Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

The NHC almost had to skip TS status!

I don't think any storm has ever gone straight from TD to hurricane in one advisory...

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 271806
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1800 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.5W AT 27/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.5W AT 27/1800Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 95.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.3N 96.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 99.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 95.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


162
WTNT43 KNHC 271818
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
200 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS JUST TO UPGRADE THE
INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM
LORENZO. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS INDICATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1800Z 20.5N 95.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 20.4N 96.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 20.3N 96.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1200Z 21.0N 99.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tolakram]

Two for two in unexpected strengthening in the GOM. I hope some constructive criticism in the off season will lead to improvements.

[CrazyC83]

Still only a TS warning and only predicting 55 kt. I think that is WAY too conservative. I'd have a Hurricane Warning up and I think this will easily becoming a hurricane, perhaps later this afternoon or this evening.

[RL3AO]

Wow! NHC is really conservative. Are they trying to save face?

[CrazyC83]

Wow! NHC is really conservative. Are they trying to save face?

I'm not sure! Those in the Tropical Storm Warning area should think of this as a Hurricane Warning.

[HurricaneRobert]

So it's going to be another midget hurricane? I hope we at least get a visible satellite view of it.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271809
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 23 20070927
180100 1955N 09511W 9184 00831 0099 +212 +179 187024 025 026 000 00
180130 1957N 09512W 8973 01036 0104 +199 +171 196028 033 028 000 00
180200 1958N 09514W 8863 01143 0101 +190 +166 203033 034 029 000 00
180230 1959N 09515W 8794 01211 0104 +181 +168 201034 036 029 000 00
180300 2000N 09516W 8744 01256 0107 +172 +169 195032 035 030 000 00
180330 2002N 09518W 8715 01286 0107 +165 +165 208032 034 029 001 03
180400 2003N 09519W 8442 01554 0100 +160 +160 233038 041 032 000 03
180430 2004N 09520W 8419 01577 0099 +158 +158 231041 042 032 000 00
180500 2005N 09521W 8421 01574 0099 +155 +155 230042 042 033 000 00
180530 2006N 09522W 8437 01555 0098 +155 +155 236043 045 034 001 00
180600 2007N 09523W 8420 01569 0095 +153 +153 237043 045 036 000 00
180630 2008N 09525W 8429 01558 0090 +156 +156 228048 049 037 001 00
180700 2009N 09526W 8434 01548 0079 +164 +160 225049 049 038 000 00
180730 2011N 09527W 8433 01544 0069 +173 +158 222046 048 043 001 00
180800 2012N 09528W 8432 01540 0058 +183 +157 221050 052 046 002 00
180830 2013N 09529W 8422 01548 0048 +196 +150 219050 052 047 003 00
180900 2014N 09531W 8431 01536 0047 +193 +159 218046 047 052 005 00
180930 2015N 09532W 8430 01536 0042 +196 +145 209044 045 054 004 00
181000 2016N 09533W 8423 01540 0033 +206 +126 199042 044 055 004 00
181030 2018N 09535W 8436 01521 0029 +208 +139 199045 049 060 005 03
$$

Now the pressure is tumbling and they are not in the center yet. 60 kt SFMR, 52 kt FL

[WmE]

Wow! NHC is really conservative. Are they trying to save face?

I'm not sure! Those in the Tropical Storm Warning area should think of this as a Hurricane Warning.

Well I'd go with hurricane watches. This certainly has the potential to become a hurricane if it isn't already one. (With the high pressure I'm not so sure.)

[CrazyC83]

So it's going to be another midget hurricane? I hope we at least get a visible satellite view of it.

Most likely. I expect this to at least get to 70-75 kt, and Cat 2 is very possible. Even a major hurricane is not unrealistic if this trend continues.

[RL3AO]

60mph 1004 mb...I've never seen that but the hunters are finding much lower pressures now.

[cpdaman]

looks like recon got in there in time. lol just in time to warn people

but seriously it is a good thing and (savior) that there was NE wind shear otherwise this could have really gone "boom boom"

[RL3AO]

Maybe Mexico hasn't had time to upgrade to hurricane warnings?

But I guess they won't because the NHC is forecasting 55kt.

[JonathanBelles]

Maybe Mexico hasn't had time to upgrade to hurricane warnings?

Thats what I am thinking. I think it may be a watch first however.

[MiamiensisWx]

No hurricane watch?! UGH. I certainly hope the TPC made a recommendation for a watch along mainland MX. Additionally, the pressure is lower than ~1004 mb. I think the advisory should have been delayed until they analyzed the most recent reconnaissance data that supports higher winds, too. Do you think you'll forfeit your trust in the NHC if this system intensifies to a hurricane before landfall? Their Humberto performance with respect to foresight (no hurricane watch despite their language in the discussion) was slightly disturbing. I can see some shear, so the TPC could make a great call, but I think it may be prudent to "play it safely" and recommend a hurricane watch.

I think the current pressure is near ~1001 mb.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271819
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 24 20070927
181100 2018N 09536W 8425 01532 0025 +211 +144 211041 045 066 011 03
181130 2019N 09538W 8435 01519 0030 +198 +176 235037 040 066 027 03
181200 2018N 09539W 8432 01523 0055 +157 +157 222037 044 069 038 03
181230 2018N 09541W 8423 01541 0073 +145 +145 251028 034 068 046 05
181300 2019N 09542W 8417 01557 9990 +147 +999 265021 024 064 051 05
181330 2020N 09543W 8433 01532 9990 +148 +999 290008 011 051 046 05
181400 2022N 09543W 8472 01487 0063 +150 +150 357014 016 044 032 05
181430 2023N 09544W 8408 01547 0061 +147 +147 024014 017 040 021 00
181500 2025N 09544W 8467 01485 0048 +159 +159 034017 021 035 010 00
181530 2026N 09544W 8405 01550 0028 +192 +176 045010 017 031 005 00
181600 2028N 09545W 8444 01512 0015 +220 +158 017003 009 032 003 00
181630 2030N 09545W 8413 01541 0019 +216 +153 025011 013 034 001 00
181700 2031N 09545W 8437 01517 0019 +218 +148 041018 019 033 000 03
181730 2032N 09545W 8421 01537 0020 +217 +148 049013 015 999 999 03
181800 2032N 09543W 8430 01523 0017 +215 +154 027007 009 999 999 03
181830 2030N 09543W 8424 01523 0012 +219 +150 291007 009 032 000 00
181900 2029N 09542W 8445 01506 0016 +215 +154 293005 010 030 000 00
181930 2027N 09542W 8430 01524 0022 +206 +163 023005 012 999 999 03
182000 2027N 09540W 8435 01517 0026 +197 +169 174009 021 999 999 03
182030 2029N 09540W 8438 01515 0014 +219 +154 165028 041 999 999 03
$$

Pressure 1001mb. SFMR data suspect.

[RL3AO]

You can tell this system is not near the U.S. can't you Miami?

[CrazyC83]

Maybe Mexico hasn't had time to upgrade to hurricane warnings?

But I guess they won't because the NHC is forecasting 55kt.

That 55 kt is way too conservative of an estimate IMO, it may be that or higher as we speak...I'm predicting at least 70 kt, possibly much higher.

I think this is Humberto's Mexican brother...

[WindRunner]

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprsied to see a change in intenstiy forecast philosophy come 11pm.

[MiamiensisWx]

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Huh?! That statement contradicts the TPC's mission and their acknowledgment about the inaccuracies of intensity estimates.