INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on ship reports and buoys the LLC is getting better organized tonight. In fact is forming a much sharper wind field=becoming slowly tropical or subtropical. The LLC is near 24.5 north/86 west. With a weak MLC near 27 north/85 west.

[HouTXmetro]

Based on ship reports and buoys the LLC is getting better organized tonight. In fact is forming a much sharper wind field=becoming slowly tropical or subtropical. The LLC is near 24.5 north/86 west. With a weak MLC near 27 north/85 west.

In terms of wind or pressure? Definately not convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC struture and wind field becoming smaller...We will have to see if convection fires over the core. Once it does so its a shoe in for being upgraded.

[HouTXmetro]

LLC struture and wind field becoming smaller...We will have to see if convection fires over the core. Once it does so its a shoe in for being upgraded.

Do you have a link to the Ships and bouy reports in that area?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

Click on floater near windward or leeward islands and it shows a loop with ship and buoy reports.


*edited by southerngale to add the URL tags, so the link will open in new window/tab

[HouTXmetro]

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

Click on floater near windward or leeward islands and it shows a loop with ship and buoy reports.

Are we in the middle of the GOES satellite eclipes? If so when does it end.....? Thanks in Advance

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

3am est and yes we are in it.

[HouTXmetro]

3am est and yes we are in it.

Thanks for your help and patience Matt, is there I site I can get any satellite loops?

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030922
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[wxman57]

As of 4am CDT, the center is near 25.5N/86.4W, as is easily seen on this surface plot. Still no convection around the center, and dry air continues to flow out over the Gulf to its north. Has a good chance to become an STD or even a weak STS before landfall, but not much more.

I'm not sure why the models were initialized almost 120 miles south of the point I indicated as the center, but the buoy clearly indicates a center to the west not to the south.

[Extremeweatherguy]

you're center might be a tad too far northeast wxman57 (b/c I would expect a more southerly wind from that nearest buoy if it was really that close)...but then again the center still looks pretty broad too, so it is likely not one exact point either. It really doesn't look like there are enough buoys to pinpoint it perfectly. Hopefully recon gives us a better idea this afternoon.

[wxman57]

you're center might be a tad too far northeast wxman57 (b/c I would expect a more southerly wind from that nearest buoy if it was really that close)...but then again the center still looks pretty broad too, so it is likely not one exact point either. It really doesn't look like there are enough buoys to pinpoint it perfectly. Hopefully recon gives us a better idea this afternoon.

Wind direction would be angled slightly in toward the low, not tangent to the low. The wind at that buoy rotated from ESE to SSE in the past 6 hours, an indication that the center is moving WNW to the west of the buoy.

[Nimbus]

The circulation appears elongated SW to NE at some level. Should prevent any kind of rapid development. The convection further east in the Bahamas is a little concerning since there is a developing ridge.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTNT01 KNGU 030000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 030000Z OCT 07//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.0N 85.0W TO 27.0N 90.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 030000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.0N 85.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 125NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS, FLORIDA HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1005MB, WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ENCOUNTERS WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (82F/28C) AND MORE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 040000Z
OCT 2007.//

[HouTXmetro]

At the present there is just too much dry air for this to overcome.

[curtadams]

The models think this is as intense and as tropical as it's going to get - which is not very for either. Last night it looked like a weak subtropical system but today it doesn't even look like that.

[HURAKAN]

That's what looks give you! Judging a system by its looks can be deceiving!

[gerrit]

Confused? What? We are all confused. Its the way of the 2007 season. Best thing is no one has been seriously effected except for my friends just to the E of the Houston-Galveston area such as SG and bbadon. .

.. and roughly 150 people who died because of Dean and Felix and thousands in the tracks of these two 'canes who lost everything.

But wait... they're no Americans, so it doesn't count.

Is it possible to spare the lectures?
Do you REALLY think that people don't care?

Was I lecturing? Your post sounds more like a lecture to me.
Yes, I REALLY think that people don't care. It shows.

[Stormcenter]

:uarrow: That's what looks give you! Judging a system by its looks can be deceiving!

That is correct and it works both ways. Some invests look great but really don't have the support or conditions for development.

[lrak]

Will someone tell me why this thing is going SW Louisiana? Is the trough over the mid US strong enough? Don't disagree with the models or the boggy man will get you