Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270654
AF301 0413A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20070927
064630 2126N 09540W 9653 00407 0111 +226 +210 043021 024 999 999 03
064700 2127N 09541W 9655 00405 0111 +226 +208 042024 025 999 999 03
064730 2128N 09542W 9653 00408 0112 +228 +200 044025 025 999 999 03
064800 2129N 09543W 9653 00409 0113 +228 +206 041025 026 999 999 03
064830 2129N 09545W 9655 00407 0115 +218 +210 036029 030 999 999 03
064900 2128N 09547W 9654 00409 0116 +218 +214 033027 028 999 999 03
064930 2127N 09548W 9654 00409 0116 +216 +216 025028 030 999 999 03
065000 2126N 09549W 9651 00411 0117 +212 +212 029025 027 999 999 03
065030 2124N 09549W 9655 00407 0114 +222 +216 029027 028 999 999 03
065100 2122N 09549W 9651 00409 0113 +222 +216 023027 028 999 999 03
065130 2120N 09549W 9644 00415 0113 +220 +218 020028 029 999 999 03
065200 2118N 09549W 9655 00406 0113 +226 +208 024027 028 999 999 03
065230 2116N 09549W 9654 00407 0113 +224 +214 015027 027 999 999 03
065300 2114N 09549W 9654 00406 0113 +216 +216 015027 027 999 999 03
065330 2112N 09549W 9655 00405 0113 +216 +216 013028 028 999 999 03
065400 2110N 09549W 9655 00406 0113 +218 +218 004029 029 999 999 03
065430 2108N 09549W 9654 00407 0113 +220 +216 003027 027 999 999 03
065500 2106N 09549W 9655 00405 0112 +220 +220 001028 028 999 999 03
065530 2104N 09549W 9654 00407 0113 +220 +220 359028 028 999 999 03
065600 2102N 09549W 9654 00406 0112 +220 +220 358028 028 999 999 03
$$

Flight-level maximum of 30 knots to the north of the center.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270704
AF301 0413A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20070927
065630 2100N 09549W 9655 00405 0111 +228 +214 357029 030 999 999 03
065700 2058N 09549W 9655 00405 0111 +224 +216 356029 030 999 999 03
065730 2056N 09549W 9654 00407 0112 +226 +214 356030 030 999 999 03
065800 2054N 09549W 9655 00406 0112 +230 +210 356028 029 999 999 03
065830 2052N 09549W 9656 00405 0112 +232 +210 354029 029 999 999 03
065900 2049N 09549W 9654 00407 0111 +234 +206 350026 027 999 999 03
065930 2047N 09549W 9654 00408 0113 +232 +208 344025 026 999 999 03
070000 2045N 09549W 9655 00407 0113 +226 +222 339024 024 999 999 03
070030 2043N 09549W 9656 00406 0113 +226 +220 337022 024 999 999 03
070100 2041N 09549W 9659 00403 0114 +222 +218 330020 020 999 999 03
070130 2040N 09549W 9662 00399 0112 +224 +212 331020 020 999 999 03
070200 2038N 09549W 9653 00407 0112 +222 +212 333020 021 999 999 03
070230 2036N 09550W 9655 00405 0112 +220 +220 326019 019 999 999 03
070300 2034N 09550W 9654 00407 0113 +222 +214 325019 020 999 999 03
070330 2033N 09550W 9654 00407 0113 +220 +210 315020 020 999 999 03
070400 2031N 09550W 9654 00407 0113 +218 +216 312019 020 999 999 03
070430 2029N 09550W 9654 00408 0115 +216 +216 308021 021 999 999 03
070500 2028N 09550W 9653 00409 0114 +220 +214 308023 024 999 999 03
070530 2026N 09550W 9655 00407 0115 +220 +212 308025 025 999 999 03
070600 2024N 09550W 9653 00410 0116 +220 +210 303023 025 999 999 03
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Some low level convergents around 5-8 on cimss. Healthy upper level divergents. In convection is coming back...

