INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[mightyerick]

hey people... do you think is possible that 92L absorbs 90L... eventually???

[Windsurfer_NYC]

hey people... do you think is possible that 92L absorbs 90L... eventually???

erick, no chance. These systems are over 800 miles away from each other, and 90L is moving NW toward the Gulf Coast while 92L is slowly drifting in place....

[cycloneye]

179
WHXX04 KWBC 031729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 24.9 74.4 280./ 4.1
6 25.6 73.6 45./10.4
12 25.9 73.1 62./ 4.8
18 26.1 73.0 28./ 2.7
24 26.2 73.1 302./ 1.2
30 26.1 73.2 227./ 1.7
36 25.6 73.6 218./ 6.0
42 25.1 74.7 244./10.6
48 24.7 75.7 250./10.1
54 24.2 76.3 230./ 7.4
60 23.6 77.2 238./10.1
66 23.5 78.1 258./ 8.3
72 23.5 78.8 271./ 6.5
78 23.5 79.8 273./ 9.2
84 23.6 81.0 275./10.8
90 23.9 82.3 283./12.5
96 24.5 84.3 285./18.9
102 25.1 86.8 284./24.0
108 24.8 88.2 258./13.1
114 24.5 89.0 247./ 7.9
120 24.2 89.9 251./ 8.6
126 23.9 90.5 248./ 5.4


First GFDL Plots for 92L.Goes thru Florida Straits.



GFDL is the blue line.

[Ed Mahmoud]

hey people... do you think is possible that 92L absorbs 90L... eventually???

No, in my humble opinion. Low cloud swirl associated with 90L moves in somewhere around New Orleans, maybe causes a rain shower or two, parent ULL weakens and approaches SW Louisiana or SW Texas. Probably doesn't rain at my house.


This, on the other hand, looks like it will do ok, probably a big one in the Gulf, and per JB, could stall, but I'd guess similar landfall to Lorenzo.

Saw stories, bad flooding round Poza Rica, they don't need another storm.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL goes thru Florida Straits.See models thread for details.

[Weatherboy1]

fci -- actually, my wife and I ARE going on a cruise soon -- Bahamas/Key West leaving 10/15. As of now, it looks like whatever is left of 92 at that time will be out of the way, but you never can tell!

[Evil Jeremy]

I must correct my "tropical storm peak" for this system. Now models agree about put it as a hurricane, perhaps mayor.

lol, mayor

[Blown Away]

I'm going w/ climatology only, I can see the WSW track under the Fl peninsula in response to the high, I'm just not buying WSW all the way into the BOC. I will believe it when I see it.

[BigA]

Whatever path it takes may largely depend on where the low consolidates. If it consolidates at 23 N, a track to Mexico seems to be more likely than if it consolidates at 27 N.

[hial2]

I must correct my "tropical storm peak" for this system. Now models agree about put it as a hurricane, perhaps mayor.

lol, mayor

"He who lives in glass houses should not throw stones", EJ.....

[frederic79]

Honestly you can never really know this far out the timing and potential impact future troughs may exert on this system once it reaches the Yucatan channel area. Not discounting the computer models, but too many things can happen, especially in the second week of October. I mean, look at where TD10 ended up. Look at where 90L is headed. I suspect there may dramatic changes in the models by the weekend.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFDL Animation

GFDL Predicts a very weak joke of a storm..

[O Town]

Looks like a Carnival or Norwegian Cruise lines itinerary to me!!!
Bingo on the Lido deck at 4:00.

[CrazyC83]

Is there a site that shows the satellite loop over the last 5 days or so? I'm trying to figure out what role Karen played in this...

[OuterBanker]

Ed, you best shot at a tropical system will be the 14th. That's the day the Pat's come visiting Dallas. Could be another "home field advantage" for you guys.

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1900 UTC WED OCT 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20071003 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071003 1800 071004 0600 071004 1800 071005 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.9N 73.1W 27.2N 74.0W 27.1N 75.2W 26.6N 77.0W
BAMD 26.9N 73.1W 26.6N 73.4W 25.8N 74.2W 24.8N 75.7W
BAMM 26.9N 73.1W 26.9N 73.9W 26.6N 75.0W 26.1N 76.6W
LBAR 26.9N 73.1W 26.9N 73.4W 26.8N 74.0W 26.3N 74.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071005 1800 071006 1800 071007 1800 071008 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 79.1W 25.5N 84.3W 25.2N 89.3W 24.8N 93.4W
BAMD 23.8N 77.4W 22.1N 81.5W 21.2N 85.1W 20.9N 88.3W
BAMM 25.6N 78.5W 24.6N 82.8W 24.0N 87.0W 23.5N 90.8W
LBAR 25.4N 76.1W 24.1N 80.2W 23.3N 84.4W 23.5N 88.3W
SHIP 43KTS 54KTS 62KTS 65KTS
DSHP 43KTS 54KTS 62KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.9N LONCUR = 73.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 26.9N LONM12 = 72.7W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 26.7N LONM24 = 72.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


They have the initial position more north than the 12:00 UTC run.I think that boca saw the more north position this morning and now they are following it.

[Stormcenter]

12z GFDL Animation

GFDL Predicts a very weak joke of a storm..

Yes it does which means it will be fighting something in the GOM.
The GFS also shows the same with it's lastest run. In my opinion
all great news if this comes to pass.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
218 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2007


.DISCUSSION...



THU...MODELS FORECAST CLOSED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO MOVE TOWARD THE LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
COAST. COMBINATION OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PULLING AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND THE DEEPENING
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH KEEPS PUMPING MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA. THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS RESULT IN AT LEAST 50 POP ALONG THE COAST
TO AROUND 60 FOR THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY.

FRI...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...U.S. WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
MAINTAINS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
ONSHORE FLOW DOWN THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD
PRODUCE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL SHOWER(S) THAT WILL QUICKLY
PUSH INLAND DURING THE DAY. STRONG EAST WEST STEERING FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN AREAS OF OUR CWA.

SAT-MON...WEATHER GOES DOWNHILL AS TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH KEEPS MARINE
STRATOCU...SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND GENERALLY SQUALLY WEATHER
ROLLING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY IF NOT INTO MONDAY.
BEACH CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK PROMISING WITH BUILDING SURF AND GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE MONDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS BETWEEN THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGHS...AND THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
IMPACT WEATHER UPDaTES...SPRATT
LONG TERM....WIMMER

[Weatherboy1]

HPC maps follow the "through the straits, into southern Gulf" forecast -- with 92 finishing up in the BOC/Yucatan area at day 6. You can check them out here ...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/