vortex that has 25-30 kt winds already. But it won't likely have such a vortex for another 48-72 hours. It's just an area of thunderstorms today. Watch for a spin up in the NW Caribbean or Yucatan Channel Saturday afternoon.

Wxman57,
What is your take on this system, size, track, intensity, etc? Thanks.

[Evil Jeremy]

any chances of this pulling a Wilma on us when it nears the Yucatan?

[tolakram]

Why are you tired of hearing about climo?

It is what USUALLY happens unless unusual circumstances present themselves.

What the models and Pros are saying about 92L IS unusual.
But it is certainly valid to keep bringing up "Climo" as it is wholly justifiable.

Not when it's used blindly. Climatology says Cincinnati should be 74 degrees today and we should have already had a few strong cold fronts moved through. Instead we are heading for a high of 87 with no strong cold fronts yet. It feels like the end of August here, not the beginning of October.

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure what we are seeing with 92L. That weak vortex looping SW east of Florida could possibly be the spent LLC of a stripped system that had its convection stripped off and lost the LLC to synoptic shear. I don't see any other center froming in what looks like a sheared boundary cloud bank.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 23.5N 75.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 06/0200Z
D. 23.0N 76.5W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
6. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z ON THIS AREA
CANCELLED AT 04/1130Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

The missions for this afternoon and overnight where canceled.Lets see what happens tommorow if they go or not.

[wxman57]

Guess the swirl up by 28N yesterday was a vortex after all. Strange.

I always thought the convection follows the surface feature or center myself.

Convection is what generates the inflow. Inflow with proper exhaust (ridge overhead) allows for lowering pressure. Lowering pressure gets the LLC going. Thus, the low will follow or reform beneath the convection.

Which reminds me. I had a very strange dream last night. I dreamed I was a muffler. Woke up exhausted.

[wxman57]

Just remember that the models initialize 92L with a vortex that has 25-30 kt winds already. But it won't likely have such a vortex for another 48-72 hours. It's just an area of thunderstorms today. Watch for a spin up in the NW Caribbean or Yucatan Channel Saturday afternoon.

Wxman57,
What is your take on this system, size, track, intensity, etc? Thanks.

I like the GFS and Euro tracks to the Yucatan Channel Sunday then west to the northern BoC/SW Gulf by late Monday/Tuesday. At that point, upper level winds are forecast to be quite favorable for intensification. It may pull a Roxanne ('95) and drift around a bit before moving inland into Mexico. Low chance of it pulling an Opal ('95) for now. I doubt there will be a need for recon until Saturday afternoon at the earliest. So don't waste too much time swirl-chasing the next few days. Follow where the convection is moving.

[cycloneye]

From Dr Jeff Masters Blog:

Disturbance 92L northeast of the Bahamas
Of greater concern is an area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough of low pressure (92L) near 26N 73W, just northeast of the Bahama Islands. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed a 200-mile long southeast-northwest oriented zone of converging winds just northeast of the Bahamas, but no surface circulation. Satellite loops show a large area of disorganized thunderstorm activity that is not getting better organized. This disturbance is under about 15-30 knots of wind shear, and development today will be very slow. Wind shear is expected to fall to 10-15 knots beginning Friday afternoon, which may allow 92L to develop into a tropical depression as early as Saturday. The computer models expect a strong ridge of high pressure will force 92L slowly west-southwest over the Bahamas Friday and Saturday, then over the Florida Keys and western Cuba Saturday and Sunday. The storm will probably bring heavy rains to the western Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys beginning on Saturday. By Monday and Tuesday, the system is expected to be over the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL and SHIPS models predict 92L will be a strong tropical storm with 55-65 mph winds on Tuesday. With an upper-level anticyclone with light wind shear expected to set up over the disturbance, the potential exists for a hurricane to form--if 92L can avoid the Yucatan.

The long term fate of the storm is highly uncertain. The GFS model predicts the ridge of high pressure ridge forcing it west will intensify, pushing 92L southwestward into Mexico. There is, however, a strong trough of low pressure expected to swing across the central U.S. next week and become a cut-off low. This system may be able to swing 92L northwards into the U.S. Gulf Coast, as the Canadian model is predicting. The Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon, but this flight was canceled and has been rescheduled for Friday afternoon.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710

[Cyclenall]

Reason for recon cancel? At least get some data on this even if it's just a blob of thunderstorms right now.