Emmett_Brown wrote:I'm not at all confident on the movement of this one. Forecasting late season storms is particularly difficult because of trough interactions, and the fact that ridges and troughs begin to move more quickly.
Here is my take, in case anyone cares:
1. If we at the early period, say 72 hours, there is less modle agreement. Tracks are not in good agreement, with the Nogaps jogging NE, the GFDL and the GFS heading SSE for a time, and the Bams heading just S of W. Thats all over the compass. The rule of thumb here might be little movement at all for the first 72 hours... I predict W perhaps more slowly than indicated... into the straits by the weekend.
2. If this happens, the future track is even more uncertain. Given that a front will be on the way per GFS at about 120 hours, a more NW and then N motion might ensue. This could take the storm across the Keys, then N or NE toward the FL Panhandle, or Big Bend.
Just my opinion. Basically i think W then recurve N then NE by the front in 120 hours. E gulf storm IMO.
I agree totally, no farther than 85W IMO.
