INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[eaglegirl]

... that weak swirl turned out to be an imposter

At the risk of having everyone laughing at me, I will share my "foolproof" method of locating the real swirl. I don't know if it will work on anyone elses computer... but, it works on mine.

It works best if I load the wator vapor loop image new (not refreshing the page).

I use the Water Vapor Loops. As the images are loading, I click the Lat/Lon box. This keeps the loop page "centered" on my screen. Immediately after all of the images load, I see very quick pages fly by... revealing isobars, numbers, and barbs (like on quickscat). I wait for the page that shows the barbs (it comes and goes very fast) and put my finger on my screen at the center of the barbs.

When the loop starts, my finger is always at the real center. I can't count how many times I would have missed the real swirl if I had only looked at the loop with just my eyes.

[Cyclone1]

... that weak swirl turned out to be an imposter

At the risk of having everyone laughing at me, I will share my "foolproof" method of locating the real swirl. I don't know if it will work on anyone elses computer... but, it works on mine.

It works best if I load the wator vapor loop image new (not refreshing the page).

I use the Water Vapor Loops. As the images are loading, I click the Lat/Lon box. This keeps the loop page "centered" on my screen. Immediately after all of the images load, I see very quick pages fly by... revealing isobars, numbers, and barbs (like on quickscat). I wait for the page that shows the barbs (it comes and goes very fast) and put my finger on my screen at the center of the barbs.

When the loop starts, my finger is always at the real center. I can't count how many times I would have missed the real swirl if I had only looked at the loop with just my eyes.

There are boxes above the image. Check them all one at the time and see what happens. Specifically the HDW ones.

[robert_88]

Wonder how far south the front will be digging at 108 hrs west of 92L? Looks like it may miss it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmmm.. This run, unlike the 12z, is now showing a cold front slicing through Texas by hour 108. Considering the flip-flopping of the models and all the times we have been tricked this fall with "fantasy fronts", I will not be buying into this just it yet. However, if the front starts showing up on future (0z, 6z, 12z) runs, then we might need to start considering the possible impact this could have on the steering currents for any possible cyclone in the GOM. It could definitely make for an interesting twist of events if it did play out.

update: It looks like the front never digs too far south and it misses the cyclone to the north. Probably will not have a huge impact on track.

[robert_88]

Close but... no cigar. Looks like it becomes trapped and stalls out missing the front.

[cycloneye]

More than two days stationary? What will start to move it?

[robert_88]

More than two days stationary? What will start to move it?

Got me??? Strange track for sure.

[cycloneye]

Well,it looks like climo is now in the works as it is moving NE towards the Keys.

[Extremeweatherguy]

More than two days stationary? What will start to move it?

yes, that is strange and certainly very Opal-esque. The question now though is will there be another front/trough coming down to pick this up down the road? Or will it just meander in the BOC or southern GOM until it dies out or moves into Texas/Mexico? Seems like we may have another confusing track situation coming up.

[srainhoutx]

Tampa bound and racing NE... Hmmm

[Blown Away]

Ok we are supposed to buy a track in October that starts @26N/73W and goes WSW through or near FL Straits to the Yucatan @21N/84W, then turns around and moves NE back towards FL. Lay all the models out, that ain't gonna happen. IMO

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hitting the west coast south of Tampa?
A blind squirrel can predict better than that...

200 something hours out--- I HIGHLY doubt that will happen-
I think around that time I'll be at the beach basking in the sun...

[robert_88]

Looks like southern Florida is the bullseye in this run. The Carolinas have some good chances of rain in the works as well. We need it.

[StormTracker]

... that weak swirl turned out to be an imposter

At the risk of having everyone laughing at me, I will share my "foolproof" method of locating the real swirl. I don't know if it will work on anyone elses computer... but, it works on mine.

It works best if I load the wator vapor loop image new (not refreshing the page).

I use the Water Vapor Loops. As the images are loading, I click the Lat/Lon box. This keeps the loop page "centered" on my screen. Immediately after all of the images load, I see very quick pages fly by... revealing isobars, numbers, and barbs (like on quickscat). I wait for the page that shows the barbs (it comes and goes very fast) and put my finger on my screen at the center of the barbs.

When the loop starts, my finger is always at the real center. I can't count how many times I would have missed the real swirl if I had only looked at the loop with just my eyes.

So what coordinates did you come up with

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS run has started to roll.This post will be used to post all the timeframes.That will not cause me to post different posts for every timeframe. So stay tuned to this post as the run is posted.

18z GFs at 24 Hours

18z GFS at 36 Hours

18z GFS at 48 Hours Getting Close to North Coast of Haiti

18z GFS at 66 Hours Getting Close to Northern Cuba Coast

18z GFS at 78 Hours Crossing Cuba

18Z GFS at 90 Hours Just South of Cuba

18z GFS at 108 Hours Over Northwestern part of Cuba

18z GFS at 120 Hours In Open Gulf Waters.Here will be the key if it is picked up by front or not.

18z GFS at 138 Hours Still moving slowly North of Yucatan

18z GFS at 150 Hours Gets stuck near north coast of Yucatan

18z GFS at 168 Hours Still stationary Near North Coast of Yucatan

18z GFS at 204 Hours Climatology working now.Starts to move NE.

18z GFS at 216 Hours Continues the NE movement

18z GFS at 228 Hours Makes Landfall just south of Tampa Bay.

18z GFS at 240 Hours Travels up all the Florida Penninsula

18z GFS at 252 Hours Moves rapidly NE east of SC.

18z GFS at 264 Hours Goes up to Outer Banks.

18z GFS at 288 Hours Goes to east of New England.

So here you have it folks.Interesting run in terms of the track.Comments about it?

[robert_88]

Anyone care to tell me what makes 92L take this sharp NE turn??? This is one crazy looking track IF this even verifies.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cycloneye the track is reasonable only from a climatological
standpoint producing something like Wilma for example...but unless
92L moves very slowly westward- much more slowly than currently
forecasted during the next few days, and stalls in the caribbean,
I think the ridge would keep this well south of florida.

[Cyclone1]

Cycloneye the track is reasonable only from a climatological
standpoint producing something like Wilma for example...but unless
92L moves very slowly westward- much more slowly than currently
forecasted during the next few days, and stalls in the caribbean,
I think the ridge would keep this well south of florida.

Agreed, the general rule of thumb is, if it;s in the Gulf, in October, it's a Florida storm. MANY exceptions, but climatology favors the FLA west coast for landfalls in the moth of October.

[eaglegirl]

If Tampa Bay were to receive a direct hit, it would be a bloomin' disaster.

The 2 "worst case scenarios" that have been mentioned time after time during training exercises have been a direct hit to New Orleans and a direct hit to Tampa Bay.

We saw what happened in New Orleans.

Thank God models aren't usually that accurate this far out. Let's keep our fingers crossed that it will be wrong.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cycloneye the track is reasonable only from a climatological
standpoint producing something like Wilma for example...but unless
92L moves very slowly westward- much more slowly than currently
forecasted during the next few days, and stalls in the caribbean,
I think the ridge would keep this well south of florida.

Agreed, the general rule of thumb is, if it;s in the Gulf, in October, it's a Florida storm. MANY exceptions, but climatology favors the FLA west coast for landfalls in the moth of October.

I personally think based on the synoptics posted by wxman57 that this stays well South
of Florida and landfalls much further west/south. For now.

With the steering chart wxman57 posted I HIGHLY doubt any threat to
Florida's west coast...