Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

28/2345 UTC 16.6N 51.9W T2.5/2.5 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean


Still hanging on with a respiratory machine

[CrazyC83]

28/2345 UTC 16.6N 51.9W T2.5/2.5 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean


Still hanging on with a respiratory machine

Yep, she just might survive, although it is a matter of keeping the LLC, not keeping the winds. I think the winds might be a bit stronger as sheared storms can be quite deceptive at times - i.e. Karen 48 hours ago had T2.0 yet had 60 kt winds (although this is certainly not that much, I'd say maybe 40-45 kt).

[deltadog03]

hey Luis, do you think the LLC got under that convection to the W of the big BLOG??

[cycloneye]

The LLC has raced ahead of the MLC.

[Normandy]

Hmmm....maybe im wrong here...but here is what im seeing.

Karen's current closed low is directly under the northernmost convective burst (and ALSO is under the heaviest shear at the moment and most unfavorable environment). Interestingly, look SE of that. Convection has been firing all day here, and there is tons of inflow from all directions into this convection....I think Karen might be splitting and leaving a piece of energy behind....Doesn't matter though, both areas are being sheared to death....Any other thoughts on this?

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 290048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070929 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070929 0000 070929 1200 070930 0000 070930 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 51.5W 16.9N 53.9W 18.1N 55.8W 19.3N 57.6W
BAMD 16.0N 51.5W 17.5N 51.5W 19.1N 51.4W 20.8N 51.6W
BAMM 16.0N 51.5W 17.0N 52.9W 18.2N 54.1W 19.4N 55.1W
LBAR 16.0N 51.5W 17.1N 52.4W 18.2N 53.4W 19.7N 54.0W
SHIP 35KTS 32KTS 30KTS 29KTS
DSHP 35KTS 32KTS 30KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071001 0000 071002 0000 071003 0000 071004 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 58.8W 22.4N 61.6W 23.9N 64.4W 24.7N 66.6W
BAMD 22.4N 52.3W 24.7N 54.6W 25.1N 58.3W 24.5N 62.8W
BAMM 20.7N 56.1W 22.7N 58.5W 23.9N 61.6W 24.6N 65.0W
LBAR 21.0N 54.9W 23.1N 56.0W 23.9N 57.6W 23.2N 60.5W
SHIP 31KTS 39KTS 42KTS 41KTS
DSHP 31KTS 39KTS 42KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 51.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 3DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 48.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 180NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[deltadog03]

normandy...I think the LLC is under that most NW part of the convection. It is bursting right now. I still think this has A LONG way to go to survive and am not sure it does. BUT*** looks for now its under that NW part. BTW, that part dosn't seem to be getting sheared as much.

[Normandy]

normandy...I think the LLC is under that most NW part of the convection. It is bursting right now. I still think this has A LONG way to go to survive and am not sure it does. BUT*** looks for now its under that NW part. BTW, that part dosn't seem to be getting sheared as much.

Right.
Karen IS under the NW convective burst.
And problem is, Karen is under tremendous shear right now....which leads me to believe it really wont do much for a while.


Im saying that the convection to its SE might become its own entity.

[wxman57]

Nope, I don't think so. I see no evidence of an LLC near either burst of convection. Karen has the appearance of an open wave this evening. The center exploded around 3pm when it hit that streak of high wind shear. It's not reforming. I can see clouds racing westward in an arc into that NW area of storms, but it doesn't appear to be rotating. Might be the end of Karen.

[deltadog03]

Ok, true...I see what you are saying. I just don't know if that will be able to develop either. I am not sure. Wxman I see you lurking...LOL I just looked at the shear maps and its under 40-50kts of shear. My question to you is do you think if Karen can go through these bursting type deals each day long enough to survive the down periods do you think it has a shot at busting through the shear zone?? I see once it does shear drops to around 10kts.

[Normandy]

Nope, I don't think so. I see no evidence of an LLC near either burst of convection. Karen has the appearance of an open wave this evening. The center exploded around 3pm when it hit that streak of high wind shear. It's not reforming. I can see clouds racing westward in an arc into that NW area of storms, but it doesn't appear to be rotating. Might be the end of Karen.

Really?
I see one....I mean its VERY broad, but I see western cloud motions on the southern side of that NW burst. Don't see anything closed on the southernmost burst though. And don't say it won't reform.....this season probably has the highest amount of crow servings in tropical weather history....I'm not saying itll reform or die....im just watching from this point on lol.

And deltadog....na don't think the southern area will get named....just might detach from Karen.

[wxman57]

Ok, true...I see what you are saying. I just don't know if that will be able to develop either. I am not sure. Wxman I see you lurking...LOL I just looked at the shear maps and its under 40-50kts of shear. My question to you is do you think if Karen can go through these bursting type deals each day long enough to survive the down periods do you think it has a shot at busting through the shear zone?? I see once it does shear drops to around 10kts.

If it survives, there's forecast to be a deep trof digging down the east U.S. coast early next week into a strong upper low near western Cuba. Strong SW winds await it across the western Caribbean and Bahamas. I don't see any good environment for redevelopment. Bones is slowly making his way to the microphone, but he'll wait for morning visible imagery first.

[chadtm80]

[deltadog03]

Ya, I think its about time to give up on old karen. I still will not yet though. I do see an ULL pushing SW. I guess it depends on timing if that can get deep enough to provide some vent. I really do think the season is all but over out east of 60W

[deltadog03]

Chad still looks like they all move W or WNW at the end. I don't really think there will be anything left, but who knows.

[cycloneye]

Quickscat from 5:38 PM.Shows the circulation well and below 16n.

[Normandy]

Ya, I think its about time to give up on old karen. I still will not yet though. I do see an ULL pushing SW. I guess it depends on timing if that can get deep enough to provide some vent. I really do think the season is all but over out east of 60W

Not not over....over for Cape Verde US strikers? Possibly. I still see 2-3 storms forming out there before its set and done....all fish though.

EDIT:
Cycloneye....yea thats DEF a closed low. FAR more impressive than I thought it was.

[deltadog03]

Thanks for posting that...Still is closed, but looks like it is starting to elongate....

[wxman57]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBds100.png

Quickscat from 5:38 PM.Shows the circulation well and below 16n.

It also shows it opening up with the strongest winds well-removed from the center, a sign of dissipation. Zoom in on the image and all you see are 5 to 20kt winds within 100 miles of the center. All barbs are light blue and blue, only a couple of green wind barbs (15-20 kts). Strongest winds are about 150 miles from the center on that image.

[curtadams]

Couple of things:
1) Karen (such as she is) is definitely with the NW blob. The quickscat center is just south of that blob. For some reason (perhaps her size) it's a little easier to see things on the Central Atlantic loop and that matches the quickscat.
2) Highest winds, as usual, are associated with the convection. The convection is near the storm-relative center, which is north of the earth-relative center. I don't think that makes her non-tropical or an open wave.
3) If you look at the motion on the Central Atlantic loop it's clear that Karen is now moving *south* of due west (quite a change from this morning!) which is bad for her future existence since she's going to be in the shear indefintely.