Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

Looking great this morning.

[Thunder44]

It looks like thunderstorms have increased and gotten better organized but as 4:50 CDT no significant pressure drops or wind increase at buoy 42055:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[HURAKAN]

Really strong convection now near or over the LLC.

[O Town]

Yeah rarley do you see that grey color. I was surprised this morning.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: Yeah rarley do you see that grey color. I was surprised this morning.

This system has always looked its best in the morning hours!!!

[drezee]

buoy 42055

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (CDT) WSPD WDIR
5:07 am 26.6 kts S ( 177 deg true )

likely tropical storm winds near the center

gusting to 29 knots

26/11 42055 22.0 -94.0 25.8 150 12 G 16 180 29 1010.6 0.7 29.2 42055

[Thunder44]

Using ADT, as of 1015 UTC the CI # is up to 2.4, ADJ T# is 2.7 and Raw T# 3.9 :

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt13L.html

[HURAKAN]

26/1145 UTC 21.1N 94.9W T2.5/2.5 13L -- Atlantic Ocean

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.7 4.0

[Derek Ortt]

very careful with the ADT

there is no eye. I have ran an ADT many times before on wide open waves and have got 4.0 numbers

[Thunder44]

very careful with the ADT

there is no eye. I have ran an ADT many times before on wide open waves and have got 4.0 numbers

I don't know how it gets a Raw T# of 4.0. I though it would be pretty much the same as ADJ T#

[HURAKAN]

Radar of Alvarado, México:

[CrazyC83]

I think the Raw T is just a short-term potential number, not a current number.

[Chacor]

315
WTNT33 KNHC 261431
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

...DEPRESSION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT
205 MILES...335 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS....AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.9 N...95.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


A LOT of rain:

Code: Select all

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED SEP 26 2007
 
 
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
 
                                             MAX RAINFALL
  DATE/TIME      LOCATION       MOTION      MEAN      LAST
 -----------   ------------     ------     -------   -------
 26/1215 UTC   21.0N  95.0W     180/02     38.4 IN   35.3 IN
 
 
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
 
     DISTANCE          LEFT OF CENTER      RIGHT OF CENTER
   -------------      ---------------      ---------------
   0 TO 1 DEGREE      12.0 TO 27.8 IN       6.2 TO 11.7 IN
   1 TO 2 DEGREE      22.8 TO 35.3 IN       0.3 TO  6.4 IN
   2 TO 3 DEGREE       7.9 TO 23.1 IN       0.0 TO  4.2 IN
   3 TO 4 DEGREE       0.9 TO  8.1 IN       0.0 TO  2.3 IN

[cycloneye]

315
WTNT33 KNHC 261431
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

...DEPRESSION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT
205 MILES...335 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS....AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.9 N...95.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

071
WTNT23 KNHC 261431
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 95.0W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 95.0W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 95.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 95.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.3N 95.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 96.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 97.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

308
WTNT43 KNHC 261445
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION OF
THE DEPRESSION'S CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 30 AND 35 KT
RESPECTIVELY. WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
FIX SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM HAS INDEED
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE
VICINITY OF TUXPAN MEXICO IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...AND AWAY FROM
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW THAT THE
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...PARTICULARLY IF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 180/2. A WEAK STEERING CURRENT
HAS PREVAILED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY MOVE QUITE SLOWLY
AND ERRATICALLY TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATES THE
ABOVEMENTIONED MOTION...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST
THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED... HOWEVER...THAT ALL OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC PACKAGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 20.9N 95.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 20.7N 95.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 95.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 20.3N 95.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 20.1N 96.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 20.0N 97.7W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 261438
AF301 0313A CYCLONE HDOB 04 20070926
143100 2951N 08925W 5476 05158 0260 -041 -095 304002 003 999 999 03
143130 2949N 08927W 5370 05307 0263 -049 -083 231001 003 999 999 03
143200 2948N 08928W 5200 05568 0284 -057 -123 259008 009 999 999 03
143230 2946N 08930W 5095 05729 0295 -067 -135 243009 009 999 999 03
143300 2945N 08931W 5018 05856 0309 -073 -141 252007 008 999 999 03
143330 2943N 08933W 4942 05977 0318 -083 -143 269007 008 999 999 03
143400 2942N 08935W 4860 06114 0331 -091 -155 268008 009 999 999 03
143430 2940N 08936W 4780 06232 0328 -099 -173 236007 007 999 999 03
143500 2938N 08938W 4707 06356 0340 -109 -173 233006 007 999 999 03
143530 2937N 08939W 4644 06462 0347 -117 -155 245005 006 999 999 03
143600 2935N 08941W 4585 06544 0337 -125 -163 275005 006 999 999 03
143630 2933N 08943W 4533 06628 0338 -125 -177 287003 003 999 999 03
143700 2932N 08945W 4469 06729 0337 -127 -179 299005 005 999 999 03
143730 2930N 08946W 4409 06826 0336 -135 -193 324006 007 999 999 03
143800 2929N 08948W 4371 06897 0344 -141 -191 348009 009 999 999 03
143830 2927N 08950W 4326 06984 0358 -145 -187 353011 012 999 999 03
143900 2925N 08951W 4262 07114 0380 -139 -227 342012 013 999 999 03
143930 2923N 08953W 4200 07226 0388 -143 -287 339015 015 999 999 03
144000 2922N 08955W 4143 07331 0395 -149 -301 329015 016 999 999 03
144030 2920N 08957W 4072 07464 0406 -157 -303 333013 013 999 999 03

