Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Cyclone1]

Reminds me of Larry that got driven south and never really got strong.

Meh kinda. Larry was much larger, and briefly became extratropical before re-gaining tropical characteristics hours before landfall. Larry was a weirdo.

[HeeBGBz]

Is that blow up over the Yucatan a part of 13?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like another TD that won't be upgraded. Science wise this season so far ranks below 2002. At least in ACE...The low level convergents is very low this season, also the shear is high. I think the low level convergents is one of the main differences from a 6-8 hurricane season and this 3 hurricane season. Do you think I'm right?

[srainhoutx]

It certainly has been the "year of the shear" in my humble opinion.

[Category 5]

Wind sheer or not, we've had two Category 5 Hurricanes, both made landfall as 5's. Something never done on record in a single season. Both of them caused severe damage and combined killed about 150 people.

And as for the ACE being below 2002, last I checked it's September 26th, we have 2 months left. The season is NOT over yet.

[CrazyC83]

There is hardly any shear around this system. It is just that the low level convergence is not helping this at all.

[americanrebel]

Another question that might make me sound stupid, but I'm just learning. What exactly is this ACE I keep hearing about?

[dwsqos2]

New mission taking off..

000
URNT15 KNHC 270234
AF301 0413A CYCLONE HDOB 02 20070927
022630 3013N 08906W 7528 02562 0138 +122 -075 218004 006 999 999 03
022700 3012N 08907W 7278 02843 0133 +108 -081 236006 007 999 999 03
022730 3011N 08908W 7057 03099 0128 +094 -071 294007 008 999 999 03
022800 3010N 08909W 6873 03316 0129 +074 +014 313010 011 999 999 03
022830 3008N 08911W 6639 03597 0121 +058 +010 281012 012 999 999 03
022900 3007N 08912W 6444 03843 0117 +050 -047 288015 016 999 999 03
022930 3006N 08913W 6265 04071 0109 +040 -093 299016 016 999 999 03
023000 3005N 08914W 6117 04265 0110 +028 -123 308015 015 999 999 03
023030 3003N 08916W 5965 04464 0107 +014 -137 307013 013 999 999 03
023100 3002N 08917W 5827 04651 0110 -001 -117 311013 014 999 999 03
023130 3001N 08918W 5700 04824 0112 -015 -103 311012 013 999 999 03
023200 2959N 08919W 5570 05005 0105 -025 -131 307013 013 999 999 03
023230 2958N 08921W 5443 05186 0244 -027 -141 305011 013 999 999 03
023300 2957N 08922W 5338 05337 0249 -039 -141 305011 012 999 999 03
023330 2955N 08923W 5225 05504 0256 -051 -171 312013 014 999 999 03
023400 2954N 08925W 5138 05634 0261 -059 -229 319018 021 999 999 03
023430 2953N 08926W 5036 05785 0264 -061 -175 311022 022 999 999 03
023500 2951N 08927W 4939 05935 0271 -065 -215 304020 021 999 999 03
023530 2950N 08929W 4870 06048 0280 -071 -227 309019 019 999 999 03
023600 2948N 08930W 4796 06163 0283 -081 -229 317020 021 999 999 03
$$

[americanrebel]

The question still hasn't been answered the blob over the Yucatan is it or is it not part of TD 13.

[tolakram]

Another question that might make me sound stupid, but I'm just learning. What exactly is this ACE I keep hearing about?

It's accumulated energy.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... tion.shtml

Counting storms has got to go away, it's a silly thing, the only thing that really matters is energy. That and I'm so sick of hearing year of shear and season over from people who obviously never followed the tropics until 2005.

jeepers

Oh, and this season is above normal as far as number of storms go at 11 and we aren't close to done. That included to very major cat 5's.

[americanrebel]

Greatly appreciate that.

[cycloneye]

906
WTNT43 KNHC 270249
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DEGRADED THIS
EVENING...WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
SMALL BAND OF MODEST CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30
KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 06Z.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED A SMALL LOOP...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 260/3...BASED MAINLY ON A 2315Z
MICROWAVE PASS. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST
TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER
EASTWARD IN THE MODEL RUNS...WHICH ALLOWS THE DEPRESSION TO ACQUIRE
SOME NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. NEARLY ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS ARE
EVEN FARTHER NORTH.

THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION IS ANTICYCLONIC AND
DIFLUENT...AND IT IS A LITTLE SURPRISING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED YET. THE UPPER-FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WITH THE
GFDL AND HWRF FORECASTING A LITTLE LESS DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL
MAKING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM.

THE NEW FORECAST BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 36 HOURS...NECESSITATING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT
THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 21.2N 94.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 21.1N 95.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 20.9N 95.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 20.9N 96.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 97.5W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0000Z 21.5N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[americanrebel]

So if I read that right, there is now a TS watch for Mexico. Even though this system has a chance of moving N. Sounds like THC is confused by this system, since there is some many things that are working in favor of this system, and it still hasn't improved.

[lrak]

it seems after watching and waiting for waves I've noticed that the convection each night on the peninsula comes off strong and the LLC drifts E towards it and the convection on the peninsula dies which fires up the LLC late in the morning and drifts E abit and never makes any progress towards it demise. Weh will it end? Tonight mabye?

[CrazyC83]

The NHC site has TD13 renamed as STORM_FULLNAME at the moment; maybe a sudden upgrade (even though I would assume they would wait for Recon)?

[JonathanBelles]

The NHC site has TD13 renamed as STORM_FULLNAME at the moment; maybe a sudden upgrade (even though I would assume they would wait for Recon)?

Ive never seen that before.

[RL3AO]

I saw that. Very weird.

[CrazyC83]

The NHC site has TD13 renamed as STORM_FULLNAME at the moment; maybe a sudden upgrade (even though I would assume they would wait for Recon)?

Ive never seen that before.

Me either. Could be some technical glitch...after all I don't think now is the time for an upgrade since no new data is available and advisories are now every 3 hours due to the watch now in effect.

[RL3AO]

YAY!!

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED A SMALL LOOP..

[srainhoutx]

it seems after watching and waiting for waves I've noticed that the convection each night on the peninsula comes off strong and the LLC drifts E towards it and the convection on the peninsula dies which fires up the LLC late in the morning and drifts E abit and never makes any progress towards it demise. Weh will it end? Tonight mabye?

Bingo. As we remember Hurricane Carla like senario was mentioned very early on by our Pro Mets with this system. Although Carla passed the Yucatan, it did basically stall and loop SSE of Matagorda Bay if I recall correctly.