Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[WindRunner]

"conditions ARE ripe."

Yep, we sure aren't done yet . . . if it's anything like Humberto, and it should be, we've still got probably 30-40kts more of strengthening to do before landfall . . .

I'd upgrade to Hurricane Warnings on the coast...

My guess: no 1 pm advisory, but instead a 1:15 pm special advisory...

If they don't, then we're definately going to hear some uproar both on this board and hopefully in the media. Of course, coordination with the Mexicans takes a little more time than with the WFOs, so that might delay the advisory, but still . . . wow . . .

[Cyclenall]

Does this count for explosive deepening? I say YES. Someone make more loops of this!

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271749
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20070927
174100 1948N 09537W 9595 00437 0088 +224 +224 206028 028 032 004 00
174130 1946N 09535W 9675 00376 0100 +228 +228 204028 029 030 005 00
174200 1944N 09535W 9803 00258 0098 +230 +230 207024 026 030 005 00
174230 1943N 09534W 9827 00237 0097 +233 +233 207024 025 029 003 00
174300 1942N 09533W 9789 00271 0097 +231 +231 208025 027 029 002 03
174330 1941N 09532W 9764 00293 0097 +237 +234 204027 028 025 002 03
174400 1941N 09530W 9771 00288 0096 +246 +234 203029 030 026 000 03
174430 1941N 09528W 9767 00291 0096 +246 +237 203029 030 026 000 00
174500 1941N 09526W 9769 00289 0096 +239 +239 205026 026 025 000 00
174530 1941N 09525W 9774 00285 0097 +237 +237 209024 026 024 000 00
174600 1941N 09523W 9769 00291 0098 +235 +235 214022 024 023 000 00
174630 1941N 09521W 9774 00285 0097 +237 +237 210024 025 024 000 00
174700 1940N 09520W 9767 00292 0097 +236 +236 210023 025 023 000 00
174730 1940N 09518W 9769 00290 0098 +236 +236 210022 023 022 000 00
174800 1940N 09516W 9771 00289 0099 +230 +230 213020 021 025 000 00
174830 1940N 09514W 9771 00290 0100 +230 +230 208019 020 024 000 00
174900 1940N 09513W 9771 00289 0100 +230 +230 207020 021 024 000 00
174930 1940N 09511W 9769 00292 0100 +230 +230 207019 019 024 000 00
175000 1940N 09509W 9769 00292 0100 +230 +230 206018 019 024 000 00
175030 1940N 09508W 9770 00291 0101 +230 +230 205018 019 024 000 00
$$

Fairly compact storm.

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 271750
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132007
A. 27/17:23:10Z
B. 20 deg 27 min N
095 deg 39 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 034 deg 39 nm
F. 150 deg 035 kt
G. 033 deg 038 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 23 C/ 305 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF306 0513A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 64 KT SW QUAD 17:31:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 021 / 8NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

No outbound correction is in as of yet, hence the lack of mention of the 67kt SFMR (I hope . . .)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is SO AWESOME how a TD goes to a Hurricane!!!

I would love to witness this in person (not wanting
damage LOL)!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wish I were sitting under this thing undergoing RI!!!

This is so insanely wild!!!!!

[CrazyC83]

This is SO AWESOME how a TD goes to a Hurricane!!!

I would love to witness this in person (not wanting
damage LOL)!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wish I were sitting under this thing undergoing RI!!!

This is so insanely wild!!!!!

That is if the NHC picks up on it. They might go conservative though, but still quite amazing. The 1004mb pressure does not support anything near 65 kt.

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 271753
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007


DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM LORENZO
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND WILL REPLACE THE 1 PM CDT INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[chadtm80]

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM LORENZO
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND WILL REPLACE THE 1 PM CDT INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 271753
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007


DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM LORENZO
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND WILL REPLACE THE 1 PM CDT INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

YES!!!! HELLLLOOOOO LORENZOOO BABY!!!!!!

ONE more storm on the list
12/4/2
YEEHAW!!!!!

[WindRunner]

It'll be interesting to hear why only 50kts . . . expecially when SFMR found 3-4 minutes of 60kts+ on SFMR . . .

[WmE]

That's conservative.

[CrazyC83]

It'll be interesting to hear why only 50kts . . . expecially when SFMR found 3-4 minutes of 60kts+ on SFMR . . .

Probably being conservative due to shock. The pressure does not support 65 kt even though the SFMR does and the FL supports at least 60 kt...

[Brent]

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM LORENZO
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND WILL REPLACE THE 1 PM CDT INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

WHOA.

[WindRunner]

It'll be interesting to hear why only 50kts . . . expecially when SFMR found 3-4 minutes of 60kts+ on SFMR . . .

Probably being conservative due to shock. The pressure does not support 65 kt even though the SFMR does and the FL supports at least 60 kt...

It's also Lixion . . . I realized that after I posted, so I'm not quite as surprised as I was before . . .

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271759
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20070927
175100 1940N 09506W 9771 00291 0101 +231 +231 204017 017 023 000 00
175130 1940N 09506W 9771 00291 0101 +232 +232 204016 017 022 000 00
175200 1940N 09506W 9771 00291 0100 +234 +234 204016 016 023 000 00
175230 1940N 09501W 9771 00291 0101 +235 +235 204016 017 022 001 00
175300 1940N 09459W 9774 00288 0101 +235 +232 204016 017 025 000 00
175330 1940N 09457W 9773 00289 0101 +235 +232 203015 016 024 000 00
175400 1940N 09456W 9769 00294 0102 +235 +234 204014 016 022 000 03
175430 1941N 09455W 9764 00298 0101 +235 +234 194014 015 999 999 03
175500 1942N 09456W 9776 00286 0101 +235 +234 187012 012 022 000 03
175530 1943N 09457W 9769 00293 0101 +235 +233 185013 014 023 000 00
175600 1944N 09459W 9771 00291 0100 +235 +235 184013 014 023 000 00
175630 1945N 09500W 9769 00293 0100 +234 +234 184013 013 024 000 00
175700 1946N 09501W 9768 00292 0100 +234 +234 183015 016 024 000 00
175730 1947N 09502W 9771 00290 0099 +234 +234 180016 017 024 000 00
175800 1948N 09504W 9769 00290 0099 +231 +231 178015 016 025 000 00
175830 1950N 09505W 9769 00291 0098 +232 +232 176018 018 026 000 00
175900 1951N 09506W 9770 00289 0098 +233 +230 180018 019 025 000 00
175930 1952N 09507W 9771 00287 0097 +233 +231 185017 017 026 000 03
180000 1953N 09509W 9556 00471 0088 +225 +217 183022 025 024 000 03
180030 1954N 09510W 9373 00648 0092 +225 +189 182023 025 026 000 00
$$

[P.K.]

It'll be interesting to hear why only 50kts . . . expecially when SFMR found 3-4 minutes of 60kts+ on SFMR . . .

Well it looks pretty much in line with the standard reduction from FL for the height but as you say the SFMR is a fair bit higher than that would say.

[CrazyC83]

I would have gone 60 kt. Not quite confident enough to pull the big trigger, but the data supports at least that.

[PTrackerLA]

After having not looked at TD #13 all day, when I saw the sat I said this has to be Lorenzo by now. Sure enough, there goes another name!

[RL3AO]

The NHC almost had to skip TS status!