INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

['CaneFreak]

I agree Derek...as for Tampa Bay Hurricane...its ok dude...but I still dont see what your seeing...I see winds in the upper levels blowing clouds to the south but its not SHEAR...shear is defined as a difference in winds at different respective levels in the atmosphere...UL winds are totally different than shear winds....get it straight...

Oh thanks...learned something new...Upper Level winds are distinct from shear then if
that is the definition. And so then it is not shear but upper level winds...Now I get it...
For some reason I interpreted upper level winds as shear...OOOPS.

no problem...nope....UL winds are COMPLETELY DIFFERENT...look it up in your little dictionary...

[americanrebel]

Once again, I was just wondering what kind of intensity will this system be in a few days if it continues on its W, WSW path.

Would this storm possibly equivelant to a Super Typhoon in the WPAC?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'd look for a system with a fairly low pressure, but with winds much lower than the pressure would tend to indicate. Based upon the model solutions, it may take 970-965mb to produce hurricane force winds from this thing

Because of it being a larger system the pressure gradient is not as tight then if it were a smaller
system...this is going to be very interesting...

[americanrebel]

So if this system because a major storm, the pressure could be in the upper 800s???

[Vortex]

Derek,
When do you expect this to begin steady intensification?

Also, what scenarios do you see playing out as possible solutions?

['CaneFreak]

Derek, isnt it the other way around...i mean...background pressures are quite high...not sure what you meant there...just confused...can you help me out?

[Vortex]

i think he's saying given the large wind field it will take a lower pressure for higher winds

Typical..
980 80Kts

This storm..
970ish 80kts

[Vortex]

Does anyone have a link to a 5 day loop over the western atlantic?

[Stormcenter]

I refuse to get on the "92L Hype train". I just have to see it (a major Oct. cane in the GOM) to believe it. I think even the NHC sounds like they are backing off some. Just my 2 cents.

[Derek Ortt]

I think for this to support cat 3 winds, it is going to need pressures in the 930s or maybe even 920s if this is spread out enough (think Rita, 937 yet no cat 3 winds were recorded by surface obs or aircraft... by all 4 of them investigating a few hours prior to landfall... 2 NOAA, 1 navy, and 1 AF)

[americanrebel]

So this could be a cross of Rita and Katrina?

[MiamiensisWx]

I think this system is facing some hurdles. Currently, there is strong UL divergence just N of the convection. Additionally, the Bahamian anticyclone appears to have been weakening over the past several hours. You can see the broad upper low to the W + passing s/w over the interior Southeast. See WV imagery. The anticyclonic flow undercutting/displacing the convection + higher shear to the N (seen in satellite and CIMSS) = very slow development. You need a defined LLC; that formative process will not occur rapidly under these conditions. A weakening anticyclone would indicate higher shear values over the next several hours - there is no convection directly under the anticyclone, too.

Stormcenter, no one said this system would be an intense hurricane.

[americanrebel]

Miami, look at the Caribbean WV loop and you will actually see that this system is already to get better formed to the East of the Bahamas and will do just find forming.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

Low forms by morning..6hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif
12 hrs

[JTD]

This is a 0Z run so the data should be very interesting. I've read before that the 12z and 0z runs are often the most reliable.

[Stormcenter]

I think this system is facing some hurdles. Currently, there is strong UL divergence just N of the convection. Additionally, the Bahamian anticyclone appears to have been weakening over the past several hours. You can see the broad upper low to the W + passing s/w over the interior Southeast. See WV imagery. The anticyclonic flow undercutting/displacing the convection + higher shear to the N (seen in satellite and CIMSS) = very slow development. You need a defined LLC; that formative process will not occur rapidly under these conditions. A weakening anticyclone would indicate higher shear values over the next several hours - there is no convection directly under the anticyclone, too.

Stormcenter, no one said this system would be an intense hurricane.

Well actually that is not true because the "possibility" has been mentioned
if it were to make it into the GOM. I was just stating that I don't think that will
happen. Now if it does then I would be surprised.

['CaneFreak]

I think this system is facing some hurdles. Currently, there is strong UL divergence just N of the convection. Additionally, the Bahamian anticyclone appears to have been weakening over the past several hours. You can see the broad upper low to the W + passing s/w over the interior Southeast. See WV imagery. The anticyclonic flow undercutting/displacing the convection + higher shear to the N (seen in satellite and CIMSS) = very slow development. You need a defined LLC; that formative process will not occur rapidly under these conditions. A weakening anticyclone would indicate higher shear values over the next several hours - there is no convection directly under the anticyclone, too.

Stormcenter, no one said this system would be an intense hurricane.

Well actually that is not true because the "possibility" has been mentioned
if it were to make it into the GOM. I was just stating that I don't think that will
happen. Now if it does then I would be surprised.

Well we are glad you think that and all stormcenter...but WHY? just curious...people need to start backing up their statements with facts not just a lame, "just my 2 cents"?!

[cycloneye]

This post will be for the 00z run of GFS in all the timeframes.

00z GFS at 18 Hours

00z GFS at 30 Hours

00z GFS at 48 Hours Getting Close to Northern Cuba coast

00z GFS at 54 Hours Still north of Cubas coast

00z GFS at 72 Hours Over Cuba

00z GFS at 90 Hours In NW Caribbean

00z GFS at 102 Hours Yucatan Channel

00z GFS at 114 Hours Moving Slowly in SE GOM

00z GFS at 132 Hours Almost Stationary just north of Yucatan.

00z GFS at 144 Hours Enters BOC

00z GFS at 156 Hours Buried in center of BOC

00z GFS at 168 Hours Moves eastward and is inland in Yucatan

[MiamiensisWx]

Well actually that is not true because the "possibility" has been mentioned
if it were to make it into the GOM. I was just stating that I don't think that will
happen. Now if it does then I would be surprised.

I think you're technically incorrect (bold). You should read my statement in a careful manner. "Possibility" is much different than "eventuality". No one said this system will intensify to a hurricane. You can find the definitions in the dictionary. Do you think we are "-removed-"? If that is the case, please do not interpret several valid points as "-removed-", since it has bothered you in previous posts. We can take this discussion to PM, since I would appreciate your statement's reasons. I do appreciate your thoughts.

I just do not want another OT -removed- debate affecting good meteorological analyses here. It divides the board, in my opinion.

-Miami

[windlyweathergirl]

There hasn't been much activity in this area climatologically in October.