INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[mvtrucking]

This one looks like a dud. No convection, no convergence, just a weakening low-level swirl. Bones is trying to make his way to the mic but I'm holding him back for another 24-36 hours.

I would keep him (Bones) away for at least another 24 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Am I seeing the circulation(LLC) right at 25.7, 86.9 ?

[wxman57]

This one looks like a dud. No convection, no convergence, just a weakening low-level swirl. Bones is trying to make his way to the mic but I'm holding him back for another 24-36 hours.

I would keep him (Bones) away for at least another 24 hours.

Yeah, he's pretty old now and I have to keep reminding him that he spoke too soon about the disturbance that became Humberto.

[CrazyC83]

This one looks like a dud. No convection, no convergence, just a weakening low-level swirl. Bones is trying to make his way to the mic but I'm holding him back for another 24-36 hours.

I would keep him (Bones) away for at least another 24 hours.

Yeah, he's pretty old now and I have to keep reminding him that he spoke too soon about the disturbance that became Humberto.

That was the last 90L IIRC...

[wxman57]

One thing you might notice in the visible loops is that the plainly-evident vortex is not the main center of this system. Step back a bit and you can see it's rotating around a larger circulation center. There could be two other weaker lows rotating around. One NW of the more prominent vortex and one to its southwest. Multiple lows are NOT good for consolidation and development.

[dwg71]

90L looks better (minus convection) then it ever has.
I would not be surprised to see a sub TS or TS form out of this
in the long term. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The only problem is there isnt a "long term" for this storm. I has almost ZERO chance of getting a name and a less than 50% of getting to depression status.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What do they call those clouds that form off the East Coast in the winter when an Arctic airmass moves over warmer water?


Cause those clouds are on the West side of this mess.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Funny that SAB gives it a T# of 1.0:

03/1745 UTC 25.8N 87.0W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Stormcenter]

Funny that SAB gives it a T# of 1.0:

03/1745 UTC 25.8N 87.0W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Hmmmmm...interesting.

[chadtm80]

[chadtm80]

[Ed Mahmoud]

The colors of the legend don't match the models well.

Odds that the only models with a clue of where it is going are the BAMM and NOGAP.


I see a tint bit of thunderstorm activity with the little cloud swirl, guesstimate a 25% chance it gets called an STD before landfall around Mobile, plus or minus a hundred miles, in my less than official or educated opinion.

[chadtm80]

The colors of the legend don't match the models well.

Odds that the only models with a clue of where it is going are the BAMM and NOGAP.


I see a tint bit of thunderstorm activity with the little cloud swirl, guesstimate a 25% chance it gets called an STD before landfall around Mobile, plus or minus a hundred miles, in my less than official or educated opinion.

They do all match. What throws it off is that the dark orange (LBAR) is not in the key.. Other then that they should all be spot on

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD STILL
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1300
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[lrak]

is there a little swirl at 25n 90w ?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

if I can remember right Wxman57 said he thought there may have been 2 swirls yesterday.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmm....a little more moisture building around 90L as it moves northward.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

29.76 and falling with a N wind again.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well Ed, I have got to hand it to you.. It looks like climatology will indeed win out this time and the system will miss TX to the east. Good call from the get go!

[Stratosphere747]

Wouldn't surprise me with a shift in the models back towards the NGOM. Helps to have a defined LLC.

There is a defined LLC, it is just not very organized ATM.

You can see it clearly using the surface obs: http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-o ... ineM00.gif

Now there is always the possibility that it reforms further north, and we will have to watch for that closely, but currently it is 125 miles WSW of Fort Myers and moving W/WNW (according to the latest TWO).

It's all about patience..

Take your time with 92...

[Ed Mahmoud]

The colors of the legend don't match the models well.

Odds that the only models with a clue of where it is going are the BAMM and NOGAP.


I see a tiny bit of thunderstorm activity with the little cloud swirl, guesstimate a 25% chance it gets called an STD before landfall around Mobile, plus or minus a hundred miles, in my less than official or educated opinion.

They do all match. What throws it off is that the dark orange (LBAR) is not in the key.. Other then that they should all be spot on

Even stranger than, the only models close are the LBAR and the BAMM.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wouldn't surprise me with a shift in the models back towards the NGOM. Helps to have a defined LLC.

There is a defined LLC, it is just not very organized ATM.

You can see it clearly using the surface obs: http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-o ... ineM00.gif

Now there is always the possibility that it reforms further north, and we will have to watch for that closely, but currently it is 125 miles WSW of Fort Myers and moving W/WNW (according to the latest TWO).

It's all about patience..

Take your time with 92...

It never reformed further north though. The LLC we are currently watching is the exact same one from last night...and it is still well-defined (though not nearly organized enough to be called a TD). The shift north in the track is likely due more to previously unforeseen changes in the steering flow rather than changes in the systems structure.