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270714
AF301 0413A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20070927
070630 2023N 09550W 9655 00408 0117 +214 +214 298023 024 999 999 03
070700 2021N 09550W 9654 00410 0117 +216 +212 299024 024 999 999 03
070730 2019N 09550W 9654 00411 0118 +218 +210 305022 022 999 999 03
070800 2018N 09550W 9654 00411 0118 +222 +202 303022 022 999 999 03
070830 2016N 09550W 9654 00411 0117 +226 +200 311021 021 999 999 03
070900 2015N 09550W 9654 00411 0118 +220 +210 312022 022 999 999 03
070930 2013N 09550W 9654 00412 0120 +212 +212 310023 023 999 999 03
071000 2012N 09548W 9654 00412 0120 +216 +216 306024 024 999 999 03
071030 2012N 09547W 9655 00409 0117 +216 +216 307023 023 999 999 03
071100 2012N 09545W 9654 00411 0119 +216 +210 309021 021 999 999 03
071130 2013N 09544W 9655 00409 0118 +212 +212 302019 021 999 999 03
071200 2014N 09542W 9650 00413 0120 +202 +202 285017 019 999 999 03
071230 2014N 09540W 9655 00409 0118 +210 +210 299022 023 999 999 03
071300 2014N 09538W 9650 00413 0119 +208 +208 289020 023 999 999 03
071330 2015N 09537W 9657 00406 0117 +212 +212 297020 020 999 999 03
071400 2016N 09536W 9654 00407 0115 +208 +208 296021 021 999 999 03
071430 2017N 09534W 9654 00406 0115 +206 +206 295020 022 999 999 03
071500 2018N 09533W 9653 00406 0112 +214 +208 292022 022 999 999 03
071530 2019N 09532W 9655 00404 0113 +210 +210 282019 021 999 999 03
071600 2020N 09530W 9655 00403 0112 +206 +206 288018 020 999 999 03
$$

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270724
AF301 0413A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20070927
071630 2022N 09529W 9653 00404 0111 +206 +206 287020 022 999 999 03
071700 2023N 09528W 9654 00401 0108 +212 +212 283020 021 999 999 03
071730 2024N 09526W 9654 00400 0106 +216 +210 283019 020 999 999 03
071800 2025N 09525W 9654 00399 0105 +214 +210 286021 021 999 999 03
071830 2026N 09523W 9655 00397 0104 +216 +212 285023 024 999 999 03
071900 2027N 09522W 9653 00399 0103 +220 +208 286024 024 999 999 03
071930 2028N 09521W 9654 00396 0100 +224 +206 279021 023 999 999 03
072000 2029N 09519W 9655 00395 0101 +216 +216 273019 019 999 999 03
072030 2030N 09518W 9653 00396 0102 +204 +204 266019 020 999 999 03
072100 2031N 09517W 9655 00394 0102 +208 +208 265019 020 999 999 03
072130 2032N 09515W 9655 00393 0099 +218 +218 278015 017 999 999 03
072200 2033N 09514W 9654 00393 0097 +220 +212 288014 015 999 999 03
072230 2034N 09513W 9654 00392 0096 +220 +214 290014 014 999 999 03
072300 2036N 09512W 9653 00392 0095 +216 +216 282014 015 999 999 03
072330 2037N 09511W 9654 00390 0094 +216 +216 280015 015 999 999 03
072400 2038N 09510W 9655 00388 0093 +220 +210 290013 014 999 999 03
072430 2040N 09510W 9651 00390 0091 +220 +212 283013 013 999 999 03
072500 2041N 09509W 9655 00387 0092 +218 +214 288010 013 999 999 03
072530 2043N 09509W 9654 00388 0092 +220 +210 301007 008 999 999 03
072600 2044N 09508W 9654 00387 0090 +220 +216 309008 008 999 999 03
$$

Minimum extrapolated pressure of 1009.0 mb.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270734
AF301 0413A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20070927
072630 2046N 09508W 9654 00387 0090 +218 +218 308005 007 999 999 03
072700 2047N 09507W 9653 00387 0089 +220 +214 312002 002 999 999 03
072730 2049N 09506W 9654 00385 0088 +224 +210 327002 002 999 999 03
072800 2050N 09505W 9653 00386 0087 +224 +214 323002 003 999 999 03
072830 2051N 09505W 9656 00383 0088 +220 +220 288002 003 999 999 03
072900 2053N 09504W 9653 00386 0088 +220 +220 272003 003 999 999 03
072930 2054N 09502W 9644 00392 0087 +218 +218 231003 003 999 999 03
073000 2055N 09501W 9650 00388 0088 +218 +218 187006 008 999 999 03
073030 2056N 09500W 9655 00385 0090 +216 +216 159011 012 999 999 03
073100 2058N 09458W 9655 00385 0090 +216 +216 146014 015 999 999 03
073130 2059N 09457W 9654 00387 0091 +216 +216 148018 019 999 999 03
073200 2100N 09455W 9655 00388 0094 +214 +212 144020 021 999 999 03
073230 2102N 09454W 9654 00389 0093 +216 +214 141021 022 999 999 03
073300 2103N 09453W 9654 00390 0094 +216 +216 142021 022 999 999 03
073330 2104N 09451W 9654 00391 0095 +216 +216 140021 022 999 999 03
073400 2105N 09450W 9655 00391 0096 +218 +216 138022 022 999 999 03
073430 2107N 09449W 9655 00391 0096 +220 +218 138021 022 999 999 03
073500 2108N 09447W 9654 00393 0097 +220 +218 139023 024 999 999 03
073530 2109N 09446W 9656 00391 0097 +218 +218 140023 024 999 999 03
073600 2111N 09444W 9650 00397 0098 +222 +208 138025 025 999 999 03
$$

