INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Cyclone1]

The GFS sure goes nutsy coocoo with 92L...

[Blown Away]

I can't find an October track that even resembles the GFS. This is a classic set up for FL, I think the models are moving 92L to fast to the W and the trough will interact with 92L long before it makes it to the Yucatan. The early Ocotber setup is similiar to a late September setup given the La Nina, per pro's on this site. My climatology based prediction is for 92L to either:
1. Move under SFL through the straits and then turn N then NE towards Cedar Key area or,
2. Move into the bottom of the Fl Peninsula exiting back out near Cape Canaveral or,
3. Skim the E coast of SFL then turn NE out to sea or,
4. Dissipate.

[chadtm80]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I can't find an October track that even resembles the GFS. This is a classic set up for FL, I think the models are moving 92L to fast to the W and the trough will interact with 92L long before it makes it to the Yucatan. The early Ocotber setup is similiar to a late September setup given the La Nina, per pro's on this site. My climatology based prediction is for 92L to either:
1. Move under SFL through the straits and then turn N then NE towards Cedar Key area or,
2. Move into the bottom of the Fl Peninsula exiting back out near Cape Canaveral or,
3. Skim the E coast of SFL then turn NE out to sea or
4. Dissipate.

Agreed--- I think the track once it hits the GOM will be NE and probably
will bring some very heavy rains to the FL peninsula but Hey at least
it might fill lake ockeechobee before dry La Nina Winter Sets in LOL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

nice graphics!!!!

[caneman]

Would some one please post a formations map that have occurred close this to this area and tracks they've taken for this time a year. I don't have that link. Would be curious to see where these storms have gone throughout history. thanks

[Blown Away]

The latest GFDL supports my theory. It loops under FL then starts bending WNW then slows/stalls as it begins to respond to the trough. These models were not showing this at all this morning, BOC was the target. During the day the models have began to trend a little N at the end run. I can see 92L looping under FL, I don't see it moving that far W, maybe 85W before it begins to interact w/ the trough and begin to turn. If the 00Z models show more N at the end run then a trend has started.

[salescall]

I know this is a little off topic, but what has to happen in order to get the High that has been parked over the Carolinas to move. I thought that a tropical system might do it, but the High seems to be much stronger than any front or tropical system.

I would love to see a little more rain head north to help with the drought (minus any distruction), but can't see a change in sight.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be a broad circulation near 26n 72w at this point with most of the convection on the south and east side of the overall circulation. That little naked swirl that raced out toward the WNW seems to be rotating around the northern periphery.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest GFDL supports my theory. It loops under FL then starts bending WNW then slows/stalls as it begins to respond to the trough. These models were not showing this at all this morning, BOC was the target. During the day the models have began to trend a little N at the end run. I can see 92L looping under FL, I don't see it moving that far W, maybe 85W before it begins to interact w/ the trough and begin to turn. If the 00Z models show more N at the end run then a trend has started.

That is if the trough is even there. The 18z run shows it by Monday..but the 12z does not show it until Wednesday. The later it arrives, the further west this will go. I personally would not be surprised to see anything out of this.

[windlyweathergirl]

You never know even though it's october, there could still be major hurricanes forming in the NE caribbean including the Bahamas region

[Ed Mahmoud]

Either the ridge holds, and this goes West, South of Texas, or the trough digs in, and this then goes North, then Northeast. Very difficult in October to imagine the subtropical ridge getting so far North that something would turn Northwest, and stay on a Northwest course, into Texas.

In my humble opinion.


Ok, as far as amateur prognostication this week, I already correctly called 90L would not effect Texas. Not to brag, off course. OK, maybe brag just a little bit.

[ROCK]

Either the ridge holds, and this goes West, South of Texas, or the trough digs in, and this then goes North, then Northeast. Very difficult in October to imagine the subtropical ridge getting so far North that something would turn Northwest, and stay on a Northwest course, into Texas.

In my humble opinion.


Ok, as far as amateur prognostication this week, I already correctly called 90L would not effect Texas. Not to brag, off course. OK, maybe brag just a little bit.

need to look at your vis loops more often Ed......just a hint....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Either the ridge holds, and this goes West, South of Texas, or the trough digs in, and this then goes North, then Northeast. Very difficult in October to imagine the subtropical ridge getting so far North that something would turn Northwest, and stay on a Northwest course, into Texas.

In my humble opinion.


Ok, as far as amateur prognostication this week, I already correctly called 90L would not effect Texas. Not to brag, off course. OK, maybe brag just a little bit.

need to look at your vis loops more often Ed......just a hint....

You mean 90L, it may be finally getting storms near the center, but it is South of about Pensacola moving NNW towards Mobile. No idea where 92L goes, but I know where it isn't going, if it develops.

On the other hand, looking at a few models, if it gets to the BOC it may have a big enough circulation to bring pretty fresh winds to the lower Texas coast.

[americanrebel]

If it makes it to the BOC before it makes it turn N and then NE then Louisiana would be in trouble. I'm hoping it makes its turn before the BOC.

[JTD]

03/2345 UTC 24.8N 72.4W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean


First T numbers given to 92L.

Wow very impressive. I was surprised to see 1.0 numbers already. Also, I read on another forum a few hours ago that the folks at HRD find this somewhat reminiscient of Katrina's genesis.

[ROCK]

Either the ridge holds, and this goes West, South of Texas, or the trough digs in, and this then goes North, then Northeast. Very difficult in October to imagine the subtropical ridge getting so far North that something would turn Northwest, and stay on a Northwest course, into Texas.

In my humble opinion.


Ok, as far as amateur prognostication this week, I already correctly called 90L would not effect Texas. Not to brag, off course. OK, maybe brag just a little bit.

need to look at your vis loops more often Ed......just a hint....

You mean 90L, it may be finally getting storms near the center, but it is South of about Pensacola moving NNW towards Mobile. No idea where 92L goes, but I know where it isn't going, if it develops.

On the other hand, looking at a few models, if it gets to the BOC it may have a big enough circulation to bring pretty fresh winds to the lower Texas coast.

Oh ok Ed, you win... but I am guessing that NNW into Mobile will not play out just by looking at the last vis images/ steering flows.....but hey your opinion even if its climo based.....



sorry OT mods.....

[Blown Away]

If it makes it to the BOC before it makes it turn N and then NE then Louisiana would be in trouble. I'm hoping it makes its turn before the BOC.

I'll be surprised if it makes it past 85W.

Congrats to me in becoming a "Category 5" amazing how much the BS piles up over the years.

[americanrebel]

ROCK you are in the wrong forum, this is about the system by the Bahama's not the one in the middle of the GOM.

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm not at all confident on the movement of this one. Forecasting late season storms is particularly difficult because of trough interactions, and the fact that ridges and troughs begin to move more quickly.

Here is my take, in case anyone cares:

1. If we at the early period, say 72 hours, there is less modle agreement. Tracks are not in good agreement, with the Nogaps jogging NE, the GFDL and the GFS heading SSE for a time, and the Bams heading just S of W. Thats all over the compass. The rule of thumb here might be little movement at all for the first 72 hours... I predict W perhaps more slowly than indicated... into the straits by the weekend.

2. If this happens, the future track is even more uncertain. Given that a front will be on the way per GFS at about 120 hours, a more NW and then N motion might ensue. This could take the storm across the Keys, then N or NE toward the FL Panhandle, or Big Bend.

Just my opinion. Basically i think W then recurve N then NE by the front in 120 hours. E gulf storm IMO.