Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[gatorcane]

Yes the Euro REALLY bothers me. It does bend this system back W to WSW under a monster western Atlantic ridge that builds in.

No way this is fishing, at least yet.

The Euro has been nearly perfect this year with its tracks.

UKMET and CMC also bending west now....some models take this towards the Bahamas in the long-term

NHC cone has bent west some but they will wait for a trend and they don't want to scare people by really bending it west.

[wxman57]

12Z model guidance has 11.7N/42.4W at 55 kts. I just got a 1245Z image. Looking more like an eye forming.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 261253
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1253 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070926 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 1200 070927 0000 070927 1200 070928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 42.4W 13.1N 45.7W 14.8N 48.8W 16.4N 51.4W
BAMD 11.7N 42.4W 12.7N 44.5W 14.3N 46.2W 16.0N 47.6W
BAMM 11.7N 42.4W 12.6N 45.0W 13.9N 47.4W 15.2N 49.2W
LBAR 11.7N 42.4W 12.8N 44.4W 14.2N 46.3W 15.7N 47.9W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 69KTS 71KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 69KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 1200 070929 1200 070930 1200 071001 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 54.0W 19.3N 57.5W 20.3N 59.3W 20.7N 59.8W
BAMD 17.7N 48.6W 20.4N 49.8W 23.3N 50.8W 27.6N 51.2W
BAMM 16.3N 50.9W 18.1N 53.2W 19.9N 54.4W 22.4N 55.0W
LBAR 17.0N 49.0W 19.1N 50.6W 21.2N 51.3W 23.7N 50.9W
SHIP 73KTS 67KTS 66KTS 64KTS
DSHP 73KTS 67KTS 66KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 42.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 38.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

[wxman57]

Here's a 1245Z image zoomed in more with the "X" where the 12Z models initialized:

[punkyg]

12Z model guidance has 11.7N/42.4W at 55 kts. I just got a 1245Z image. Looking more like an eye forming.

I'm going with wxman57
its a hurricane oh god run for your lives joke!
it does look like an eye forming.
is karen still moving to the west or has she started her nw track.

[cycloneye]

WNW at 285 degrees.

[Gustywind]

12Z model guidance has 11.7N/42.4W at 55 kts. I just got a 1245Z image. Looking more like an eye forming.

I'm going with wxman57
its a hurricane oh god run for your lives joke!
it does look like an eye forming.
is karen still moving to the west or has she started her nw track.

Humm..that's the 1000$ question lool hope that it's NW turn?!...
right now if no...waiting and see if this trend continues today or not!

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[deltadog03]

wxman you still plotting this thing moving around 280 or so??

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

wxman you still plotting this thing moving around 280 or so??

Hard to tell, but short-term motion looks 280, but that estimate could be 10 deg. off since I can't see the center well a few hours ago. I don't think it'll threaten the Caribbean or the east U.S. Coast, though. It's heading NW once it passes 45W, but that's not until tomorrow.

[flwxwatcher]

Interesting to note the EURO has been further west with each run the last few Days. Lets see if that model is picking up a trend . Interesting week ahead in the Tropics

[deltadog03]

Ok, cool.. The EURO does some crazy stuff with this cyclone. I just don't know how to take that. It almost looks like it traps it then drives it SW.

[Gustywind]

WNW movement agree but the last frame a light w movement..for my untrained eyes... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html

[HURAKAN]

Doing some "eye clearing!!"

[Gustywind]

Interesting to note the EURO has been further west with each run the last few Days. Lets see if that model is picking up a trend . Interesting week ahead in the Tropics

hope no don't say it too loud!

[Gustywind]

Note how karen is big....we can already see the left side of this feature on Meteo France sat pic used to track the weather in our vicinity if it approches near my island seems it's David versus Gooliath ....looking beautiful on this sat pic in spite on the high distance

[Gustywind]

Note how karen is big....we can already see the left side of this feature on Meteo France sat pic used to track the weather in our vicinity if it approches near my island seems it's David versus Gooliath ....looking beautiful on this sat pic in spite on the high distance

here's the pic
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 26 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-124

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0513A CYCLONE
C. 27/1430Z
D. 20.3N 97.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 74
A. 28/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0613A CYCLONE
C. 28/0230Z
D. 20.1N 96.7W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. TROPICAL STORM KAREN
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 43
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0312A KAREN
C. 27/2000Z
D. 15.3N 49.4W
E. 27/2300Z TO 28/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42
A. 28/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0412A KAREN
C. 28/0800Z
D. 16.5N 50.4W
E. 28/1100Z TO 27/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
FOR TD 13. TWO MORE P-3 MISSIONS FOR KAREN.


No remarks to cancel this afternoons mission,so is a go, at 4 PM EDT from Barbados.

[punkyg]

Don't worry i found one.