Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

672
WHXX04 KWBC 261127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM KAREN 12L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.1 41.7 280./12.0
6 11.0 42.6 267./ 8.4
12 11.4 44.0 286./14.7
18 11.8 45.0 289./10.0
24 12.5 45.8 315./10.7
30 13.3 46.9 306./13.6
36 14.0 47.9 302./11.9
42 14.6 48.5 315./ 8.0
48 15.1 49.3 305./ 9.8
54 15.6 50.1 301./ 9.1
60 16.2 50.9 308./ 9.5
66 16.5 51.8 287./ 9.0
72 16.8 52.7 288./ 9.2
78 17.2 53.2 310./ 6.6
84 17.4 53.9 286./ 7.5
90 17.8 54.4 309./ 6.2
96 18.4 54.9 319./ 6.9
102 19.2 55.2 340./ 8.4
108 19.5 55.8 301./ 6.8
114 19.9 56.1 326./ 4.7
120 19.8 56.7 262./ 5.8
126 20.4 56.3 36./ 6.4

[Evil Jeremy]

Jeremy,

Can you post the GFDL 6Z I'm unable to retrieve it for some reason..

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_12.gif

[cycloneye]

WTNT80 EGRR 260533



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.09.2007



TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 40.2W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 26.09.2007 11.1N 40.2W WEAK

12UTC 26.09.2007 11.4N 43.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.09.2007 12.8N 44.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.09.2007 14.1N 46.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 28.09.2007 15.3N 48.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.09.2007 16.6N 49.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.09.2007 17.4N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.09.2007 18.2N 52.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.09.2007 18.9N 53.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.09.2007 19.3N 54.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.10.2007 19.4N 55.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.10.2007 19.3N 56.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.10.2007 19.7N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

The UKMET text for the 00z run.More west.

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL also weakens the system to a wave

[Gustywind]

Dry air does'nt have much influence in vicinity of Karen ...note the convective activity further east ok Karen...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL is a wave, jeremy

it is not what you are thinking... no need for alarm from that model

[Thunder44]

Dvorak T# up to 3.5:

26/1145 UTC 11.8N 42.1W T3.5/3.5 KAREN

[cycloneye]

Almost a hurricane.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 261114
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
714 AM AST WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL STORM KAREN...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 11.2N AND
42.1W...CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...WHILE HEADING WEST AT
A SPEED NEAR 11 KT. THIS STORM CURRENTLY HAS WINDS OF 45 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS...WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS
STORM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Almost a hurricane.

yeah cycloneye tkanks !

[HURAKAN]

AN EYE???

[Derek Ortt]

no eye... center appears south of the convection

seems like a terrible fix by SSD... nearly .5 degrees too far north

QS confirms my thoughts

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas112.png

[brunota2003]

no eye... center appears south of the convection

seems like a terrible fix by SSD... nearly .5 degrees too far north

QS confirms my thoughts

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas112.png

Yeah, but that QS shot also shows 50 knot wind vectors in it that are not contaminated.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah... I agree this is a 50KT storm

[Gustywind]

Latest NRL site : 1215 UTC 1000 hpa 11,N 41.5W 45 kts
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

[Thunder44]

no eye... center appears south of the convection

seems like a terrible fix by SSD... nearly .5 degrees too far north

QS confirms my thoughts

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas112.png

I'm not so sure. The latest visible imagery shows rotation in that clear area. Maybe the MLC and LLC have decoupled but the QS pass is also about 4 hours old.

[brunota2003]

I think it might actually be closer to 55 knots, I couldnt see all the lines, too crowded on that shot. But, we'll probably have to wait for that recon flight this evening into tonight to determine the true strength. Ought to be an interesting flight.

[cycloneye]

DVORAK Image



Where is the center.

[Derek Ortt]

the recon may need to be delayed since this is a little farther east than originally expected

They need to be at about 46-47W to do the proper pattern for the HWRF (they need about 4 hours in the storm to complete the pattern... these are not simple alpha patterns)

[wxman57]

That clearing caught my eye, too, as possibly being an eye. I made a McIDAS image and put a red "X" where the 12Z Dvorak put the center, and it is in that area. Earlier, I put the center a little west of there but still at 11.7 or 11.8N. Now, I'm not so sure that's not an eye forming. It'll take a few more images to be sure. Sometimes banding convection can fool you.