INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD:

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 29N71W TO OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 22N75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS A LARGE AREA E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N-28N W OF
61W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, and if it were to be omving WITH that flow, it might not be sheared as bad. Remember Wilma? That was a classic.

This system is going to really rattle our chains! Get ready- no easy answers here. Not for a few more days....

[Blown Away]

At 8:05 the "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM."
At 5:30 the "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT"

[cycloneye]

[fci]

Yes, and if it were to be omving WITH that flow, it might not be sheared as bad. Remember Wilma? That was a classic.

This system is going to really rattle our chains! Get ready- no easy answers here. Not for a few more days....

Then again all these wild models and weird scenarios could be for naught and nothing develop.
The Pros have been wrong before with disturbed areas east of the Bahamas as have every one else has been. We have had several like this which have ultimately NOT developed.
In fact, not one of the areas east of the Bahamas has behaved as predicted and only one has developed; TD10; if you call that even have developed!

Like what has been happening all season long.
Then again........ maybe not this time.
Maybe they are right.
Won't surprise me if nothing happens here.........again.

[jaxfladude]

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/topstories/news-article.aspx?storyid=92577

Added snippet: First Coast Forecast
The low developing east of the Bahamas may bring back winds off the ocean and that means rain we dont need will return as well.

Although the returning showers may not be as heavy as what happened on Tuesday any new rains will only aggrevate our soggy scenario.

Tropical depressions may develop in the Gulf and east of the Bahamas over the next 24 hours.

First Coast News Weather Team

[jasons2k]

This thread was cleaned-up. Please stop the madness or vacations will be issued.

[cycloneye]

03/2345 UTC 24.8N 72.4W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean


First T numbers given to 92L.

[Blown Away]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
Notice the whole convection envelope is anti cyclonic.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT Official

I expect a tropical depression by Friday Night (48 hours)...
The strong ridge will push it SW likely near Cuba and the florida
straits...and then it gets out into the gulf---depending on how
slowly it moves getting there- a trough may affect it...in ways
that would not be good for the gulf coast...

[JonathanBelles]

***NOT Official

I expect a tropical depression by Friday Night (48 hours)...
The strong ridge will push it SW likely near Cuba and the florida
straits...and then it gets out into the gulf---depending on how
slowly it moves getting there- a trough may affect it...in ways
that would not be good for the gulf coast...

Ill agree with this, Not sure the timing, but I will go a little bit farther in saying the WGOM looks to be out of the picture on this one.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 040017
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0017 UTC THU OCT 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20071004 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071004 0000 071004 1200 071005 0000 071005 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.1N 73.0W 26.3N 74.0W 26.1N 75.2W 25.7N 77.1W
BAMD 26.1N 73.0W 25.7N 73.7W 25.0N 74.9W 24.2N 76.5W
BAMM 26.1N 73.0W 26.0N 74.0W 25.7N 75.2W 25.2N 76.9W
LBAR 26.1N 73.0W 26.1N 73.6W 25.8N 74.4W 25.2N 75.6W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071006 0000 071007 0000 071008 0000 071009 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 79.3W 24.6N 84.4W 24.0N 88.7W 22.6N 91.9W
BAMD 23.5N 78.4W 22.5N 82.3W 22.2N 85.5W 22.3N 88.3W
BAMM 24.8N 78.9W 24.1N 83.1W 23.8N 86.8W 23.2N 89.8W
LBAR 24.7N 77.3W 23.2N 81.5W 22.6N 85.7W 23.0N 89.1W
SHIP 44KTS 56KTS 68KTS 72KTS
DSHP 44KTS 56KTS 68KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.1N LONCUR = 73.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 26.1N LONM12 = 72.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 26.1N LONM24 = 72.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[vbhoutex]

***NOT Official

I expect a tropical depression by Friday Night (48 hours)...
The strong ridge will push it SW likely near Cuba and the florida
straits...and then it gets out into the gulf---depending on how
slowly it moves getting there- a trough may affect it...in ways
that would not be good for the gulf coast...

Ill agree with this, Not sure the timing, but I will go a little bit farther in saying the WGOM looks to be out of the picture on this one.

Not disagreeing, but curious as to your reasoning. A bold statement to make without any back up considering the current pattern.

[fci]

Good Job cycloneye. Thanks for all you do.

Yes Luis; let me add that I really like the new way of showing the model run in one message rather in several scattered among the clutter of messages.

Thank you !

[KatDaddy]

Hope so fact789. The NW GOM does not want it. Time for Fall transition.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If the system moves quickly or faster it will be a
WGOM issue.....but if it moves very slowly
it gives more time for the trough to dig in

The trough becomes sharp at 180-204 hours which is
7.5-8.5 days...the key here will be How Fast 92L moves

If 92L stalls after 5 days as some of the globals in the global
thread show- that would let the trough arrive in 2 days and accelerate
it NE to...Florida...

[vbhoutex]

Hope so fact789. The NW GOM does not want it. Time for Fall transition.

You got that right!!! Bring it on!!

[JonathanBelles]

If the system moves quickly or faster it will be a
WGOM issue.....but if it moves very slowly
it gives more time for the trough to dig in

The trough becomes sharp at 180-204 hours which is
7.5-8.5 days...the key here will be How Fast 92L moves

If 92L stalls after 5 days as some of the globals in the global
thread show- that would let the trough arrive in 2 days and accelerate
it NE to...Florida...

The models that I do see, like the GFS and a model on the news, slow it down or stall it in the CGOM and the trough bring it back east and NE toward FL. Depending on how quickly it stalls, the farther east it goes.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes thank you cycloneye!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If the system moves quickly or faster it will be a
WGOM issue.....but if it moves very slowly
it gives more time for the trough to dig in

The trough becomes sharp at 180-204 hours which is
7.5-8.5 days...the key here will be How Fast 92L moves

If 92L stalls after 5 days as some of the globals in the global
thread show- that would let the trough arrive in 2 days and accelerate
it NE to...Florida...

The models that I do see, like the GFS and a model on the news, slow it down or stall it in the CGOM and the trough bring it back east and NE toward FL. Depending on how quickly it stalls, the farther east it goes.

Going to be interesting to watch...
This is organizing very well with banding convection-
underneath the anticyclonic flow is a somewhat
cyclonic rotating system in the link provided to the sat
view in one of the posts above...

This is likely to have the biggest impact threat to FL
since Ernesto of last year.