Tropical Development in Area East of Bahamas?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop



Here is the whole 18z GFS run in the loop.See how it starts in the East of Bahamas and goes from there.

[BigA]

This is 9 days out, but still, it looks like some sort of large storm may come out of this. The landfall is 216 hrs away, but the low spinning up is about 3 days.

[Vortex]

I'm shocked TWO doesn't mention this...Current imagery is indicative of organization ongoing with every hour. MAJOR potential here for many...

[flwxwatcher]

Todays 12Z euro, while not nearly as strong as the 18Z GFS paints a similar time frame and track as the 18Z GFS for the potential Caribbean/Gulf system.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7100212!!/

[caneman]

I guess I'll have to be careful to never scream drought again. Lots of rain from tropical activity already from Barry, TD10 and the Invest and whatever this may possibly come from this model run(and I may bem issing one that impacted us rain wise). I have no idea how much we've got but its been a lot, I can't ever remember sooo many rainy tropical days/being involved in tropical activity albeit nothing major. It seems much of the activity this year has formed near or impacted the State. I'm a little concerned if a big boy gets loose in the Gulf this month.

[Blown Away]

What kind of crazy track is this:
1. Starts E of Bahamas
2. Moves WSW over Cuba into NW Caribbean
3. Turns around and then moves back towards the FL Panhandle
You guys really think this will happen?

[caneman]

Throw and high pressure and then a front, yep it could.

[cycloneye]

I'm shocked TWO doesn't mention this...Current imagery is indicative of organization ongoing with every hour. MAJOR potential here for many...

Is only my opinion,but after this GFS run,they must haved seen it and if not at 10:30 PM at 5:30 AM they will start to mention it.

[caneman]

They should mention it. Come om NHC wake up! Just look at the Satellite. And why isn't this thing already an invest?

[Blown Away]

I'm shocked TWO doesn't mention this...Current imagery is indicative of organization ongoing with every hour. MAJOR potential here for many...

I agree, there is a giant area of persistent convection. No obvious circulation, but the persistent convection deserves to be discussed. IMO

[caneman]

And throw in some model support

[cycloneye]

Now lets see what the 00z runs of GFS and the other models will have on this.I want to see if GFS has a repeat of the track it had at 18z.

[Vortex]

Has anyone had a chance to do any research on storms/hurricanes forming in this region/ time of year? Working late tonight but will do my research when I get home tonight..

[jlauderdal]

Has anyone had a chance to do any research on storms/hurricanes forming in this region/ time of year? Working late tonight but will do my research when I get home tonight..

Vortex,

we can get hit from any direction this time of year in fort lauderdale, thats about all you need to know

[CrazyC83]

What is the list of conditions for declaring an Invest?

[cycloneye]

Certainly,something is going on in that big mass of clouds.

[srainhoutx]

What is the list of conditions for declaring an Invest?

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

[artist]

MAJOR flood threat for SFL and Keys if this verified..

here in northern Palm Beach county - we do NOT need any more rain! We will not be able to get out of our driveway if this is a rain maker. Water found it's way into one of our rooms already! The last week has been unbelieveable where we live.

[Normandy]

The track isn't really that far fetched to be honest....A ridge N of the system pushes it SW (a strong ridge at that), and soon enough of front comes along and weakens the ridge....pushing it N. Not that complicated or far-fetched really.

Whats really interesting however is the slow movement of the system...I figure it would be moving much faster if it was being pushed by a strong ridge to the north.

[Cyclenall]

Certainly,something is going on in that big mass of clouds.

Just a massive heap of energy waiting to be used. Wonder if a large October surprise is waiting in the wings.