INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[americanrebel]

vb, why do you say that? You are the only one that is really saying that this will not become tropical?

I would have to agree with others on here that most likely this will be tropical and I also have to agree with others on here that this just might become a hurricane due to the fact of where this system is located.

[Wx_Warrior]

This storm is going to be dealing with a ton of dry air. Here's hoping it's nothing serious but I have a good feeling this won't become of much once landfall of whatever it becomes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB (on video) says this may develop a small area of relatively warmer temps aloft within larger upper low, and have narrow area of outflow even as shear screams by in the wrong direction (ie, not an outflow jet, but almost like an anti-outflow jet) such that this can never get above TS strength. He said 40 to 50 knots, 60 knots top, aimed at extreme corner Texas or Louisiana.


But boy, is he ever stoked, about something developing East of the Bahamas, possible with remnants of Karen, possibly not, with very favorable flow aloft, moving general direction of South Florida to Gulf.

He didn't say it, but the overlay MSLP and 500 mb Euro map looked like an Andrew or Katrina type into Gulf then turn Northwestward. The ridge next week ends pretty much right over Lousiana.


Of course, that is just what the EURO map from next week would suggest to me, a guy with a degree that used to know the diffusivity equation, mass balance, multiphase flow in heterogenous porous media, but not a single class in meteorology.

Nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[americanrebel]

Looks like the dry air is disappearing, so there is not as much to kill this system off.

[Ed Mahmoud]

vb, why do you say that? You are the only one that is really saying that this will not become tropical?

I would have to agree with others on here that most likely this will be tropical and I also have to agree with others on here that this just might become a hurricane due to the fact of where this system is located.

Well, even the normally excitable Joe Bastardi says starting cold core, dry air, too much shear to be more than a good TS.



Off to buy lunch...

[mightyerick]

It is placed in a better position than that where TD-10 was. However, 2007 season dissipates everything that dares to develop. Poor tropical systems.

[bwhorton2007]

For all of you saying dry air well i disagree there has to be moisture around or those thunderstorms and convection would not be there and when i went to bed last night the air over the gulf was not as dry as you think hense todays developement.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 16:45 UTC

[americanrebel]

What happens if the shear dies down. (I think I read that earlier) The dry air is not as bad as it was just a couple days ago, so might not have to worry about that. The cold core is already warming. So all these negatives are giving way so this could become a player if not a major player since the system is getting close to the loop.

[Wx_Warrior]

Say what you want but this system won't become powerful.

[alan1961]

Where is the LLC located..if there is one?..any ideas?

[bwhorton2007]

one other note saw where Dr Gray expects at least four more named storms so the tropics are not through by any means.

[Derek Ortt]

I think Bastardi is correct with the Bahamas this time, though there should be enough ridging to keep this south of Florida... possibly a Kate type track across Cuba and affecting the extreme SW Keys

[jasons2k]

yes we will say what we want and yes it has a 50/50 chance at major status being so near the current.

No and no.

If you make such a claim you need to have sound data to back it up; you are not free to just "say what you want".

Secondly, crossing the Loop current in no way ensures a 50/50 shot of becoming a major. Dozens and dozens of systems have crossed the loop current over the years and barely managed to become a TS. The loop current is only one factor of many that can determine the strength of a system.

[BigA]

I think Bastardi is correct with the Bahamas this time, though there should be enough ridging to keep this south of Florida... possibly a Kate type track across Cuba and affecting the extreme SW Keys

Didn't Kate hook back to the northeast and hit the Panhandle? Would this hypothetical storm be more likely to stay on a westward course?, as it is early October, not November, when Kate formed?

As for 90L, I dont see any definitive signs of organization, but the really dry air looks to be rapidly retreating westward. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

yes we will say what we want and yes it has a 50/50 chance at major status being so near the current.

If it were already a well developed system, the Loop Current might super-charge it, but as a system that doesn't have a warm core yet, under shear, not well organized...

Do note Tallahassee sounding this morning is bone dry above 800 mb, with a PW of 1.3 inches

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think Bastardi is correct with the Bahamas this time, though there should be enough ridging to keep this south of Florida... possibly a Kate type track across Cuba and affecting the extreme SW Keys

12Z GFS sort of onboard, has anyone started a thread yet?

[BigA]

I hate to continue the off topic shenannigans, but an administrator should take action and delete bwhorton2007's post. We can disagree, but we must all respect each other, even if we do not come to a consensus of opinion.

In terms of the dry air; it is a problem, but the water vapor loops show the air over Tallhassee (and the eastern gulf) becoming more moist this afternoon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is the name-calling really necessary ????

The mods are quick, and I suspect someone has been sent to a corner for time out...

[jasons2k]

I hate to continue the off topic shenannigans, but an administrator should take action and delete bwhorton2007's post. We can disagree, but we must all respect each other, even if we do not come to a consensus of opinion.

In terms of the dry air; it is a problem, but the water vapor loops show the air over Tallhassee (and the eastern gulf) becoming more moist this afternoon.

Action was promptly taken. That is not tolerated on the board.