INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[canetracker]

Steve,

I got the same e-mail this morning. T. Scott always does a good analysis in his writings. I will be following his advice and watching this system.

[Steve]

>>I got the same e-mail this morning. T. Scott always does a good analysis in his writings. I will be following his advice and watching this system.

Yeah, he used to work (I think at Lake Charles NWS) not sure if he still does or not. But I find his interpretations pretty understandable for most lay people with at least a passing interest. Overall it looks like a dry run to me. Even if it was to attain weak TS conditions, any major rain is probably to the east of landfall and might not mean more than a little street flooding or some 3-5" (at most) stuff in southern Mississippi if his SELA or SCLA tracks verify. Interesting that he goes with the 'weakening near landfall' trend shown by the models. We haven't really seen that much this year as we haven't had recurving/fading storms later in the year. Most have been intensifying at landfall in the Western Gulf. So that will be interesting to see. I think convection is at a minimum, but we will see tonight and tomorrow if a heat engine can get running down in the Gulf. Then we'll know if we're just going to see some fast moving low clouds and 15mph breezy conditions or if there is going to be some weather involved. I haven't taken a position either way. I'm just a curious observer.

Steve

[jasons2k]

It really is moving more NNW on the visible loop, and at a decent clip. There might be a window for it to develop into something but I don't think it has much room, not with these conditions.

[Steve]

Schlitz,

I've got it at 25.5N, 86.98W as per 16:15UTC image. Is that what you're seeing?

Steve

[srainhoutx]

Schlitz,

I've got it at 25.5N, 86.98W as per 16:15UTC image. Is that what you're seeing?

Steve

Good Call Steve. Looks like a tad N of a WNW motion at this time. Nice little LLC with no convection.

[mightyerick]

I wonder if the moisture of a dissipating 90L can help the development of 92L after the last one begins its voyage over the GOM.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Schlitz,

I've got it at 25.5N, 86.98W as per 16:15UTC image. Is that what you're seeing?

Steve

And you didn't believe me when I told you nothing else would effect Texas this year.

Climatology 1, Monday's UK Met and NOGAPS, 0.

[Stormcenter]

90L looks better (minus convection) then it ever has.
I would not be surprised to see a sub TS or TS form out of this
in the long term. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well defined LLC that seems to be developing thunderstorms
around it...that's what humberto started out as- a compact,
well defined LLC if it gets convection can intensify very
quickly. Over those hot waters easily a tropical storm
before landfall...

[Wx_Warrior]

I stated yesterday this thing wouldn't be powerful and nearly started a riot on here...I dont know about anything landing in Tejas the rest of the way, but I know this system is struggling.

[jasons2k]

Yes, that's it. Looks like he wants lunch tomorrow at Galatoirie's....

[mightyerick]

I wonder if the moisture of a dissipating 90L (after landfall) can help the development of 92L after the last one begins its voyage over the GOM.

[storms in NC]

I don't think this is going to do much. But over to the east side of Fla I think will.

[Steve]

>>And you didn't believe me when I told you nothing else would effect Texas this year.

I'm still not convinced. We are in a weird pattern this year with highs seeping into SELA from the N and NE (as I've been saying for weeks). As these highs move offshore, ridging noses up from the Atlantic and returns the area to a SE flow. It's getting later and later for anything to impact Texas or the Mexcian coast, but it's still not out of the entire realm of possibility. However, in the spirit of fairness, you can nuke my Saints Helmet avatar for a week if this becomes an STD ( ) or a TD and impacts points Louisiana eastward. Of course I will expect the same should anything hit the western Gulf Coast between now and the official close of the season.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The officially unofficial humble opinion du moi:


in my humble opinion. Low cloud swirl associated with 90L moves in somewhere around New Orleans, maybe causes a rain shower or two, maybe someone decides it is a STD before it goes in, parent ULL weakens and approaches SW Louisiana or SE Texas. Probably doesn't rain at my house.


But, maybe a decent weekend for the beach, I don't think I need to see a dissapointing Texas team get whupped on this weekend. But, win or lose, though I'm not a big fan of Bob Stoops, and think he runs up scores, I'm certain neither Mac Brown or Stoops sell team injury report information and practice info, forbidden by NCAA rules, of possible use to gamblers, for $1200 a pop.

[vbhoutex]

90L looks better (minus convection) then it ever has.
I would not be surprised to see a sub TS or TS form out of this
in the long term. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I'm not so sure about this developing still, but unless my eyes are decieving me the LLC is moving almost due north attm. That isn't something that has been anticipated that I am aware of. Comments?

[Thunder44]

I'm starting to have doubts about any development. Even though it has a well-defined center now, it moving NNW, right into the path of the ULL moving west over Northern GOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Too much dry air is preventing thunderstorm from forming around center. It should move inland over LA by tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

>>And you didn't believe me when I told you nothing else would effect Texas this year.

I'm still not convinced. We are in a weird pattern this year with highs seeping into SELA from the N and NE (as I've been saying for weeks). As these highs move offshore, ridging noses up from the Atlantic and returns the area to a SE flow. It's getting later and later for anything to impact Texas or the Mexcian coast, but it's still not out of the entire realm of possibility. However, in the spirit of fairness, you can nuke my Saints Helmet avatar for a week if this becomes an STD ( ) or a TD and impacts points Louisiana eastward. Of course I will expect the same should anything hit the western Gulf Coast between now and the official close of the season.

OK, a few rough patches, nromal for his seocnd year in the pros, but Reggie Bush should have been The Texans pick in the draft last year. Or since they dumped Carr after the season anyway, Leinart or Vince Young.

I saw the Saints blow a 3rd quarter lead to the Falcons inside the Super Dome 8 or 9 years ago when I worked in New Iberia. I think the stairs are too steep on the upper deck in there, especially for fans drinking out of mondo 'bones' of daquiris, but I like the Saints compared to most non-homestate teams.

[wxman57]

This one looks like a dud. No convection, no convergence, just a weakening low-level swirl. Bones is trying to make his way to the mic but I'm holding him back for another 24-36 hours.

[Stormcenter]

This one looks like a dud. No convection, no convergence, just a weakening low-level swirl. Bones is trying to make his way to the mic but I'm holding him back for another 24-36 hours.

I would keep him (Bones) away for at least another 24 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html