Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

Last data supports the current intensity of 60 kt...to move up to Hurricane Karen would likely require FL winds of at least 72 kt.

[Cyclone1]

I know this is going to make me sound stupid. What is the the equation to figure KT to MPH?

1kt = 1.15mph

[americanrebel]

Because I'm figuring 58 KT is about 67 MPH, am I correct.

So that would figure the 70 MPH is pretty accurate.

[CrazyC83]

64 kt at flight level

That supports the current intensity as that is 58 kt at the surface.

[Cyclone1]

Because I'm figuring 58 KT is about 70 MPH, am I correct.

58kt = about 65mph

[Derek Ortt]

quick note... it is best not to include the extrapolations of the surface after highlighting the FL since we have SFMR... highest surface remains 53KT

[americanrebel]

Cyclone I was figuring without the equation, so after I got the equation I edited to the more accurate answer.

[CrazyC83]

The SFMR remains 53 kt though so that could make a blended 55 kt current intensity, although I would hold it at 60 kt personally right now.

To have Hurricane Karen, I would think we need at least 72 kt FL winds (or 64 kt on the SFMR).

[Thunder44]

Because I'm figuring 58 KT is about 70 MPH, am I correct.

58kt = about 65mph

58kt is exactly 66.7mph, which is closer to 65mph.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 262304
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 23 20070926
225500 1244N 04249W 6945 03199 0085 +078 +078 191060 064 045 011 00
225530 1245N 04247W 6952 03192 0081 +081 +081 196065 066 045 007 00
225600 1245N 04244W 6942 03209 0084 +081 +081 192062 063 043 006 00
225630 1245N 04242W 6936 03216 0089 +080 +080 191058 060 042 008 00
225700 1246N 04240W 6948 03206 0092 +080 +080 184051 056 046 009 00
225730 1246N 04238W 6961 03191 0095 +079 +079 183049 053 044 016 03
225800 1246N 04235W 6932 03212 0094 +067 +067 170045 048 049 022 00
225830 1247N 04233W 6977 03162 0092 +074 +074 182055 058 049 015 00
225900 1247N 04231W 6981 03164 0097 +076 +076 182059 060 049 007 00
225930 1247N 04229W 6970 03181 0100 +076 +076 185062 063 046 004 00
230000 1247N 04227W 6966 03188 0101 +078 +078 183064 065 045 002 00
230030 1248N 04225W 6967 03191 0109 +075 +075 177062 064 999 999 03
230100 1249N 04223W 6965 03194 0112 +074 +074 169056 058 999 999 03
230130 1252N 04223W 6968 03191 0104 +081 +081 165056 057 999 999 03
230200 1254N 04224W 6967 03192 0111 +076 +076 162056 057 042 004 00
230230 1256N 04225W 6963 03196 0116 +073 +073 161056 058 040 005 00
230300 1259N 04226W 6966 03193 0110 +076 +076 155056 058 040 005 00
230330 1301N 04227W 6967 03190 0100 +082 +082 149060 060 040 005 00
230400 1303N 04229W 6964 03194 0109 +076 +076 148061 062 042 005 00
230430 1305N 04230W 6967 03189 0111 +074 +074 146068 069 041 004 00

69 kt FL

[mightyerick]

CrazyC83, can you tell me what do you think about tropical activity in Octuber? Please!!!
Do you think that we are in the peak of this season, or we gonna have a 2005-like peak on Octuber???

[Derek Ortt]

recon center is at 12.8N and 44.3W. It is about 20-30NM west of the convection

We have an exposed center

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, can you tell me what do you think about tropical activity in Octuber? Please!!!
Do you think that we are in the peak of this season, or we gonna have a 2005-like peak on Octuber???

Not sure about that much of one, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a fairly active October...

[Thunder44]

They just found max FL winds of 69kts with supports. They have just got into the NE Quad so it will be interesting to see if next set has higher winds.

[Cyclone1]

recon center is at 12.8N and 44.3W. It is about 20-30NM west of the convection

We have an exposed center

THE BEGINNING OF THE ENDING

By no means is this the end. It's just... a hindrance. It's got it's whole life ahead of it.

[americanrebel]

mighty, how can you say that. there is no way this is going to die anytime soon.

[Derek Ortt]

they've been in the NE quad... check where the center is compared to the convection... the center is about 20-30NM west of the convective activity

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 262314
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 24 20070926
230500 1307N 04231W 6963 03198 0112 +075 +075 151062 063 040 004 00
230530 1310N 04233W 6963 03198 0107 +078 +078 159059 060 042 005 00
230600 1312N 04234W 6966 03193 0106 +9 +079 159059 060 041 005 00
230630 1314N 04236W 6967 03192 0110 +076 +076 158060 061 041 007 00
230700 1316N 04237W 6967 03191 0116 +071 +071 154059 061 040 009 00
230730 1318N 04239W 6966 03192 0113 +073 +073 152055 056 039 009 00
230800 1321N 04240W 6964 03197 0111 +076 +076 151049 052 035 008 00
230830 1323N 04242W 6966 03194 0105 +080 +080 153050 052 034 007 00
230900 1325N 04243W 6968 03192 0101 +083 +083 145059 062 034 007 00
230930 1327N 04245W 6963 03198 0113 +074 +074 143053 055 037 006 00
231000 1329N 04246W 6966 03196 0115 +074 +074 142048 050 039 009 00
231030 1331N 04248W 6963 03199 0120 +070 +070 132051 052 040 009 00
231100 1333N 04249W 6966 03196 0116 +073 +073 132053 054 039 009 00
231130 1335N 04251W 6966 03197 0115 +074 +074 133053 054 038 011 00
231200 1337N 04252W 6963 03200 0118 +073 +073 130057 059 041 009 00
231230 1339N 04253W 6962 03202 0119 +073 +073 124056 058 040 019 00
231300 1341N 04255W 6975 03185 0113 +075 +075 130062 066 039 013 00
231330 1344N 04256W 6963 03200 0116 +075 +075 128055 056 033 008 00
231400 1346N 04258W 6958 03208 0121 +071 +071 124053 055 035 008 00
231430 1348N 04259W 6957 03207 0117 +074 +074 131054 055 036 009 00

Karen definitely has a large wind field...

[Evil Jeremy]

exposed? not good. As I said earlier, if Karen is weak, it will move more westward.

Could this be what the GFDL is showing by weakening Karen back into a wave?

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS out on the sfwmd plot (called the AVNO there), showing a slow and westward path:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_12.gif