Wind shift; minimum extrapolated pressure of 1008.7 mb.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT12 KNHC 270739
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132007
A. 27/07:27:20Z
B. 20 deg 49 min N
095 deg 06 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 308 deg 024 kt
G. 228 deg 054 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 22 C/ 407 m
J. 22 C/ 407 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 1
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF301 0413A CYCLONE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 30 KT W QUAD 06:57:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270744
AF301 0413A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20070927
073630 2112N 09443W 9654 00394 0098 +226 +204 141026 026 999 999 03
073700 2113N 09441W 9656 00394 0100 +224 +202 137028 029 999 999 03
073730 2115N 09440W 9654 00396 0100 +224 +206 137032 033 999 999 03
073800 2116N 09439W 9655 00396 0101 +228 +202 138033 034 999 999 03
073830 2117N 09437W 9654 00398 0102 +224 +208 140034 035 999 999 03
073900 2119N 09436W 9655 00397 0102 +226 +208 138035 036 999 999 03
073930 2120N 09434W 9655 00397 0102 +224 +214 140034 036 999 999 03
074000 2121N 09433W 9653 00401 0104 +226 +222 137031 032 999 999 03
074030 2123N 09431W 9656 00399 0105 +228 +220 138031 031 999 999 03
074100 2124N 09430W 9654 00401 0105 +230 +216 140030 031 999 999 03
074130 2125N 09428W 9655 00401 0106 +230 +218 140029 030 999 999 03
074200 2127N 09427W 9655 00402 0107 +230 +220 143027 029 999 999 03
074230 2128N 09425W 9655 00403 0108 +230 +222 143027 027 999 999 03
074300 2129N 09424W 9655 00404 0109 +232 +222 142026 027 999 999 03
074330 2131N 09423W 9655 00404 0109 +230 +222 142026 026 999 999 03
074400 2132N 09421W 9654 00406 0110 +232 +226 137024 025 999 999 03
074430 2133N 09420W 9655 00405 0110 +234 +224 138024 024 999 999 03
074500 2135N 09418W 9654 00407 0111 +232 +226 138024 025 999 999 03
074530 2136N 09417W 9656 00406 0112 +236 +220 135024 024 999 999 03
074600 2137N 09415W 9654 00409 0113 +234 +220 137023 024 999 999 03
$$

Flight-level maximum of 36 knots to the north of the center.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

36 knots*1.15*.9=37 mph or just under tropical storm strength.

[dwsqos2]

The standard reduction factor for this altitude is quite a bit lower than 0.90.

000
URNT15 KNHC 270754
AF301 0413A CYCLONE HDOB 34 20070927
074630 2139N 09414W 9655 00408 0113 +236 +218 139023 023 999 999 03
074700 2140N 09412W 9573 00477 0107 +230 +218 138022 023 999 999 03
074730 2142N 09412W 9311 00725 0115 +212 +198 140026 027 999 999 03
074800 2144N 09412W 9027 00998 0120 +196 +184 134026 027 999 999 03
074830 2146N 09413W 8605 01410 0119 +172 +164 127027 028 999 999 03
074900 2148N 09414W 8198 01826 0120 +152 +140 126029 029 999 999 03
074930 2150N 09415W 7935 02106 0121 +140 +122 121029 029 999 999 03
075000 2152N 09415W 7701 02357 0115 +130 +110 121029 030 999 999 03
075030 2154N 09414W 7394 02702 0109 +118 +088 123026 028 999 999 03
075100 2156N 09414W 6957 03217 0113 +090 +062 114024 025 999 999 03
075130 2158N 09414W 6623 03632 0115 +068 +058 113023 024 999 999 03
075200 2159N 09414W 6369 03956 0108 +056 +030 121024 024 999 999 03
075230 2201N 09414W 6148 04245 0109 +038 +020 117023 023 999 999 03
075300 2203N 09413W 5964 04468 0081 +022 +022 126023 024 999 999 03
075330 2204N 09413W 5810 04675 0066 +014 +010 138024 025 999 999 03
075400 2206N 09413W 5630 04939 0065 +006 -017 138022 024 999 999 03
075430 2208N 09413W 5470 05178 0273 -003 -063 136020 020 999 999 03
075500 2210N 09412W 5305 05425 0291 -019 -083 125018 019 999 999 03
075530 2212N 09412W 5144 05674 0310 -035 -093 104013 014 999 999 03
075600 2213N 09412W 5001 05895 0323 -057 -089 096013 013 999 999 03
$$


Plane is ascending; mission is over.

