INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[ROCK]

Seems to be becoming better organized (convection-wise).

very much so....if it sticks we could have TD by tomorrow.....IMO, I think it will....

[Sean in New Orleans]

Either way, Texas has little to no concern with this system, unless it were to strike S. of Galveston. The system will provide all of it's fireworks in Louisiana. Now, if it were to come ashore in SE Louisiana, then all of the fireworks clearly would be in MS and AL. Certainly, if I were in Texas I would have no concern, whatsoever, with this system, other than having fun watching it in the GOM. This late in the season, all weather will be to the East...just a small amount of very strong convection around the center and, as stated, 15 or 20 miles to the W of the center and you could see sunshine.

[americanrebel]

Looks like it will be a small TS/STS when it makes landfall in between Cameron and New Orleans.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Buoys and ships show it has a closed LLC with convection increasing over it...One buoy shows 25 knot winds. So it is a depression I would say.

[ROCK]

Buoys and ships show it has a closed LLC with convection increasing over it...One buoy shows 25 knot winds. So it is a depression I would say.

thanks Matt for throwing me under the bus...... I was thinking tomorrow am.....you might be right.....

[rockyman]

Pressure down to 1004...here's the IR2 loop (click on NWS fronts)...easier to track the center at night:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[americanrebel]

So if I understand this correctly it is starting to strengthen.

I was wondering where are the new TWOs and TWDs?

When are the latest models for this system coming out?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Depression-a tropical low pressure area with a closed wind field. With at least one closed millibar around it. Also pressure at one of the buoys is near 1006-1007 millibars maybe lower at the core. As the convection increases this could go to 30 knots in small places, but it will take time to make the overall wind field be that strong. So maybe by 6 hours from now we will have a 30 knot depression...I think it could become a tropical storm by afternoon tomarrow if convection keeps building.

As poster above posted the pressure is now 1004 mililbars.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Pressure down to 1004...here's the IR2 loop (click on NWS fronts)...easier to track the center at night:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

OK, maybe NW to NNW, instead of NNW to N, so I'd guess Cocodrie to Biloxi.

[americanrebel]

The furtherest East it will make landfall is the mouth of the Mississippi River (Venice, La.) probably further West of there around Vermillion Bay.

[srainhoutx]

Snipet from New Orleans AFD this afternoon...

FXUS64 KLIX 032029
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2007

.SHORT TERM...
THE NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPOSED WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR IT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
TURN MORE WEST NORTHWEST OVER NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS TO BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY SINCE
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND THE RESULTING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG.

.LONG TERM...
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TX AND LA BORDER
ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS IN RESPONSE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CO ROCKIES.
THIS WILL BRING THE GULF COAST REGION UNDER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
EAST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE GULF STATES BY TUESDAY
AND MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/get ... n=0&max=11

[Ed Mahmoud]

Relevant paragraph of TWOAT

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS
MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cut and paste, the convecton activity is increasing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Cut and paste, the convecton activity is increasing.

never really decreased. naked swirl at 27ºN still heading West, but the big show, IMHO, will be down around 25ºN.

Ooooops, wrong thread.


Edit to add "Oooooops...

[ROCK]

Pressure down to 1004...here's the IR2 loop (click on NWS fronts)...easier to track the center at night:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

OK, maybe NW to NNW, instead of NNW to N, so I'd guess Cocodrie to Biloxi.

thats not Mobile.....


The center is moving almost due west attm.....with convection to the N and NW of the center.......

[windlyweathergirl]

again this one will be Lucky to get a name.

[americanrebel]

windly where do you get your info out of your A__? All the pros are saying that the likely hood of this becoming a TS is favorable right before landfall.

Sorry to the Mods if this was a little rude.

[Sanibel]

Looping turn west.

[TSmith274]

I'm actually at my camp in Buras, La. (near mouth of Miss R) as I type this. We had a little shower a while ago, but other than that... just a little breeze out of the ESE. Some smaller gusts, but it feels great. Just spread some lawn seed to get my lawn back... from Katrina, believe it or not. I need some rain to get this stuff to grow.

How much rain can we expect with this sytem?

[Wx_Warrior]

My brother is a pro met and hasn't mentioned it becoming a TS before landfall.