INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Extremeweatherguy]

Front looks like it will not even reach SE Texas in this run (or if it does it will be weaker and slower). Seems to me as if it will be staying north of the region.

You can compare below...

18z run (Mon. morning) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108m.gif

00z run (Mon. morning) - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102m.gif

[ROCK]

Derek was right..... HUGE and spread out.....

[Recurve]

Cycloneye, the models show a pretty week system for most of the runs?

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, the models show a pretty week system for most of the runs?

Intensity does not matter to much in the runs (Remember GFS had Felix at 1008 mbs while Felix was a cat 5).The Track is more important.

[americanrebel]

I hope the runs are right about the pressure staying around 1004, but I think it might follow the path but the pressure might be 100 points lower than that at the end of the run.

['CaneFreak]

Cycloneye, the models show a pretty week system for most of the runs?

Thats a resolution error Recurve...dont look at intensity on the globals. Resolution is not good enough for you to see clearly what the actual intensity might be.

[americanrebel]

But one thing the models does show is a system that cover almost all of the GOM in 4-5 days, that is very impressive. I'm might be worried in a few days if this model proves correct.

[Recurve]

Cycloneye, the models show a pretty week system for most of the runs?

Intensity does not matter to much in the runs (Remember GFS had Felix at 1008 mbs while Felix was a cat 5).The Track is more important.

Oh, too bad. Thanks though. I should know GFS isn't for intensity. I'd rather it stay a 1004 low.

Wonder if the pressure's that strong to send it down in the Caribbean, or it's going to form further south.

[cycloneye]

Hello BOC.

['CaneFreak]

Hello BOC.

And that's the REST of the story....LOL...

[srainhoutx]

wxman57 strikes again.

[Derek Ortt]

shakes head at saying 2007 season has been all bark and no bite

if we ever have a 1997... I will leave the board as the harping about a quiet season will be even worse than it currently is

[ROCK]

back sw over the yucatan......huh??

[Recurve]

So this system is starting to get its organization together.

Not really. IMHO.

And this season has already had too much action even for just watching from afar at the keyboard -- two Cat 5 landfalls. Jeepers!

[cycloneye]

I am sorry,but this 00z run trackwise is not credible after it gets into the SE GOM.It does all kinds of moves.

[americanrebel]

cycloneye, I was thinking the same thing.

[ROCK]

I am sorry,but this 00z run trackwise is not credible after it gets into the SE GOM.It does all kinds of moves.

all over the place....I have seen some strange things this year but if that verifies then that tops them all.......

[cycloneye]

This post will be for the 00z run of GFS in all the timeframes.

00z GFS at 18 Hours

00z GFS at 30 Hours

00z GFS at 48 Hours Getting Close to Northern Cuba coast

00z GFS at 54 Hours Still north of Cubas coast

00z GFS at 72 Hours Over Cuba

00z GFS at 90 Hours In NW Caribbean

00z GFS at 102 Hours Yucatan Channel

00z GFS at 114 Hours Moving Slowly in SE GOM

00z GFS at 132 Hours Almost Stationary just north of Yucatan.

00z GFS at 144 Hours Enters BOC

00z GFS at 156 Hours Buried in center of BOC

00z GFS at 168 Hours Moves eastward and is inland in Yucatan

I didnt post more of the run as it does all kinds of things after 144 hours.

[hurricanetrack]

Again too with the multi-lows every now and then. The 18Z did not have that problem nearly as much....just a thought.

[Stormcenter]

The run speaks for itself. Now when is that front suppose to make it down south again?
I think my local met said sometime in the middle of next week maybe.