INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Extremeweatherguy]

If I am looking at this shear map correctly,isn't shear in the 10 knot range over this Invest?

Yes, in the 10-15 knot range. It is certainly not enough to stop this from developing.

The biggest negative right now is the dry air: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

However, it has been fighting it pretty well this afternoon.

[Stormcenter]

If I am looking at this shear map correctly,isn't shear in the 10 knot range over this Invest?

Yes, in the 10-15 knot range. It is certainly not enough to stop this from developing.

The biggest negative right now is the dry air: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

However, it has been fighting it pretty well this afternoon.

Yes but like with TD10 the dry air is not going anywhere fast if at all.

[americanrebel]

Dry air is moving West at a pretty good clip.

Looking at the Visible and IR3, looks like the LLC is West of the ULL. Am I seeing this correctly?

[americanrebel]

Since people are trying to compare this to TD 10, can we expect this system to go further East of the projected paths?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Since people are trying to compare this to TD 10, can we expect this system to go further East of the projected paths?

Unlikely. By the time TD10 was in the GOM, the models had already all shifted toward NOLA eastward and we no longer expected the storm to make it west of central LA. This time, however, the opposite has happened. The models that were pointed east are starting to shift west and with a ridge in place and the storm already far enough south, I think it is becoming more and more likely that this will end up hitting somewhere from NOLA westward...likely in TX or SW LA.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[dwg71]

It would appear that it will struggle to get to any strength beyond mild TS and Southern LA seems to be a probable area to be affected. No biggie IMO. Odds on getting a name 30%.

[hurricanetrack]

Name would be Noel.

It is a male name, so it would be pronounced Nole and not No-El like Xmas.

Next up is Olga. That sounds lovely.

[dwg71]

^ i do believe its (Nole) and not (No L)

[cycloneye]

In spanish is No-el.

[BigA]

The NOGAPS and GFS degrade the shear in the western gulf in the next three days. It appears to me that this system will be hampered more by its inherent disorganization than by unfavorable upper level winds.

Interesting that the map shows a closed, though broad low now.

[jasons2k]

I didn't think this would close-off completely until tomorrow; also there is a lot of convection on the west side of this that could wrap over time. This does not look like your typical highly-sheared system with all the convection well-removed to the east. IMO I think some are writing this off too quickly. As I've been saying since Sunday we won't know what will really happen with this probably until tomorrow (Wednesday). The parameters that could affect intensity (such as shear, etc.) can't be reliably forecasted 4 and 5 days in advance...and just since yesterday there have already been big changes to the local forcast with regards to the front and the trough out west. This will impact what happens to 90L.

[Ed Mahmoud]

After staring closely at this visible loop, I think there may be an area of spin, closer to the surface than the ULL, that may not be a completely closed circulation, just East of the storms. If this is what will be the center, (and I don't know) it is already moving more North than West, and while the Beta Advection models may be cosnidered unsophisticated, their forecast of a Panhandle or Alabama landfall of whatever feature is there could be correct.

[HURAKAN]

Noel

No·el [ nō él ] (plural No·els) or No·ël [ nō él ] (plural No·ëls)

noun

Definition:

Christmas: Christmas, especially in carols or greetings

[12th century. < French< Latin (dies) natalis "birth (day)" < nasci "be born"]

From encarta: http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861683540/Noel.html

[Steve]

>>After staring closely at this visible loop, I think there may be an area of spin, closer to the surface than the ULL, that may not be a completely closed circulation, just East of the storms. If this is what will be the center, (and I don't know) it is already moving more North than West...

It was also apparent on the WV loop. Whether it's a primary low or just a rotating one (which would be moving north based on its overall position to a broader low) remains to be seen. If there is any similarity in organizing from subtropical with a broad area of low pressure to a primary center, we'll probably see a few more of those along the way. But based on what TD #10 did, I wouldn't discount the possibility of a farther-than-anticipated east landfall.

Steve

[srainhoutx]

Snipet from HGX AFD this afternoon...


FXUS64 KHGX 022043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CU OVER THE AREA MAINLY SW TO NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR OVER THE AREA NOW WITH GPS IPWV
SHOWING 1 SOUTH TO 1.5" NORTHWEST COUNTIES. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY SO WILL BE KEEPING THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF GROUND FOG BUT
NOT EXPECTING VISBY TO CRATER.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
PRESSURES AS OF 19Z WERE DOWN TO 1005 MB THAT IS DOWN 7 MB FROM
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WINDS AT BUOY 42003 AND 42036 HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 24-37 KNOTS
MOST OF THE DAY. 42003 HAS HAD PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR IT ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ALL AFTERNO0N. THE WRF/GFS/ECMWF
ALL TAKE IT WEST WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN TURN IT NW
(EXCEPTION BEING THE ECMWF WHICH IS STILL WNW) BRINGING A LARGE
CIRCULATION INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
COUPLE OF THINGS WILL BE WORKING AGAINST RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...WIND SHEAR AND THE COLD CORE TO START WITH AND
THE FACT THAT A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS
WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM PER WATER VAPOR. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX AS THE CORE WARMS ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER WINDS RELAX...AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY STILL BE TO THE EAST OR WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE ON THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE STORMS SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS HERE.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS AM FAVORING A TRACK TOWARDS
SABINE MOUTH FRIDAY. IF IT TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM RATHER
THAN A SUB-TROPICAL THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE THE DAY FOR IT. WITH THIS
IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CLOUDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS IT IS STILL FAR FROM ANY CERTAINTY ON THE TRACK.
STAY TUNED.

ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT OF THE STRONG PACIFIC FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY...MODELS PARTICULARLY THE 00Z RUNS BACKED OFF ENTIRELY. THE
NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS IT BACK JUST DELAYED 12-18 HOURS. FOR THE TIME
BEING HAVE HELD OFF ON IT BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE
IT BACK IN THE 00Z GFS TONIGHT.

NOTE...
WE WILL NOW BE CARRYING NEW GRAPHICS ON THE WEBSITE UPDATED AT
LEAST ONCE A DAY WITH WEATHER OF INTEREST TO THE REGION. SEE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX/GRAPH_HAZ/G ... STHGX2.PHP


&&
.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LOOSENED UP QUITE A BIT AS ADVERTISED BY
MODELS THE LAST 2 DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO LOWER TONIGHT TO
AROUND 4 FEET 20-60 NM REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD START TO
TIGHTEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES IN THE GULF
DUE TO UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE. WE SHALL STAY CLOSER
TO GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT OUR WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN GFS IN ANTICIPATION OF EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT 12Z ECMWF RUN NOW BACK WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
MONDAY (NEXT WEEK).


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

[eaglegirl]

Can anyone tell me what the comma shaped area SW of Tampa is?

[img][/img]

[Stormcenter]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/get ... n=0&max=11

This is the morning discussion. The afternoon one is not out yet.

[srainhoutx]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/get ... n=0&max=11

This is the morning discussion. The afternoon one is not out yet.

Sorry about that. Meant to post HGX anyway.

[fci]

Noel

No·el [ nō él ] (plural No·els) or No·ël [ nō él ] (plural No·ëls)

noun

Definition:

Christmas: Christmas, especially in carols or greetings

[12th century. < French< Latin (dies) natalis "birth (day)" < nasci "be born"]

From encarta: http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861683540/Noel.html

Noel REALLY needs to be a Christmas Storm and not an October storm.