INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[SETXweatherwatcher]

How far inland should not worry too much about wind? As the crow flies, I am only about 18-22 miles inland.

A 60 mph tropical storm is about the same as a low end severe thunderstorm, wind wise. Widely scattered power outages, some tree limbs.


I'd think BPT area would have lost all the easily downed tree limbs during Humberto, so, in my very unofficial opinion, probably not terribly bad.

I was in the Golden Triangle today. Sabine is a mess and trees still show scarring. Humberto just made things worse.....

I haven't been dow there since Rita. I heard from a friend that is was just a mess.

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see the better organization right now that the NHC talks about in the TWO. Some TS to the west of lowest pressure, but the UL's are a mess and the dry air surrounds.

Even looks confusing on WV imagery as far as the ULL goes, seems to be two of them rotating around each other.

[aOl]

But realize any center reformation would throw all these models out the window. And as we all know, center reformations are common with these weak systems, especially subtropical ones.

[KatDaddy]

Still looks quite harmless as expected. Not much concern at all currently. This is Oct and not Sept or Aug for the NW GOM. I do not see much development from this system from a tropical standpoint.

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD:


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF THE 02/2100 UTC...A 1005 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W OR ABOUT 125 MILES W-SW OF FORT
MYERS FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-88W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO THE
W OR W-NW NEAR 10 KT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BLOW OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES JUST SE OF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEAS AT THE MID GULF BUOY 42001 HAVE
BEEN IN THE 10 FT RANGE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH IS
BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE NEW MULTIGRID WW3 MODEL.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[lrak]

8:05 PM TWD:


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF THE 02/2100 UTC...A 1005 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W OR ABOUT 125 MILES W-SW OF FORT
MYERS FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-88W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO THE
W OR W-NW NEAR 10 KT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BLOW OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES JUST SE OF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEAS AT THE MID GULF BUOY 42001 HAVE
BEEN IN THE 10 FT RANGE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH IS
BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE NEW MULTIGRID WW3 MODEL.

whats the multigrid ww3 model?

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna_ecg.anim.gif

http://www.lajollasurf.org/images/caanim.gif

http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/

one of these?

And please let me know what the hect is that coming into the GOM after 90L?

[KatDaddy]

Still looks quite harmless as expected. and not much concern currently. This is Oct and not Sept or Aug for the NW GOM. I do not see much development from this system fas a tropical cyclone. Most likely a drift in S Central LA.

Glad I cleaned up my post from the models thread........its good to re-read before you post

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL Animation

Landfall in Galveston as a Moderate Sub or Tropical Storm.

[RL3AO]

18z GFDL Animation

Landfall in Galveston as a Moderate Sub or Tropical Storm.

So another system that strengthens over Oklahoma before becoming a neutercane over Lake Superior/Michigan?

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 030038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC WED OCT 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071003 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071003 0000 071003 1200 071004 0000 071004 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 85.8W 24.7N 86.8W 25.8N 87.8W 27.1N 89.3W
BAMD 23.8N 85.8W 25.1N 87.0W 26.3N 88.4W 27.3N 89.7W
BAMM 23.8N 85.8W 24.7N 87.0W 25.8N 88.3W 26.8N 89.7W
LBAR 23.8N 85.8W 24.4N 88.1W 25.1N 90.5W 26.0N 92.9W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071005 0000 071006 0000 071007 0000 071008 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.4N 90.8W 31.3N 93.5W 35.9N 95.4W 42.5N 95.0W
BAMD 28.4N 90.8W 31.0N 93.1W 36.3N 95.4W 44.7N 96.7W
BAMM 27.9N 91.1W 30.3N 93.7W 34.8N 96.0W 41.8N 96.8W
LBAR 26.7N 95.4W 29.2N 99.4W 36.8N 98.3W 47.9N 90.8W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 59KTS 53KTS
DSHP 54KTS 46KTS 29KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.8N LONCUR = 85.8W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 24.4N LONM12 = 82.6W DIRM12 = 261DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 24.9N LONM24 = 79.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

02/2345 UTC 26.8N 84.9W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


Now I am confused with the positions that they are giving.Which is the right one,the SSD at 26.8n or the BAMS 23.8N 85.8W?

[ROCK]

02/2345 UTC 26.8N 84.9W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


Now I am confused with the positions that they are giving.Which is the right one,the SSD at 26.8n or the BAMS 23.8N 85.8W?

just by looking at the vis, I would put the LLC at 24N 86W so yes the BAMM seem correct in this instance, IMO....

[KatDaddy]

Confused? What? We are all confused. Its the way of the 2007 season. Best thing is no one has been seriously effected except for my friends just to the E of the Houston-Galveston area such as SG and bbadon. Rita is the unforgetten storm from 2005. If this is the worst 2007 has then cheers and lets move on Winter.

[ROCK]

also note the LLC is not right under the ULL seems to be more to the sse. Not as stacked as once thought. Shear maybe a culprit here....

Edit: looking at WV loop the ULL seems to be pulling north separating itself from the LLC which continues west.....very interesting....

[Extremeweatherguy]

CONU now takes this right up Galveston Bay.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_90.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, the latest CONU has shifted west and shows this system moving right up Galveston Bay.

[Extremeweatherguy]

also note the LLC is not right under the ULL seems to be more to the sse. Not as stacked as once thought. Shear maybe a culprit here....

Edit: looking at WV loop the ULL seems to be pulling north separating itself from the LLC which continues west.....very interesting....

Might mean a better chance for this to go right to TD or TS skipping the STD or STS stage.

[Ed Mahmoud]

About 24º and 86º?


No storms nearby.

[ROCK]

also note the LLC is not right under the ULL seems to be more to the sse. Not as stacked as once thought. Shear maybe a culprit here....

Edit: looking at WV loop the ULL seems to be pulling north separating itself from the LLC which continues west.....very interesting....

Might mean a better chance for this to go right to TD or TS skipping the STD or STS stage.

yeah , I dont know EWG......still some dry air out there and from the looks of it some southerly shear displacing the convection to the north.....ULL is helping the convection no doubt survive.....need to find a shear forecast....

[wxman57]

The buoy in the eastern Gulf gives a very good indication of where the low center is. Check out the image below. With the buoy's wind just shifting to about 100 deg. at 15 kts and a pressure of 1006.8mb, that would put the center just to the S-SSW of the buoy near 25.1N/86.1W. Looks like a mid to upper-level rotation west of the center where the convection is. Note the air with dew points in the low 60s flowing offshore into the NE Gulf. Low 60 dew points aren't good for tropical development, but the pressure gradient north of the low is supporting 25-30kt winds. South of the low only 5-10 kt winds. So still more of a frontal low.