Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop

Look yourself at the loop and look closely what GFS does with Karen.

[chris_fit]

12z GFS Loop

Look yourself at the loop and look closely what GFS does with Karen.

His computer doesn't support JAVA

[gatorcane]

can somebody post an image instead of a loop. My computer also has problems with it.

I want to see where the GFS puts Karen on this more westward track.

[skysummit]

If that GFS is correct, we'll be dealing with Karen for a very, very long time. It still has her sitting east of the Bahamas in 16 DAYS!

[DESTRUCTION5]

can somebody post an image instead of a loop. My computer also has problems with it.

I want to see where the GFS puts Karen on this more westward track.

Puts it close to the SE Bahamas but then Jerks it due east in an absolutley impossible senario..

[chris_fit]

Hmmm stops loading for me now after 12 images....

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

Makes a close call to the Leewards.

[Gustywind]

12z CMC

Makes a close call to the Leewards.

yeah....

[skysummit]

323
WHXX04 KWBC 261728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM KAREN 12L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.6 42.5 285./11.1
6 12.0 43.6 287./11.3
12 12.4 44.6 293./10.8
18 13.1 45.8 299./13.0
24 13.9 46.7 314./12.5
30 14.8 47.9 305./13.8
36 15.1 48.9 287./10.7
42 15.4 49.9 291./ 9.7
48 15.8 50.6 294./ 7.8
54 16.1 51.3 296./ 7.6
60 16.4 51.8 298./ 5.9
66 16.9 52.5 306./ 7.9
72 17.5 53.4 304./10.9
78 18.1 54.6 297./12.3
84 18.5 55.5 296./ 9.7
90 18.9 56.1 298./ 6.4
96 19.3 56.7 301./ 7.3
102 19.8 57.1 323./ 6.7
108 20.2 57.3 339./ 3.8
114 20.4 58.1 284./ 7.8
120 20.5 58.3 289./ 2.3
126 20.6 59.1 281./ 7.3

[cycloneye]

Sky,that is more west.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thats PR west!

[deltadog03]

yes that is considerably more west from yesterday. and even more west from today.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Sky,that is more west.

indeed models continue to trend west...interesting what the NHC cone will do at 5pm EST

Karen may indeed impact the Leewards and enter the Hebert box.

......

[Thunder44]

12z CMC

Makes a close call to the Leewards.

yeah....

It's not that close. The models have shifted to the west but still show the storm moving well NE of the Leeward Islands.

[gatorcane]

Folks that is WAY west...

Look where 20.6 59.1 is....and GFDL has it moving West to WNW....

[skysummit]

Yea, may may indeed see a west shift in the forecast track later tonight, if not by this evening.

[gatorcane]

12z CMC

Makes a close call to the Leewards.

yeah....

It's not that close. The models have shifted to the west but still show the storm moving well NE of the Leeward Islands.

Huh? Nope right through the Hebert box just north of the Leewards and heading 280...WEst.

[cycloneye]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.09.2007



TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 42.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.09.2007 11.7N 42.0W MODERATE

00UTC 27.09.2007 12.7N 43.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 27.09.2007 13.9N 45.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.09.2007 15.2N 47.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.09.2007 16.5N 49.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.09.2007 17.4N 51.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.09.2007 18.1N 52.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.09.2007 18.9N 53.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.09.2007 19.8N 55.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.10.2007 20.4N 56.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.10.2007 20.9N 57.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.10.2007 21.9N 58.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.10.2007 23.0N 60.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12z UKMET reaches 60w but well north of the Leewards.

[chris_fit]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Karen will need to be watched closely. That is a pretty
significant western shift.