Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Cyclenall]

I'm pretty sure it has been . . . it might not have been quite so easily accessible, but their storm wallets and archived recon data back to 1989, along with other weird little sets of data, have been available via their public FTP server for quite some time. I think they may have just brought some of it out to the public end of the site when they moved their servers from "nhc.noaa.gov" to "tpc.ncep.noaa.gov" over the winter.

I had this idea in my mind that they existed but were not accessible to the general public via the internet and that the NHC had all that "stuff" stashed away somewhere. I then remember hearing JB talk about it on a radio interview and how neat it was. Then just this year I found it was "out there". Now I see it's on the NHC site itself with the FTP server.

[WindRunner]

If you want to look around more, try going to ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/ - I think that's the right link. All of the ATCF files (synoptic hour fixes, dozens of models) and detailed SHIPS output are among the many fun things they have there . . . just look around a little and have fun with it.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the long range models, it does look like a situation that, we'll all have to closely monitor. According to the Euro, it's approximately 240 hours out. The Euro, as well as other models, (Nogaps/Ukmet/GFS/GFDL/HRWF/CMC) show movement back to the west, and a mid level ridge building in. It's all going to be timing, but it appears as though Karen will suffer for the next 72 hours, then restrengthen as the trouginess pulls out. One thing is for sure, is that all the models build a ridge in, regardless of her intensity @ that time.

Even if she weakens, the system is so large that... I would expect at least some part of this redevelop down the road.



I am going to take this as a warning and start adding to my list of items I would need, if I had to go without.

[wxmann_91]

Are right, here are basically my thoughts

1) I do expect this to weaken drastically, BUT survive for the next 5 days as some sort of entity (in other words, it won't just shear out into a remnant low). I think I've already elaborated enough on the position of the storm relative to the jet enhancing convection.

2) I am NOT sure that after surviving, it will reintensify big time (in other words, >Cat 1 hurricane). It's possible but it will depend on if an upper high can build over Karen. Given the models' tendency to lift out UL's too quick, and given that there's still remnant upper level vorticity out there, ULL's are going to rule the roost (similar to Aug 2006).

3) I do not expect this to make landfall in the US. Euro has been inconsistent in trough/ridge placement. A strong Pacific jet stream slamming into the western U.S. will cause the pattern to be rather progressive, meaning that a long-lasting ridge necessary to drive Karen westward would be hard to find. Also, climo can't be ignored.

[KWT]

Its hard to say what it''ll do after the shear, the models do seem to restrengthen this system pretty readily again once past that shear, the SHIPS are slightly slower which seesm more reasonable. Does look like the chances of a USA threat is increasing as time goes along, esp the longer it takes to gain major latitude, the ridge will rebuild and send this system W, I'm not sure it'll be quite as potent as the models prog but even at this time of year you can get 20-30 degrees of due west movement if a strong upper high builds to the north.

[SouthFloridawx]

The second trough is going to be the timing, considering the system survives the next 48-72 Hours. First lets see if she can survive the Sheer. Also, GFS looks like it hangs the second trough up in the west for a little while.

[Scorpion]

Wow! I cannot imagine a hurricane hitting Florida from the west in October. Every major model is depicting a turn to the west as well. This is pretty interesting to say the least.

[Vortex]

00Z Euro will be out shortly

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS has a system, of unlike intensity, but shows an area of low pressure... where the 12Z Euro does. Lets see what the 00Z comes out with. I hope it comes out soon, cause I'm tired.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_240l.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

The 00Z Euro changed it's tune a little, but still with the westward motion. Turns this thing into a monster...

[KWT]

Suggests a NE USA threat IMO...

[Vortex]

something is not right with this run..Towards the end its moving sw towards PR then jumps back NE about 300 miles in 12 hrs...

[vegastar]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 280857
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KAREN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE LAST
SIX HOURS...AND THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY
OBSCURED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS WEAKENED. LATEST CONVENTIONAL
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE
INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. CURRENT DVORAK
INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 40 KT.

AS A RESULT OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
AN UNCERTAIN 290/9. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. IN 48-72 HOURS...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THE TROUGH
WILL HAVE ON KAREN. BY DAY 4...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL RELOCATION...AND
FOLLOWS MOST CLOSELY WITH THE GFDL AND GFS GUIDANCE.

THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. ONCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF KAREN... THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RELAX AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH RETURNS. IF KAREN IS
ABLE TO SURVIVE THE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS... RESTRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. TAKING A BLEND OF THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE YIELDS THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY AT THE LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.1N 49.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 52.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 17.3N 53.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 18.5N 55.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 56.4W 40 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 22.0N 57.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

There she is,trying to survive.

[Meso]

Going to have to be very lucky to come out alive of this though

[Gustywind]

Going to have to be very lucky to come out alive of this though
hummmm....yeah very hope that is well untrained and has strong the legs to pass this big hurdle
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
very strong shear....

[cycloneye]

Floater loop

If you look closely at the visible loop,in the past few hours,is moving NE.

[JonathanBelles]

Floater loop

If you look closely at the visible loop,in the past few hours,is moving NE.

It looks like NNE to me, but how did it start going that way?

[cycloneye]

Maybe is doing a mini loop.