[HURAKAN]

Coming back!

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

381
WTNT33 KNHC 271139
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
700 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN ORGANIZATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND
ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...
5 KM/HR. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF
VERACRUZ...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0513A CYCLONE
C. 27/1430Z
D. 20.3N 97.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[HURAKAN]

[chadtm80]

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 271429
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20070927
142100 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0145 +292 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
142130 3024N 08855W 0157 00000 0145 +289 +234 360000 000 999 999 23
142200 3024N 08856W 0157 00000 0144 +289 +234 360000 000 087 000 23
142230 3024N 08856W 0157 00000 0144 +287 +235 360000 000 087 000 20
142300 3024N 08856W 0155 00000 0144 +302 +236 360000 000 999 999 23
142330 3024N 08856W 0154 00000 0142 +300 +238 360000 000 999 999 23
142400 3024N 08856W 0155 00000 0143 +307 +237 360000 000 999 999 23
142430 3024N 08856W 0155 00000 0143 +307 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
142500 3024N 08856W 0155 00000 0143 +287 +218 360000 000 999 999 23
142530 3024N 08856W 0155 00000 0144 +299 +215 360000 000 999 999 23
142600 3024N 08856W 0155 00000 0144 +308 +220 360000 000 999 999 23
142630 3024N 08856W 0155 00000 0142 +295 +223 360000 000 999 999 23
142700 3024N 08856W 0149 00000 0142 +299 +227 360000 000 999 999 23
142730 3024N 08856W 0151 00000 0142 +265 +234 034001 003 087 000 23
142800 3025N 08855W 0086 00048 0145 +240 +239 030004 007 087 000 03
142830 3026N 08854W 9840 00275 0152 +236 +227 046001 002 999 999 03
142900 3027N 08853W 9601 00471 0139 +222 +210 085000 001 999 999 03
142930 3027N 08852W 9326 00736 0149 +204 +197 257002 003 999 999 03
143000 3026N 08851W 9010 01040 0164 +186 +172 272005 005 999 999 03
143030 3025N 08852W 8676 01366 0159 +165 +151 272004 005 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

197
WTNT43 KNHC 271438
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

DATA FROM THE ALVARADO RADAR IN MEXICO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...
SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STAY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT
ANY TIME. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL STORM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL BE IN THE DEPRESSION AROUND
18Z.

THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
REMAINS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FORCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DRIFT TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A
SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO.

THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
PRIMARILY OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 20.7N 95.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 20.4N 95.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 20.3N 96.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 97.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1200Z 21.0N 99.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

935
WTNT33 KNHC 271437
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE...EXPECTED TO BECOME A STORM
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA
TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES...325 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF
VERACRUZ...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.7 N...95.2 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 271439
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 02 20070927
143100 3024N 08853W 8302 01742 0160 +139 +137 248007 009 999 999 03
143130 3023N 08854W 7971 02087 0164 +117 +117 253010 010 999 999 03
143200 3021N 08855W 7724 02348 0162 +106 +063 259011 011 999 999 03
143230 3020N 08856W 7482 02614 0155 +105 -065 287008 010 999 999 03
143300 3019N 08858W 7259 02867 0148 +096 -087 330008 009 999 999 03
143330 3018N 08859W 7055 03106 0145 +079 +032 329007 007 999 999 03
143400 3016N 08900W 6830 03378 0153 +060 +015 305007 008 999 999 03
143430 3015N 08901W 6616 03642 0152 +048 -046 298010 011 999 999 03
143500 3014N 08903W 6417 03889 0140 +042 -040 292008 009 999 999 03
143530 3013N 08904W 6240 04119 0138 +029 -039 299010 011 027 000 03
143600 3011N 08905W 6099 04306 0138 +019 -041 289012 012 999 999 03
143630 3010N 08907W 5951 04474 0109 +007 -054 291012 012 999 999 03
143700 3009N 08908W 5795 04691 0106 -005 -063 279013 013 999 999 03
143730 3007N 08909W 5671 04861 0103 -013 -094 285012 013 006 003 03
143800 3006N 08911W 5561 05038 0105 -015 -131 298013 013 008 002 03
143830 3005N 08912W 5458 05184 0264 -023 -164 303015 016 037 000 03
143900 3003N 08913W 5290 05418 0266 -041 -154 293017 018 999 999 03
143930 3002N 08915W 5166 05615 0286 -053 -142 283022 023 999 999 03
144000 3001N 08916W 5075 05764 0299 -057 -188 282020 021 033 000 03
144030 2959N 08917W 4981 05902 0307 -063 -183 276020 021 999 999 03

[Sanibel]

Is that a pre-shore TS burst like the ones that happen frequently down there?