New mission en route.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 261448
AF301 0313A CYCLONE HDOB 05 20070926
144100 2918N 08958W 4030 07538 0406 -163 -269 335013 013 999 999 03
144130 2917N 09000W 3988 07621 0416 -169 -169 328014 015 999 999 05
144200 2915N 09001W 3950 07696 0422 -175 -175 321016 017 999 999 05
144230 2914N 09003W 3928 07739 0426 -181 -181 321017 017 999 999 05
144300 2912N 09005W 3928 07741 0428 -181 -181 320018 019 999 999 05
144330 2910N 09006W 3927 07742 0427 -181 -181 321017 017 999 999 05
144400 2909N 09008W 3927 07743 0428 -181 -181 323017 017 999 999 05
144430 2907N 09010W 3927 07745 0430 -181 -319 324016 016 999 999 03
144500 2905N 09011W 3927 07745 0430 -181 -339 324015 016 999 999 03
144530 2903N 09013W 3927 07746 0431 -181 -337 326016 016 999 999 03
144600 2902N 09015W 3927 07747 0432 -181 -323 328015 015 999 999 03
144630 2900N 09016W 3927 07744 0429 -181 -301 329016 016 999 999 03
144700 2858N 09018W 3927 07745 0430 -181 -309 331016 016 999 999 03
144730 2857N 09019W 3927 07746 0431 -181 -305 330016 016 999 999 03
144800 2855N 09021W 3927 07746 0431 -181 -307 328016 016 999 999 03
144830 2853N 09023W 3927 07745 0430 -181 -307 330016 016 999 999 03
144900 2851N 09024W 3926 07747 0431 -179 -307 328017 017 999 999 03
144930 2850N 09026W 3927 07746 0432 -175 -307 329017 017 999 999 03
145000 2848N 09027W 3926 07748 0432 -175 -307 329017 017 999 999 03
145030 2846N 09029W 3927 07744 0430 -175 -307 330016 017 999 999 03

[Brent]

If this is not Lorenzo right now I'll be shocked...

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 261458
AF301 0313A CYCLONE HDOB 06 20070926
145100 2845N 09031W 3927 07746 0431 -175 -309 330016 016 999 999 03
145130 2843N 09032W 3926 07748 0432 -175 -307 330017 017 999 999 03
145200 2841N 09034W 3926 07748 0432 -175 -311 329017 018 999 999 03
145230 2839N 09036W 3926 07748 0432 -175 -311 330018 018 999 999 03
145300 2838N 09037W 3927 07748 0433 -175 -309 331018 019 999 999 03
145330 2836N 09039W 3926 07750 0434 -175 -313 330019 019 999 999 03
145400 2834N 09040W 3927 07747 0432 -173 -313 329019 019 999 999 03
145430 2833N 09042W 3926 07750 0433 -171 -317 327020 020 999 999 03
145500 2831N 09043W 3927 07747 0433 -171 -317 327019 019 999 999 03
145530 2829N 09045W 3926 07749 0433 -171 -313 329019 019 999 999 03
145600 2827N 09047W 3927 07748 0433 -171 -317 331018 019 999 999 03
145630 2826N 09048W 3927 07748 0433 -171 -315 331018 019 999 999 03
145700 2824N 09050W 3926 07749 0433 -171 -319 330020 020 999 999 03
145730 2822N 09051W 3927 07748 0433 -167 -327 333021 021 999 999 03
145800 2820N 09053W 3927 07748 0433 -165 -327 335020 020 999 999 03
145830 2819N 09055W 3927 07748 0433 -165 -331 335020 020 999 999 03
145900 2817N 09056W 3927 07747 0432 -165 -331 335020 020 999 999 03
145930 2815N 09058W 3926 07749 0433 -171 -329 331022 023 999 999 03
150000 2813N 09100W 3927 07747 0433 -171 -321 332022 023 999 999 03
150030 2812N 09101W 3926 07750 0433 -175 -321 335021 021 999 999 03

As usual, flight info for GoogleEarth is available on: http://wxgr.nl/?weer_recon.htm

[Sanibel]

Nice convection. Another BOC-hugger.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 261509
AF301 0313A CYCLONE HDOB 07 20070926
150100 2810N 09103W 3927 07749 0434 -173 -323 335022 022 999 999 03
150130 2808N 09104W 3928 07748 0435 -173 -321 338021 021 999 999 03
150200 2807N 09106W 3926 07749 0433 -169 -321 338022 022 999 999 03
150230 2805N 09108W 3927 07747 0432 -169 -325 338022 023 999 999 03
150300 2803N 09109W 3926 07750 0433 -175 -295 347018 019 999 999 03
150330 2801N 09111W 3927 07749 0434 -173 -275 345018 019 999 999 03
150400 2800N 09112W 3927 07748 0434 -167 -287 343020 021 999 999 03
150430 2758N 09114W 3926 07750 0433 -171 -301 342019 020 999 999 03
150500 2756N 09116W 3926 07751 0434 -171 -295 347017 017 999 999 03
150530 2754N 09117W 3927 07748 0433 -165 -317 349017 017 999 999 03
150600 2753N 09119W 3927 07748 0433 -169 -309 352017 017 999 999 03
150630 2751N 09120W 3926 07749 0433 -169 -331 353017 018 999 999 03
150700 2749N 09122W 3926 07750 0434 -167 -323 354017 017 999 999 03
150730 2747N 09124W 3927 07747 0433 -173 -277 350018 018 999 999 03
150800 2745N 09125W 3927 07747 0432 -167 -313 357018 018 999 999 03
150830 2744N 09127W 3927 07747 0433 -169 -317 356019 021 999 999 03
150900 2742N 09129W 3927 07748 0433 -175 -241 353022 023 999 999 03
150930 2740N 09130W 3926 07749 0433 -173 -245 355023 024 999 999 03
151000 2738N 09132W 3927 07748 0433 -169 -277 359021 023 999 999 03
151030 2736N 09134W 3927 07746 0431 -159 -319 360019 019 999 999 03